Just looking for a definitive answer on this and came across this recent ESPN article by Ian Begley:
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/knicks/post/_/id/56193/does-new-cap-make-it-easier-for-melo-to-go?ex_cid=espnapi_public
Key things to take away from this article:
(1) Yes, we can do a sign & trade.
(2) In fact, it will be easier for us when they raise the cap by $5mm -- the team receiving the player [Melo] must not be over the salary "apron" which will now be increased from $76mm to $81mm. Per Begley:
"...it makes it easier for New York to execute a sign-and-trade involving Anthony. In order to complete a sign-and-trade, teams that receive Anthony in a sign-and-trade need to be under the salary "apron" following the trade. If the new projections hold, it means the apron will increase to $81 million. So the extra $5 million of space makes the sign-and-trade easier to execute."
"That means teams such as the Houston Rockets and Chicago Bulls have an easier chance to acquire Anthony via a sign-and-trade."
(3) Other teams can also offer Melo $5mm more than the old rate, w/o a S&T -- making it look a little more appealing for FAs to just up & leave their current team for another team--more lucrative then when Dwight Howard left the Lakers to sign with the Rockets for example. HOWEVER, NY can still offer the most by a wide margin, significantly more than other teams. Still puts us in the driver's seat if max money or close to it turns out to be a top concern for Melo (even if Melo does leave, I highly doubt the man would want to leave us high and dry, holding our wanks...If he comes to the conclusion that his future lies elsewhere, I think he'd sleep a little better knowing NY got compensated for his leaving -- I'd like to see him openly work with the Knicks and his next team in getting what everyone wants. He will have a lot of say in the matter. His agent will have to convey the following: he wants more money and doesn't want the Knicks to get burned...He would satisfy these two important conditions if he left via S&T over just signing somewhere else).
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The whole thing will work so much smoother if they can broker a S&T -- you would think teams like Chicago and Houston would have a much tougher time first clearing all the cap room somehow and then signing Melo -- a S&T allows the team that wants Melo to take care of everything in one neat package. A lot less headache...Thinking about it -- how would these teams clear out that much cap room w/o taking back salary in return (Chicago and Houston are both over the cap next year)? I suppose it could be done -- you'd need to find a few teams under the cap that are willing to take on a few of their higher-salary players...Otherwise, they'd have no chance -- even if they brought in a bunch of expiring contracts, they'd still have to wait a year for them to expire and they would've missed out. Melo's opting out and will be a FA this summer. 100% guaranteed. The man's not playing one more year on the current contract. Way too much of a gamble on his part. Ridiculous to even think that he'd entertain doing that...In a S&T, you clear out the salary as you're importing Melo -- one replaces the other simultaneously. S&T is still the option that's in everyone's best interest I feel..
Again, IF he's leaving. I said right from the get-go, I could go either way on this. 50/50 -- part of me thinks he's a star that's already here, still very productive and pretty much in his prime. Then part of me feels like he may be on the downside physically (2 bum shoulders generates a ton of pause) and max money, even slightly less, might turn out to be a poor investment in the long run. Getting compensated in a S&T and starting over might be our best move here, all considered...Just gotta be smart with what we take back -- ABSOLUTELY NO BAD CONTRACTS for marginal players. We need expiring contracts, picks and/or low salary/high upside players in return. If it turns out we have to take on salary for players that don't cut it, I'd rather let him walk. Manage the cap properly -- I'd only contemplate taking on salary if the player is young with significant upside and has shown at some point that they can play big at the NBA level. Even then, we need to proceed with great caution and carefully consider whether it'll be in our best interest or not.