Monday Insider

By Chad Ford

We're finally a week away from the NBA Finals, and if things go according to plan, both the Lakers and the Pistons will wrap up their berths in the Finals on Monday and Tuesday. Both conference finals have been close enough that it's impossible to completely rule out a Wolves or Pacers comeback, but given their relative playoff inexperience, I think you can start banking on a Lakers-Pistons Finals.

It's 1989 all over again. The new school showtime (courtesy of Celebrity Justice) versus the new school bad boys (led by Big Ben, a guy who would've scared the hell out of Bill Lambeer and Dennis Rodman back in the day).

I won't bother reminding Insider readers that I picked the two teams to meet each other in the Finals at the start of the season and did again just a week before the playoffs again. If I'm staying true to my predictions, then I still have the Lakers winning in seven. Nothing I've seen changes that prediction. The Lakers have proved once again that when Shaq is focused L.A. will beat anyone.

With that said, I think the Pistons are really poised to give the Lakers a real scare. They're the only team in the East with a front line that can do something about Shaq and a backcourt that can handcuff Kobe. In fact, the only other teams in the league that can really make that claim are the Spurs and possibly the Kings. Still, I think that Larry Brown's refusal to get more creative offensively (by giving more playing time to guys like Mehmet Okur) will be the downfall of the Pistons.

Speaking of downfalls, have you ever heard such doomsday talk about two teams competing for an NBA title? Over the past week the Lakers and Pistons have grabbed plenty of headlines, not for what their doing on the court, but for what they might be doing off the court this summer.


If Kobe Bryant wants out of L.A., his options might be limited.
# The speculation continues to gather steam in L.A. that Kobe Bryant may want out of there at the end of the season. It already seems like a given the Phil Jackson will be gone. Kobe, lately, looked like he'd be more willing to stay if Phil (and possibly Shaq) were shown the door. However, that was based, in part, on theories that Byron Scott (a close friend of Kobe's) would take over head coaching duties. Scott just took a job in New Orleans, squelching that rumor.

This week, however, the speculation has turned again to Kobe leaving with "sources" close to Kobe telling everyone who will listen that he wants out. Two months ago, the rumor du jour was the Clippers, who have the free-agent money (and possibly the sign-and-trade chips -- Dwight Howard and Quentin Richardson anyone?) to make it happen. Now the high-level chatter in the league claims that it could be the Spurs or the Suns who take home the prize. That will be more difficult to accomplish without Kobe taking a pay cut.

For the Spurs to do it, they'd have to cut loose two valuable free agents -- Manu Ginobili and Hedo Turkoglu. They'd do it to get Kobe, but they'd be awfully thin everywhere else if they go that route. I know several top teams with lots of free-agent money to spend that would love for Ginobili and Turkoglu to be on the market.

For the Suns to get it done, they'd have to ship out their No. 7 pick and at least one big salary (Jahidi White's in the last year of his deal) to get the money they need to sign Kobe. Or, they could try to trade Shawn Marion to a team with cap space or a big man. The Suns are fiscally pretty conservative and probably don't won't both max contracts on their books.

A Marion-for-Mehmet Okur sign-and-trade swap might make sense for both the Suns and the Pistons if Kobe came on board. The Suns could easily slide Joe Johnson over to the three to make that happen. Ironically, moving Marion for cap space would open up enough room for them to sign one more decent free agent in the process.

Any way you look at it, the Lakers, who are now the favorites to win it all, will likely be going through some serious changes this summer. Name the last championship team that faced such significant turnover in the months following its victory.

# The Pistons, too, could face some serious changes in the summer. Although their main stars -- Richard Hamilton and Ben Wallace -- are locked up, there continues to be big-time question marks about the futures of both Rasheed Wallace and Mehmet Okur. The Pistons, right now, don't have enough money to sign both. Okur is expected to get a significant offer in free agency this summer from either the Suns (if Kobe falls through), the Jazz or the Nuggets.


Mehmet Okur could soon be on the move.
It's clear that Larry Brown isn't an Okur fan. That has to ruffle Joe Dumars and the Pistons' front office, whom love Okur and want him to be part of the Pistons' future. Brown's treatment of Okur will likely push him out the door, even if the Pistons had the cash to re-sign him.

It's had other residual effects as well. Last year's second first-round pick, Carlos Delfino, told Insider back in May that he was seriously considering staying in Europe another season because he was concerned with how Brown was treating Okur and Darko Milicic. That's a major blow to the Pistons, who believe that Delfino could've played a big role for the Pistons this season.

