'Sheed can guarantee future in Detroit

By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Monday, May 24
Updated: May 24
11:54 AM ET

Joe Namath once guaranteed a Jets victory in the Super Bowl, forever immortalizing himself in the upper pantheon of sports heros. They say immitation is the ultimate form of flattery and, over the years, the playoff "guarantee" has become the staple of the NBA star whose team is on the ropes.

When an NBA star "guarantees" victory, what does that mean? The most plausible explanation is the star is saying he won't let his team lose. To make such a bold proclamation, you normally have to be the guy with the greatest ability to affect the outcome of the game.

But what happens when someone else makes the prediction? What happens when the ball boy, the trainer or, dare we say Rasheed Wallace, guarantees victory?

You've got to love the fact that, after ignoring the media for the last decade, when Rasheed finally chose to say something other than "both teams played hard," the words coming out of his mouth were actually interesting.

Just minutes after the Pistons lost Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals to the Pacers on Saturday, 'Sheed stepped in front of the media throng and did what hunderds of players had done before him -- he guaranteed victory in Game 2.

"I'm guaranteeing Game 2. That's the bottom line. That's all I'm saying. They will not win Game 2. You heard that from me. Ya'll can print whatever you want. Put it on the front page, back page, middle of the page. They will not win Game 2."

On Sunday, he wasn't backtracking.

"I said it last night, and I'm saying it again: We will win Game 2," Wallace said. "I'm not trying to sound ignorant or anything, but we will win."


Wallace will need plenty of help from his teammates to make good on his promise.
Last time we checked, however, basketball was a team game, and no one else on the Pistons was quite ready to backup 'Sheed's claim. Maybe that's because 'Sheed's four-point, seven-rebound performance in Game 1 didn't exactly instill confidence in his teammates. Maybe it's because, in the playoffs, 'Sheed is actually averaging just 12.4 ppg and 7.6 rpg on 41 percent shooting. He's shooting 23 percent from behind the 3-point arc and averaging more turnovers than assists.

The whole idea of "guaranteeing" victory is a silly ritual to begin with, but when it's done by a guy who isn't even the second-most important player on his team, it becomes flat out ridiculous.

These last 13 playoff games have been all about two people for the Pistons -- Richard Hamilton and Ben Wallace. Hamilton has been money throughout the playoffs, averaging 20.6 ppg, shooting 41 percent from 3, dishing out 4.4 apg and, many times, carrying his team. Surprisingly, he's also been the most consistent defensively.

Ben Wallace has been his regular, dominant self in the paint. He's averaging 14.5 rpg, 2.85 bpg and grabbed an impressive 22 rebounds in the series opener in Indiana. He's the heart and soul of a Pistons team that relies on its tough, aggressive defense to win.

If anyone should be making guarantees, it's those guys. Instead, on Sunday, they were forced into cliché mode trying to deflect the ramifications of 'Sheed's promise. Unlike 'Sheed, who may or may not decide to show up on Monday, his teammates will now have to carry the burden of his promises.

"Ain't no pressure on me," Ben Wallace said. "We put pressure on ourselves. We're ready. We have to prepare ourselves. If that's what it takes, then that's what it takes. We put ourselves in a tough situation. We just have to come out and play basketball."

Even coach Larry Brown was hesitant to back 'Sheed, given that he gets in foul trouble early and spends a lot of time waving towels from the bench.

"Knowing him, he feels responsible for the game last night," Brown said. "But again, the guy's in foul trouble right off the bat in almost every game. ... I think it was in the heat of the moment. He was upset with the way the game went, and he just said that. But we have to play. It ain't about Rasheed only; it's about all of us. We got to get it done."

No, 'Sheed has to get it done. His performance in Game 2 could have ramifications that reverberate through the Pistons' organization all summer. If 'Sheed is true to his word and leads the Pistons to victory in Indiana (the Pacers haven't lost at home in the playoffs), he may very well prove something he has been unable to prove throughout his career -- that he's a leader who has the ability to step up in big games.


