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Nalod
Posts: 71350 Alba Posts: 155 Joined: 12/24/2003 Member: #508 USA |
4/9/2014 9:31 AM
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/knicks/post/_/id/55780/ opening-tip-schoene-was-spot-onBack in October, ESPN.com’s SCHOENE system predicted that the Knicks would go 37-45 this season. Many fans questioned the project. So did this writer. But it turns out the 37-win projection was accurate, probably even a little optimistic. The Knicks currently sit at 33-37 with four games to play. They are in ninth place in the East, 1 1/2 games behind the Hawks. New York, obviously, needs to finish 4-0 to get to SCHOENE’s 37-win projection. If they win their final four games, they’d need the Hawks to finish 2-3 in order to get in the postseason. Whether or not they make the playoffs, it seems like the SCHOENE projections seems to have been spot on. Below, we take a look at some the specifics behind the SCHOENE prediction to see how the system saw this coming. SCHOENE, developed by ESPN.com’s Kevin Pelton, predicted that the Knicks’ offensive rating would plummet from 3rd to 20th this season. The Knicks’ offense struggled at times with Andrea Bargnani on the floor earlier in the year. But since Bargnani went down in late January, the team has coalesced on offense. The move to include Amar'e Stoudemire and J.R. Smith in the starting lineup also helped. Entering play Tuesday, the Knicks ranked 11th in offensive efficiency. SCHOENE predicted that the Knicks would struggle on defense, finishing 20th in defensive efficiency. New York did its part to fulfill that projection. Entering play Tuesday, Mike Woodson's club ranked 24th in defensive efficiency. That’s been one of the driving forces behind their struggles. They've had a tough time defending the perimeter for much of the season. Point guards and shooting guards are outscoring their Knick counterparts on a per-game basis. Bargnani, of course, didn’t help things on defense. The rest of the Knicks' interior defenders were inconsistent. So give SCHOENE a ton of credit here for forecasting this. That brings up our question for the day: Did you think SCHOENE was right in the preseason when it predicted 37 wins for the Knicks? Up now: One metric ranks Isiah Thomas as the top drafting GM in the NBA. A look at the NBA, John Calipari and the Knicks. What’s next: The Knicks will practice on Wednesday to prepare for Friday’s road game against the Raptors. You can follow Ian Begley on Twitter.
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smackeddog
Posts: 38391 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 3/30/2005 Member: #883 |
4/9/2014 10:56 AM LAST EDITED: 4/9/2014 10:58 AM
Ah here's some:
East 1. Miami Heat
1. San Antonio Spurs Can't find the rest. I've put stars next to the predictions that we can't really measure due to significant injuries or trades (e.g. Toronto trading Rudy Gay). Looks like it was way off with the Pistons (even i could have told you that, and did!). In the West it was way off on the T-Wolves. Wrong on Warriors, wrong on Blazers. Also didn't predict the Suns success. Oh and Sorry, but no predictor gets points for 'predicting' Heat, Pacers, Spurs, OKC, Pacers, Rockets and Clips would be top teams! Methinks it just fluked its prediction with us. |
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Nalod
Posts: 71350 Alba Posts: 155 Joined: 12/24/2003 Member: #508 USA |
4/9/2014 11:06 AM
It figured Rose to return to Bulls, Hawks with Horford, Rapts with Gay.
