Insider Breakdown: Wolves vs Lakers



By Brian James
Special to ESPN Insider


Timberwolves' plus-minus breakdown | Lakers' plus-minus breakdown

Brian James, a former assistant coach with the Pistons, Raptors and Wizards, spent the 2003-'04 season scouting for the SuperSonics. Insider tapped his NBA expertise to break down each playoff series.

Inside the NBA Playoffs
vs.
CONFERENCE FINALS
East
# Pacers (1) vs. Pistons (3)

West
# Wolves (1) vs. Lakers (2)

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When the Los Angeles Lakers lost the first two games of their playoff series against San Antonio, coach Phil Jackson's motivational speech got the team re-focused and was the turning point in the series. Jackson went down the entire roster and reminded each player, emphatically, that this might be the swan song for the majority of the team, including the coaching staff.

L.A. came out possessed from that point on and won four straight games.

Minnesota also has been on an emotional, physical and mental whirlwind in the playoffs. Wednesday night's Game 7 against the Sacramento Kings was in doubt until the final horn. Does anyone now question which player is the MVP of the NBA? Kevin Garnett's passion, emotion and leadership carried the Timberwolves, and he was simply unstoppable in the fourth quarter.

The 48-hour turnaround will test Minnesota's resolve as they open against the Lakers, because it will limit how much rest the starters will get before what will be a very physical series. How can Sam Cassell's back and hip get better in such a short time? Emotionally, how much do they have left in the tank?

When we break down the Western Conference Finals, we need to look at some of the things the playoff crucible has revealed about these teams.

Strengths and weaknesses

Minnesota Timberwolves

Kevin Garnett
Forward
Minnesota Timberwolves
Profile


2004 PLAYOFF STATISTICS
MIN PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
43.2 24.7 15.2 5.4 .446 .774
Strengths: There's a reason Sacramento shot so poorly against the Timberwolves. Remember, Minnesota had the fourth-best defense in the NBA during the regular season. Garnett dominated the inside with his blocked or altered shots and was a big reason the Kings missed some crucial layups in Game 7. Trenton Hassell did an incredible job taking away Peja Stojakovic's open looks. For perspective, Mike Bibby and Stojakovic made one field goal inside the 3-point line in Game 7.

The Big Three of Garnett, Cassell and Latrell Sprewell will continue to will this team to play to its potential. Any time these three can combine for more than 60 points in a game, Minnesota is capable of winning (they had 69 of Minnesota's 83 in Game 7). Hassell and Fred Hoiberg have been superb in the playoffs. Both have knocked down open looks, and their defense, toughness and rebounding has been excellent.

Even though Minnesota's true centers have been almost non-existent, now's the time for Michael Olowokandi and Oliver Miller to help Ervin Johnson defend Shaquille O'Neal.

Be ready to watch a free-throw contest, as Minnesota will have 18 fouls to give at the center position. Opening at home helps, too, as playing three home games in five days can help them get into something of a regular season routine.


Sam Cassell
Point Guard
Minnesota Timberwolves
Profile


2004 PLAYOFF STATISTICS
MIN PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
36.1 19.0 3.2 5.0 .471 .833
Weaknesses: What happened to Olowokandi? Instead of being the finisher at center, he isn't even taking off his his warm-ups. Coach Flip Saunders has gone with Mark Madsen and Gary Trent in the back-up roles to bring energy and toughness. I'm sure Olowokandi's teammates are wondering why he can't bring those qualities. This combination has to score just enough to keep Shaq honest on defense, or the Lakers will be playing five-on-four.

The condition of Cassell's back is a major concern. He was laboring after the first quarter of Game 7 and wasn't able to do things he normally does. His turnovers came because he was trying to do too much and wasn't as mobile as usual. Darrick Martin did not play in Game 7, as Saunders bought time for Sam with a trio of Wally Szczerbiak, Sprewell and Hoiberg in the backcourt early in the game, and even Garnett for a few possessions in the fourth quarter. Flip wanted his best players on the floor, and he may have to use this rotation again.

The Timberwolves play great when they can get to the free-throw line repeatedly, and the way to get to the line is to attack the basket. This has to be a concern, since they are known primarily as a jump-shooting team, and now they'll have Shaq camped out in the middle waiting for people to drive the ball to him. Sprewell is great in open court in transition. Can they get enough opportunities for him to run with a hobbled Cassell pushing the ball?