Mehmet Okur
Forward-Center
Detroit Pistons
Profile


2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
71 9.6 5.9 1.0 .463 .775

We've known forever that 'Sheed has the talent to be a top-10 player in the league. The questions are about his head. He can answer them for Joe Dumars and his teammates by making good on his promise tonight, by leading his team to victory.

If he fails, as he's done for too much of the series, the questions will only loom larger. Dumars has before him one of the toughest decisions any GM will face this summer. He wants to re-sign both 'Sheed and Mehmet Okur, but he might not have the money to do it. Do you give 'Sheed the big deal and hope this year wasn't a contract-year act? Or do you go with the younger, tougher, but not as talented (or expensive) Okur?

'Sheed can make Dumars' decision for him by playing a key role in a Pistons' victory tonight. If he doesn't, the questions will grow more clouded as the Pistons hang on for dear life in the playoffs with an interesting summer looming.

Around the League: Playoffs

# Lakers Shaqued: There isn't much to write about the Timberwolves-Lakers series at this point. The series is tied one-one, and just about everyone has this series figured out. If Shaq decides to show up and play, the Lakers steamroll the Wolves. If he takes the day off, like he did Sunday night in Minnesota, the Lakers are in trouble. Big trouble.

Shaq followed a dominant Game 1 performance (27 points, 18 rebounds) with a dreadful 14-point stinker in Game 2. Yes, the Timberwolves hounded O'Neal all night and did a good job keeping him from catching the ball in the paint, but 10 shots from the most dominant basketball player in the world was about more than good defense. Shaq decided not to play hard in Game 2, an ever-increasing phenomenon that has to drive the Lakers nuts.

"They played a little bit harder than we did," Shaq told reporters after the game. What he meant was that everyone on the Wolves, including backup point guard Darrick Martin (15 points), played harder than he did.

"It's not about the Timberwolves or the officials or anything else," said Derek Fisher. "It's about the way we play the game as a team." What he meant was that it's about the way Shaq plays the game.

The good news for Lakers fans is that Shaq is always capable of turning it on when the Lakers need him. He promised a different team would show up in L.A. on Tuesday.

"A little bit disappointed, but it happens. I won't be looking to go 4-for-10 in L.A. Guys are a little upset. I know how we're going to react on Tuesday when we play." What he meant was that he knows how Shaq is going to react on Tuesday. That could be very bad news for the Wolves.

Around the League: Offseason

# T-Mac's choice: We've got breaking news folks. The Magic have been waiting on pins and needles all summer as Tracy McGrady decided whether he'd opt out of his contract in 2005 and bolt the Magic. It sounds like T-Mac already has made up his mind.


Tracy McGrady
Shooting Guard
Orlando Magic
Profile


2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
67 28.0 6.0 5.5 .417 .796

"I know exactly what I'm going to do," he told the N.Y. Times on Saturday. Whew! Here we go Magic fans. Brace yourself. Drumroll please ...

"I don't know; we'll see. I haven't made up my mind yet, but I kind of have an idea of what I want to do."

There you go, Magic brass. T-Mac knows exactly that he kind of has an idea about what he wants to do. I'm sure that's really going to help the team's offseason planning.

The Magic have been hoping since the season ended that McGrady would reveal his decision early. If he's going to stay, the team's draft strategy and free-agent policy will be geared toward finding veteran college and NBA players who can contribute immediately.

If he's going to bolt, the team would like to trade him now and start rebuilding from scratch. That affects everything from the draft, to the expansion draft to free agency.

For now, at least, McGrady is still holding his team hostage. Rumors have been rampant all summer that he wants out but would prefer to opt out and become a free agent rather than be traded, so he can pick his team. Expect the Magic to know more after Wednesday's draft lottery. If the team wins the No. 1 pick (they have the best chance, 25 percent) they'll likely add the one player in the draft -- Emeka Okafor -- who has a real shot at contributing right away.

