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VCoug
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7/23/2014  1:53 PM
dk7th wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Last year there metrics predicted 37 wins

We won 37 games

How about the year before? The predicted far less than 54 wins.

No, they didn't. The metrics that predicted 37 wins last season predicted something like 57 wins two years ago.

nope. 45.5 wins. i provided the link earlier but here it is again:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2433

Sorry, I was thinking of Wages of Wins. They predicted we would win 55 games two years ago and 34 wins last season.

Now the joy of my world is in Zion How beautiful if nothing more Than to wait at Zion's door I've never been in love like this before Now let me pray to keep you from The perils that will surely come
AUTOADVERT
gunsnewing
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7/23/2014  1:58 PM
^nice

Certainly has Vegas beat
dk7th
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7/23/2014  2:31 PM
VCoug wrote:
dk7th wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Last year there metrics predicted 37 wins

We won 37 games

How about the year before? The predicted far less than 54 wins.

No, they didn't. The metrics that predicted 37 wins last season predicted something like 57 wins two years ago.

nope. 45.5 wins. i provided the link earlier but here it is again:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2433

Sorry, I was thinking of Wages of Wins. They predicted we would win 55 games two years ago and 34 wins last season.

aha. and when do these guys come out with the upcoming season's predictions-- gotta admit that's pretty good predicting!

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
gunsnewing
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7/23/2014  2:34 PM    LAST EDITED: 7/23/2014  3:58 PM
Bonn what's your take on Wages of Wins? Feel like you've addressed it before...
VCoug
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7/23/2014  2:47 PM
dk7th wrote:
VCoug wrote:
dk7th wrote:
VCoug wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Last year there metrics predicted 37 wins

We won 37 games

How about the year before? The predicted far less than 54 wins.

No, they didn't. The metrics that predicted 37 wins last season predicted something like 57 wins two years ago.

nope. 45.5 wins. i provided the link earlier but here it is again:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2433

Sorry, I was thinking of Wages of Wins. They predicted we would win 55 games two years ago and 34 wins last season.

aha. and when do these guys come out with the upcoming season's predictions-- gotta admit that's pretty good predicting!

Usually in October, right before the season begins. That way they can take into account free agency and trades.

Now the joy of my world is in Zion How beautiful if nothing more Than to wait at Zion's door I've never been in love like this before Now let me pray to keep you from The perils that will surely come
gunsnewing
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7/23/2014  2:59 PM
Nice
dk7th
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7/23/2014  3:06 PM
dk7th wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:
Knixkik wrote:
gunsnewing wrote:Last year there metrics predicted 37 wins

We won 37 games

How about the year before? The predicted far less than 54 wins.

Using metrics?

i found this, so yes:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2433

note the date is october 30th. prigioni stepped in to kidd's role and was an unknown. i am not saying he alone accounted for the extra 9.5 wins. i also think the prediction system could not have predicted the tremendous influence kidd had on the team in the earlier part of the season, along with rasheed. remember the knicks went .500 after he and sheed lost the battle to father time.

how much better would they have done had kidd has more left in the tank?

just found this from wages of wins..... it's nice to have my intuitions corroborated:

http://wagesofwins.com/2014/07/18/apparently-bill-simmons-hasnt-heard-of-jason-kidd/

knicks win 38-43 games in 16-17. rose MUST shoot no more than 14 shots per game, defer to kp6 + melo, and have a usage rate of less than 25%
Bonn1997
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7/23/2014  3:28 PM
gunsnewing wrote:Bonn what's your take on Wages or Wins? Feel like you've addressed it before...

Those are the guys who use the wins produced stat, which is ok but is often criticized for giving too much weight to rebounding. I defintely wouldn't ignore the stat. It's part of the picture.
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