Los Angeles Lakers

Shaquille O'Neal
Center
Los Angeles Lakers
Profile


2004 PLAYOFF STATISTICS
MIN PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
41.7 19.6 13.0 2.7 .583 .377
Strengths: O'Neal can concentrate on zoning up the middle defensively, because Karl Malone will guard Garnett one-on-one. The inside presence may take away many of the layups Minnesota needs to balance its attack.

Malone did a great job against San Antonio with physical defense on Tim Duncan. The Lakers' defense swarmed to double Duncan in the post, and it definitely affected his ability to go quickly to the basket. Look for Malone to attempt to do the same with Garnett.

Five days rest will do the Lakers wonders. Look for the veterans to come out with the fresher bodies, especially early in the series when they can steal home court advantage.

Weaknesses: The Lakers' major concern continues to be free-throw shooting, mainly O'Neal. He has made only 40 of 106 foul attempts in the first two rounds. Minnesota will not let him lay or dunk the ball in the basket, especially in the fourth quarter. In close games, Shaq will have to make his share of FTs to win.

Defensively, the team's lack of lateral movement was exposed in the first two games of the Spurs' series. Not only did San Antonio's Tony Parker get into the lane at will, but the Lakers could not get the ball stopped in wing or high screen-roll. The Wolves also will get Shaq involved defensively by having his man set the final screen or pin-down, opening it up for shooters.

In Games 1 and 2 against the Spurs, Laker turnovers and lack of patience on offense, with only one or two passes, resulted in quick shots and poor transition defense. The Lakers are too slow retreating when this happens. More important, will come to play each and every game? Or will they bicker and take a game or two off? If they do, this series could be tight.

Ch-ch-ch-changes

Minnesota did a few things differently as the Sacramento series progressed. Flip's rotation got shorter, for one, with only eight players getting double-figure minutes. Look for him to go back to Martin and the trio of centers to try to keep his starters fresher for the fourth quarter.

The Wolves locked in defensively against the Kings and did not show much zone. If they can keep a body on O'Neal in the middle, they may try to play more zone defense to make L.A. shoot from over the top. Minnesota also dropped the weak-side big man into the lane to take away any back-door cuts by the Kings. This, as much as anything, took away Sacramento's scoring opportunities.

Sprewell switched over to guard Bibby to put a taller and quicker player on the point, and to keep Bibby from exploiting the hobbled Cassell. At least to start, Minnesota likely will go back to a more conventional alignment.


Kobe Bryant
Shooting Guard
Los Angeles Lakers
Profile


2004 PLAYOFF STATISTICS
MIN PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
44.3 25.5 6.0 6.0 .429 .824
L.A. went away from the triangle in much of the Spurs' series to take advantage of the screen-roll with Kobe Bryant and Malone. Look for this to continue, as it allows the Lakers to work to their strengths -- getting Kobe into the lane, Malone an open jump shot or O'Neal inside on the flash to the middle, punching into the lane. Payton will get his share of this as well, since he's much more involved with this type of offense.

The Lakers defended Parker much differently after Game 2, with L.A. bringing a more physical defensive scheme. Look for this to continue if Cassell starts hurting the Lakers by isolating on the left side in transition and getting into the lane with screen-roll action.

After starting in the regular season when healthy, Rick Fox now gets very few minutes. Look for Devean George to continue to get the bulk of the minutes.

Weaknesses exposed

Minnesota has proven it's not a drop-the-ball-into-the-post type team. The Wolves must get Garnett on the move, putting him all over the floor to start different sets, to keep the Lakers' defense honest. He will step out to set screens on the ball and pick-and-pop or roll, or get screens set for him on the weak side as he comes across the middle to receive the ball.

But Garnett's movement raises the question of who else can post up? Olowokandi has had success in the past against O'Neal, so possibly he will get his chance again. If the Wolves shoot more FTs than the Lakers by being the aggressor, they will have a chance.

L.A. has done a better job of hiding its lack of lateral mobility and quickness in getting back in transition. In their four victories over the Spurs, the Lakers' turnovers went down and their defense became better, as did the offensive execution. The focus is back, but it will be interesting to see if they continue this mind set.

O'Neal can get out to cover the screen-roll, if needed, but look for the Lakers to defend this in a variety of ways. They may push the screen-roll toward the baseline to keep O'Neal zoning up inside. If Cassell starts to make shots, L.A. might trap the screen and rotate the small forward to the shooter, again to keep O'Neal inside.

Head-to-head matchups


Gary Payton
Point Guard
Los Angeles Lakers
Profile


2004 PLAYOFF STATISTICS
MIN PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
35.8 8.7 3.5 5.4 .352 .727
Point guard: Look for Payton and Derek Fisher to extend the pressure on Cassell as much as possible to try to wear him down. If Payton can live up to his nickname, The Glove, he will be a major key in stopping Minnesota. Rest is what Cassell needs, and he will get none now.