That could lead to a number of scenarios that allow the Magic to build a contender heading into next season. If they don't land the top pick, they'll probably have to face the reality that there's not a lot of hope of turning the team around this year.

# Kenyon to the max: Now that the Nets' season is over, the team turns its attention to re-signing restricted free agent Kenyon Martin. The two sides were far apart in contract negotiations last summer. Martin wanted the maximum; the Nets were offering significantly less.

With Martin's strong play throughout the year and in the playoffs, the team's position has undeniably changed. However, a source inside the Nets told Insider the team still doesn't believe Martin is a max player and is praying another team with cap room doesn't offer him a max deal and force New Jersey to decide whether to match.


Kenyon Martin
Power Forward
New Jersey Nets
Profile


2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
65 16.7 9.5 2.5 .488 .684

The Nets are probably out of luck. Several teams have a lot of cap room. The Hawks, for one, need an athletic four in the worst way and have so much cap room at their disposal they'll be willing to overpay a bit to jump-start the rebuilding process. Don't be surprised if Atlanta comes out of the gates swinging and presents Martin an offer sheet for six years at the maximum salary. They have so much money that doing so will not hurt their ability to sign another free agent while the Nets take their 15 days to decide whether to match.

That will put enormous pressure on the Nets. They don't want to pay Martin the max, but they don't want to lose him for nothing, either. Chances are the Nets will match the offer, then explore other ways to cut costs. With Richard Jefferson and Jason Collins looking for contract extensions this summer, their payroll (already an enormous $59.9 million next year) could swell out of control in a matter of months.

# Did Cohan or Mullin hire Montgomery? Chris Mullin has been in charge of the Warriors for only a few weeks, and already there are whispers coming out of the Bay that owner Chris Cohan has usurped Mullins' power. Several reports out of the Bay Area, based mostly on speculation, claim Stanford coach Mike Montgomery was Cohan's choice to lead the Warriors in the post-Eric Musselman era.

The same sentiment is running high among NBA GMs who are stunned by the hire. Hiring a local college stud like Montgomery usually only happens when an owner is looking for a nice PR bump. The fact Mullin, a former player, would hire someone like Montgomery is stunning to just about everyone.

Montgomery himself also stumbled out of the gate at his press conference when he made a statement that just reeked of a college coach ready to go out and teach his "student-athletes."

"I've got to believe there are a lot of players in the NBA that want to learn," Montgomery said. "I'm just not convinced this can't be done the right way."

Musselman believed the same thing. Most of the players under his tutelage improved dramatically. It got him fired in two years not because of the results, but because the players chaffed at being forced to do things "the right way."

Montgomery also claimed the reason other college coaches had failed before him were because of troubled organizations.

"The NBA is really hard if you're not in a good organization, if you don't have good ownership, if you don't have good leadership," he said. "The guys who have gone straight from college to the NBA and not done well, in most instances, they got into very bad situations."

True enough. But what does Montgomery think he's getting into? The Warriors are in the midst of the largest current playoff drought in the NBA. Their owner is widely regarded as the second worst in the league, ahead of only the Clippers' Donald Sterling. Their front office essentially has been inept for the last decade. Chances are the team will lose both its centers to free agency this summer without an ounce of compensation.

He's in the very definition of a very bad situation, and, if he's right about college coaches' success rates in bad organizations, he'll be back coaching college next year.

Around the League: Draft

# Who shot J.R.? Here's the funny thing about teenagers and the NBA draft. One minute they can look like super heros, and the next ... like they should seriously consider spending a few years in college. Just a day after high school phenom J.R. Smith told Insider that he hired an agent, destroying his college eligibility, he went into a workout in front of the Blazers and Jazz and laid a tremendous egg.

Smith, who was working out against Texas Tech's Andre Emmett, was awful. Insider was in the Santa Monica gym on Friday to witness the massacre. Smith's outside jumper, the one he stunned scouts with at the high school all-stars games, was in rare, poor form. His shot kept coming up short in shooting drills and looked even worse when Emmett put a hand in his face.