If the Pistons lose both Okur and Delfino next year, they still have a chance to re-sign Rasheed, but would be arguably weaker at two key positions. That concern will be lightened if Brown decides to let Darko play next year. One theory, in fact, is that the Pistons wouldn't mind losing Okur if it meant that Darko got 15 to 20 minutes a game next year. Everyone in Detroit is still very high on Darko and believes he has more upside than either Okur or Sheed. Ben Wallace recently told the Detroit media that he believes Darko is ready to come in and play an important role on the Pistons next year.

"He's the future," Ben Wallace said. "Anyone can see that."

"He's come a long way since training camp," he added. "We bumped him up a little bit at first, and he'd be looking to the coaches for a whistle. But he got in the weight room, he got stronger and more physical, and pretty soon he was bringing that to the floor, not looking to the coaches for that whistle any more.

"Anybody his age would be frustrated by not playing, especially the No. 2 pick. Especially when you see the one and three picks, LeBron and Carmelo. It's frustrating to spend most of your time waiting. But he's playing behind good players and playing on a winning team. It will make him a great player.

"He's definitely the future of this team. The sky's the limit for him. He just has to relax and play basketball. There's nothing he can't do. He can shoot the ball, post up, dribble, rebound, block shots. I haven't seen anything yet he can't do."

Except, that is, convincing Brown to give him playing time.

However, Darko addresses just one of the Pistons needs next year. They still need more help in the backcourt and another consistent scoring option besides Hamilton. Given that Rasheed is always going to be inconsistent to a degree and isn't getting any younger, could Dumars shock everyone and let both Wallace and Okur go?

Doing so would free up roughly $10 million in cap room to pursue a free agent of Detroit's choosing. If Dumars is able to move Elden Campbell to the Bobcats in the expansion draft, that number swells to $15 million. The fact that the Pistons have a first-class organization and are established might convince a top free agent (read Kobe or Kenyon Martin) to leave his digs for a chance to win it all in the East.

Or, Dumars could use either Okur (to the Suns for Marion?) or Wallace as sign-and-trade bait. As good as Sheed has been this season and as much upside as Okur has, there are better options out there for the Pistons than either Okur or Sheed.

Don't be shocked at all to see Dumars, win or lose this season, to shake it up again this summer.

Joe got a nice chess board to play with this summer.

Should be fun to watch.

Okur for Marion? That would be a killer.

Not to mention...what use does PHX have for Okur? Last time I checked the 4 spot was filled by a young guy named Amare....

The Matrix if on the block can get so much more then Okur....

yeah, but not for $12 million a year...he'd be lucky to get $8 million imo...& again, the level of talent needs to be evened out for Phoenix to even consider trading Marion to Detroit.

I totally agree. Some people are saying that the guy is going to earn 8 million this Summer. What are they on crack? lol. He hasn't done tihs this year, to earn that. Call me crazy, but I don't think providing solid play off the bench is enough to warrant money that a boarderline all star (Allan Houston, pre 100 mil) would make.

Honestly, at this point, he's worth nothing more than like, 5 million.

Do you guys not know how to work with the cap. They are trading Marion for cap space. If they offer Detroit Marion who makes more than Okur then they can get in return cap space + Okur. This allows them to make a serious run at Kobe. Pesonally I don't think the Pistons do this deal they have Prince at SF why would they need Marion and his huge contract.

Posted by Vmart:

Do you guys not know how to work with the cap. They are trading Marion for cap space. If they offer Detroit Marion who makes more than Okur then they can get in return cap space + Okur. This allows them to make a serious run at Kobe. Pesonally I don't think the Pistons do this deal they have Prince at SF why would they need Marion and his huge contract.

& just who would you add in as cap filler in that trade? Elden Campbell is the only contract that they have that isn't signed past next season...so let's say they decide they'll take Okur & Campbell for Marion for argument's sake...how are they going to get immediate cap relief & unload Elden Campbell's salary? the only way to do that is by having Charlotte take him in the expansion draft...so all these things have to fall in line for that deal to have any chance of happening whatsoever...& besides that, the Phoenix fans would go absolutely NUTS if they traded the Matrix for an unproven Okur & cap fodder, unless they were getting a draft pick or something else in the deal...even in the Marbury deal, the Suns got a couple of promising prospects & two 1st round picks on top of unloading Penny's contract & getting the expiring contracts of Dice & Ward in return.

[Edited by - TMS on 06/02/2004 13:43:20]

To be honest, I still like Chad. Chad's job is to fly around, visit Europe and write about prospects. He gets god stories and interviews and does as good a job scouting as any. Once the players actually make the NBA he should just clam up, because he's lost. His annual "how to fix the whover" article are terrible and Sam Smith and Vecsey come up with better trade ideas. I think Chad falls so in love with some of his prospects he forgets that only a handfull of guys drafted every year actually have decent careers in this league.

Just remember, Chad writes pay articles and part of that job is to generate buzz, hype and controversy. ESPN is pretty reputable in general, but its still journalism and they still need to sell.