NKnuggs seem to be joined at the hip since the trade! I had figured the Wiz improving as with the 'Cats but also thought Cleveleand would be a 8th seed contender. Knicks falling and Nyets awful start put wins on other teams. Toronto has been a huge suprise with Dwayne Casey consideration for COY. My Knick total was 47-49 but that was predicated on Amare not contributing for the first half of the season. Naturally Bargs was to fill in the gap. I was like a lot of fans who did not think much of the Schoene, but Sir Charles had said we'd not sniff the playoffs and he got my attention. |
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smackeddog
Posts: 38391 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 3/30/2005 Member: #883 |
4/9/2014 11:10 AM
Nalod wrote:It figured Rose to return to Bulls, Hawks with Horford, Rapts with Gay. You should be the new Schoene! |
You were right about the Wizards, Cats, and the Cavs were vying for the 8th spot until they lost that game against the hawks last week.|
Nalod
Posts: 71350 Alba Posts: 155 Joined: 12/24/2003 Member: #508 USA |
4/9/2014 11:15 AM
smackeddog wrote:Nalod wrote:It figured Rose to return to Bulls, Hawks with Horford, Rapts with Gay. Its in the seasons predictions. The reason Cavs stuck was the awful records of the East. Not becuase they were very good. Wiz were easier to see as they moved away from pure youth. Cats was due to the Jefferson signing and him being healthy. This is not "I Told ya so", but I wrote it in the predictions. Hawks without Horford are a big suprise. I basically had said that every year there are suprises and many knick fans don't consider that. Toronto? Really? |
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mreinman
Posts: 37827 Alba Posts: 1 Joined: 7/14/2010 Member: #3189 |
4/9/2014 11:21 AM
Nalod wrote:smackeddog wrote:Nalod wrote:It figured Rose to return to Bulls, Hawks with Horford, Rapts with Gay. Phoenix? so here is what phil is thinking ....
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NYKBocker
Posts: 38419 Alba Posts: 474 Joined: 1/14/2003 Member: #377 USA |
4/9/2014 11:35 AM
What? No pics?
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Nalod
Posts: 71350 Alba Posts: 155 Joined: 12/24/2003 Member: #508 USA |
4/9/2014 11:51 AM
mreinman wrote:Nalod wrote:smackeddog wrote:Nalod wrote:It figured Rose to return to Bulls, Hawks with Horford, Rapts with Gay. Talking East coast. PHX was about the biggest surprise. Wolves just can't figure things out and maybe this season is no Adelman a bit? He has had a free pass due to injuries and taking time away from the team. This year he pretty much had a full roster. They are still at .500! I thought Golden State would be a bit better. POrtland has been a big surprise in the first half! |
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Dagger
Posts: 22065 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 4/12/2012 Member: #4184 |
4/9/2014 12:00 PM LAST EDITED: 4/9/2014 12:04 PM
smackeddog wrote:Ah here's some: Honestly those predictions are more inaccurate than most humans would be. And for those crying "injuries"! Injuries happen every year and even out between teams when looking at 30 teams. |
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Nalod
Posts: 71350 Alba Posts: 155 Joined: 12/24/2003 Member: #508 USA |
4/9/2014 1:12 PM
Dagger wrote:smackeddog wrote:Ah here's some: When I saw this preseason I thought the notion of ATL finishing ahead of NYK was laughable. That Toronto would get a 8th seed was also pretty humorous. With Ujuri in place, one could imagine a house cleaning. On paper Minny did look good, and Memphis has been solid. In the east, Detroit had some nice youth and adding Smith seemed plausible. OKC had Westbrook coming off an injurie and unknown when he'd return.. |
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Bonn1997
Posts: 58654 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 2/2/2004 Member: #581 USA |
4/9/2014 4:57 PM
With Minny, it's hard to know what to think. Based on their point differential, which usually predicts future performance better than W-L record, they played pretty well. Most likely they just had a lot of random bad luck close losses, which has to happen to one or two teams a season.
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mreinman
Posts: 37827 Alba Posts: 1 Joined: 7/14/2010 Member: #3189 |
4/9/2014 5:08 PM
Bonn1997 wrote:With Minny, it's hard to know what to think. Based on their point differential, which usually predicts future performance better than W-L record, they played pretty well. Most likely they just had a lot of random bad luck close losses, which has to happen to one or two teams a season. They have been a notoriously bad shooting team the last few years. I remember reading an article blaming their losing on them being a bad 3 point shooting team. so here is what phil is thinking ....
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