But that wasn't the real concern. It looked like Smith hurt his shoulder near the start of the workout. Even if the injury wasn't serious, scouts have seen enough of him to know he's a great perimeter shooter. One bad shooting day in a gym won't kill your stock.

What will, however, is laziness. Smith had zero energy in his workout and a total lack of intensity. For most of the workout he was going at half speed, and Emmett made him pay. Emmett consistently drove past Smith, whose defense was almost non-existent. Offensively, Smith struggled to get by Emmett and settled for pull-up jumpers that rarely found the mark.

After the workout, one of the scouts in the gym remarked that the workout was one of the worst they'd seen in awhile. "I'm not sure what was going on," the scout told Insider. "Did he have a late night partying and just wasn't ready to play? Or is this how the kid is in these situations? Maybe he just doesn't practice or play hard. I was totally unimpressed. Totally."

That doesn't bode well for Smith. Both the Blazers (No. 13) and Jazz (No. 14 and 16) were seriously considering Smith with their picks. While one workout won't ruin him, it's tough to imagine either team would feel good about taking him after what they saw on Friday.

# Another international sleeper: On Friday morning I went to another gym in L.A. to check out Venezuala's Miguel Marriaga, a 6-foot-10, 19-year-old forward who applied for the draft. Marriaga made a name for himself at the Under-20 tournament in Greece last summer, when he averaged 16.5 ppg, 11 rpg and 3.4 bpg. He also impressed several scouts at the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Puerto Rico last summer, when he dropped 14 points and seven rebounds in 16 minutes against Argentina.


Miguel Marriaga is skilled for a big man, but he needs more time in the weight room.
Marriaga has been in Los Angeles since January working on his game with Lamar Odom's former coach, Jerry DeGregorio, and is in the draft looking for a team to guarantee him a first-round spot. Will he get it?

Marriaga is a big-time athlete who likes to play in the paint with his back to the basket. He's got a great vertical jump, is a top-tier shot blocker and has really good footwork (like many South American players, soccer helps with that). He's got a 7-foot-3 inch wingspan and is very quick.

He has spent all of his time in international competition playing the four and looked most comfortable on the block. He had several quick spins moves in the paint that were impressive and attacked the rim with both hands every chance he got.

The questions about Marriaga boil down to two things. While he has a power forward game, he still has the body of a three. If he's going to play four in the league he's going to have to put on a lot of muscle and looking at him, it might take a while.

If he's forced to play the three, his perimeter game and ball-handling must improve. He actually showed a pretty nice touch from 18 feet out and did a great job of using the glass from 10 feet in. His ball-handling wasn't bad for a 6-10 guy, but it's still not up to NBA standards for the position.

Marriaga told Insider he's been mainly working on his perimeter skills since arriving in the U.S., so obviously his agent and coach anticipated the criticism. From the scouting reports I got from several NBA teams that had seen him before January, he's improved a lot in both areas. Still, given his talent at shot blocking and rebounding, it seems like the time may have been better spent getting him into the weight room and bulking him up a bit.

Where does he go in the draft? Based on athleticism and potential, he could be a late-first-rounder -- a Samuel Dalembert type who could improve with a few years of coaching and weight training. More likely, however, he's a second-round pick. The first round is way too crowded, and not enough teams have a handle on him to make that call. If projections continue to peg him for the second round, there's a chance he'll pull out of the draft, play in Europe for a year, and try again next spring.

# American sleeper: Ha Seung Jin and J.R. Smith were the big SFX attractions in Santa Monica over the weekend, but another college player caught just about everyone's eye. Utah's Nick Jacobsen did a phenomenal job shooting the ball over the course of the two days I was in the gym. His effortless 3-point shot put Smith's to shame. It shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. Jacobsen shot a sizzling 44 percent from behind the arc for Utah last season. He's pretty one dimensional, but he easily could play the same type of role Steve Kerr and Fred Hoiberg have in the league. That killer shot combined with decent athleticism, size and defense should land him somewhere in the second round.