Cassell will have a tougher time posting up Payton in transition than he did with Bibby. He can't get himself and his team in trouble by over-dribbling. Payton must not relax on defense, because Cassell chases the ball to get it back after he passes, and gets a lot of shots this way. If Martin subs for Sam, the Lakers will make him prove he can make shots.

At the other end, Payton loves to run more traditional sets than the triangle offense. This works more to his strengths, as he gets himself shots in the post-ups and slashes. Payton is a scorer, not a pure shooter, as you must be to make the triangle work. Fisher will play a great number of minutes in reserve, and he and Payton also will play together in Jackson's rotation.
Edge: Cassell on offense, Payton/Fisher on defense.

Off guard: Kobe was just incredible against the Spurs. With fresher legs, he will be even livelier. The difference between Stojakovic and Bryant as a defensive matchup for Hassell is that Kobe is just as effective off the dribble as he is shooting from the perimeter or posting up. So Hassell has his workload tripled in checking Bryant. He won't be able to body up on him as much, either, because Kobe is quicker and stronger. Hoiberg, Szczerbiak and Sprewell will get their chances to guard Bryant, as well, to give him different looks.

Defensively, Bryant will roam and gamble some, and Hassell will have to make shots to keep him honest. Kareem Rush will back up Kobe and will have to continue to knock down shots on the pass out of double teams to give O'Neal an option.
Edge: On both offense and defense, this goes to Bryant.


Latrell Sprewell
Guard-Forward
Minnesota Timberwolves
Profile


2004 PLAYOFF STATISTICS
MIN PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
42.5 19.3 6.6 3.5 .428 .717
Small forward: Sprewell was tremendous in the Kings' series. His toughness and leadership helped when the Timberwolves needed it most. If he gets going in the open court, it seems to help his jump shooting, as well. He's at his best when attacking the basket. He didn't shoot exceptionally well in Game 7 (6 for 16), but he had great games in the series. He needs to quit putting the ball in passing lanes, and keep his turnovers to a minimum.

Hoiberg shot 50 percent from the 3-point line against Sacramento and rebounded very well. I can't remember when Fred has been this productive. Szczberiak had a great second half in Game 6 and second quarter in Game 7, and he may increase his production against the Lakers.

George made big shots in the Lakers' victories and will have to be active to keep Sprewell from roaming and helping. Knocking down shots will do this. Defensively, George needs to stay in front of Sprewell and make him hit shots from the perimeter. Bryant will slide over to 3 when the Lakers go to a smaller lineup. Fox and Bryon Russell have not played much.
Edge: Sprewell, both offensively and defensively.


Karl Malone
Power Forward
Los Angeles Lakers
Profile


2004 PLAYOFF STATISTICS
MIN PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
39.9 13.6 9.1 3.2 .472 .600
Power forward: This is the marquee matchup. Garnett's performance in Game 7 against the Kings may have been his best as a pro (32 points, 21 rebounds, five blocks). Now no one can say that Garnett is not the ultimate winner and clutch player. Still, he must stay away from the stationary post-up game, and needs to embrace contact to get himself to the free throw line.

Like Bryant, there is nothing Garnett can't do. He will play around 44 minutes, but look for Madsen and Trent to spell him. Those two must slow down to catch passes, then concentrate on finishing layups.

Look for Malone to play as physical as he did against Duncan and make Garnett take as many jump shots as possible. At the other end, he will try to draw Garnett out of the middle with his jumper. Stanislav Medvedenko will play just as physically.
Edge: Even though Malone may have been the difference in the Spurs series, how can you go against Garnett on either end?

Center: This will be the biggest mismatch in the series. The Timberwolves must find ways to bother O'Neal on defense with the combination of Johnson, Olowokandi, Miller or Garnett. They have to use their fouls to make O'Neal prove he can make enough free throws to win games.

No matter what this combination does offensively, it's doubtful O'Neal can be drawn away from the basket. Minnesota could go small, with Garnett at center, forcing O'Neal to engage defensively. It's an interesting adjustment for Flip to consider, if he thinks his team can rebound well enough to try it. Malone has been sliding over to back up O'Neal in recent games.

Edge: Clearly O'Neal and the Lakers.

Prediction: Look for the Lakers to win in no more than six games. Minnesota's health is a concern with Cassell's back, and now the Lakers are as focused as ever.