yellowboy90 wrote:Who is another good player they drafted? Even Faried is a system player that may be best suited as a backup.

I would take Faried over even early shump in a heartbeat.

They are not done yet. They did screw up like we did and got unlucky with injuries.

Jury is still out.

yellowboy90 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Who is another good player they drafted? Even Faried is a system player that may be best suited as a backup.

I would take Faried over even early shump in a heartbeat.

They are not done yet. They did screw up like we did and got unlucky with injuries.

Jury is still out.

It's not about Shump vs Faried? Faried has been the better player but he too will probably be moved for a 2nd rounder soon, maybe very late 1st.

Faried? No way. Can we give them a second rounder for him?

mreinman wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Who is another good player they drafted? Even Faried is a system player that may be best suited as a backup.

I would take Faried over even early shump in a heartbeat.

They are not done yet. They did screw up like we did and got unlucky with injuries.

Jury is still out.

It's not about Shump vs Faried? Faried has been the better player but he too will probably be moved for a 2nd rounder soon, maybe very late 1st.

Faried? No way. Can we give them a second rounder for him?

Nope, but someone else will give it to them. Faried will likely get lost next year and be traded or even before the season. Denver will likely go on a Tank plan to set them up for a big fish and probably use Lawson to do that but they might have problems moving him given his size and lack of defensive skills.

mreinman wrote:
Uh ... the amnesty move and the Tyson signing was good move? If that is what you call luck ...

mreinman wrote:

masud wrote:

mreinman wrote:
Uh ... the amnesty move and the Tyson signing was good move? If that is what you call luck ...

It was a good move in the sense that we probably wouldn't have made the playoffs in 12 without Tyson. Which would have made the trade look even worse.

Thats why? It was painfully horrible in every way.

mreinman wrote:

dk7th wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

dk7th wrote:looks to me like both those clubs have succeeded at getting a great value or at least a fair value for the money they pay.

time for the knicks to do the same. start with how effective each player is at defending the position and work from there. look at drpm : http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM

carmelo anthony for instance is at a -.60 for his position, ranked 255th in the league.
jr smith is ranked behind steve nash at -.96 and 287th !
felton is 316th and -1.26.
bargnani is 331st and -1.40
stoudemire is 394th and -2.59

these players are the ones that you have to wonder what worth they have to a winning cause as the knicks look to rebuild or overhaul the roster. all are overpaid.

So now we are buying into advanced stats (as long as as the slipper doesn't fit)?

Well he does write a lot about usage rate, assists, and I think true shooting percentage.

Yes. He does talk about stats but never ones that favor Melo (FOR SOME REASON).

But he wants Melo at 12-13 per. I hear that though I don't think there is a chance that this is happening though I would love it.

bonn1997 has valued anthony at exactly the same range as myself.

what advanced statistics actually shed a positive light on carmelo anthony? PER? that has been debunked because it favors volume i believe.

what other advanced stats are you looking at? i will happily analyze them and give you my assessment of their validity.

Your assessment is not necessary since the sabermetrics community is quite capable (certainly more than we are). And, nobody does/can really argue that Melo has not been efficient this year. Looking and judging by/after bad games is just silly and ill informed.

PER? No (rewards volume shooters - certainly makes Melo looks like a super maxi)

Win Shares. Alternate Win Scores. Wins Produced. WS48 etc ...

Nobody respects stats like Adjusted or Real Plus Minus.

The advanced stats community is not pro Melo (for his career) at all however, he is having a very efficient year and has been a lot better as a knick then a nugget.

I would max Melo closer to 18 but that is also because if he stays then Phil has a plan for him. With minor tweaks, he could go from efficient to super efficient.

he needs to be a much better defender if he is to make the kind of money you are saying he should get. that is never going to happen. you can't afford to pay a one-way player that kind of money.

let's assume the max he could get is 24 million. that means you believe he excels on both ends of the court which is simply not the case. and at thirty years of age guess what happens to foot speed and lateral quickness? his defense is only going to get worse from here on out.

no-- as a playoff performer he will always be a mediocre at best defender and more likely a liability whoever he plays for-- so now we cut his max money in half, down to 12 million per year.

now his slightly above average efficiency at 56% is also a liability come playoff time because everyone's efficiency tends to be driven down at least a percentage point or three the deeper you go into the playoffs. hence if he isn't at 58% or above during the regular season he becomes a liability come playoff time-- as he always has been historically.

hence the most he should be earning is 13-14 million per year.

are we to pay him for regular season success merely or should we value him for how he performs in the playoffs?

to me it's all about the second round and beyond.

dk7th wrote:

mreinman wrote:

dk7th wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

dk7th wrote:looks to me like both those clubs have succeeded at getting a great value or at least a fair value for the money they pay.

time for the knicks to do the same. start with how effective each player is at defending the position and work from there. look at drpm : http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM

carmelo anthony for instance is at a -.60 for his position, ranked 255th in the league.
jr smith is ranked behind steve nash at -.96 and 287th !
felton is 316th and -1.26.
bargnani is 331st and -1.40
stoudemire is 394th and -2.59

these players are the ones that you have to wonder what worth they have to a winning cause as the knicks look to rebuild or overhaul the roster. all are overpaid.

So now we are buying into advanced stats (as long as as the slipper doesn't fit)?

Well he does write a lot about usage rate, assists, and I think true shooting percentage.

Yes. He does talk about stats but never ones that favor Melo (FOR SOME REASON).

But he wants Melo at 12-13 per. I hear that though I don't think there is a chance that this is happening though I would love it.

bonn1997 has valued anthony at exactly the same range as myself.

what advanced statistics actually shed a positive light on carmelo anthony? PER? that has been debunked because it favors volume i believe.

what other advanced stats are you looking at? i will happily analyze them and give you my assessment of their validity.

Your assessment is not necessary since the sabermetrics community is quite capable (certainly more than we are). And, nobody does/can really argue that Melo has not been efficient this year. Looking and judging by/after bad games is just silly and ill informed.

PER? No (rewards volume shooters - certainly makes Melo looks like a super maxi)

Win Shares. Alternate Win Scores. Wins Produced. WS48 etc ...

Nobody respects stats like Adjusted or Real Plus Minus.

The advanced stats community is not pro Melo (for his career) at all however, he is having a very efficient year and has been a lot better as a knick then a nugget.

I would max Melo closer to 18 but that is also because if he stays then Phil has a plan for him. With minor tweaks, he could go from efficient to super efficient.

he needs to be a much better defender if he is to make the kind of money you are saying he should get. that is never going to happen. you can't afford to pay a one-way player that kind of money.

let's assume the max he could get is 24 million. that means you believe he excels on both ends of the court which is simply not the case. and at thirty years of age guess what happens to foot speed and lateral quickness? his defense is only going to get worse from here on out.

no-- as a playoff performer he will always be a mediocre at best defender and more likely a liability whoever he plays for-- so now we cut his max money in half, down to 12 million per year.

now his slightly above average efficiency at 56% is also a liability come playoff time because everyone's efficiency tends to be driven down at least a percentage point or three the deeper you go into the playoffs. hence if he isn't at 58% or above during the regular season he becomes a liability come playoff time-- as he always has been historically.

hence the most he should be earning is 13-14 million per year.

are we to pay him for regular season success merely or should we value him for how he performs in the playoffs?

to me it's all about the second round and beyond.

I don't think he is a great defender but I think he is underrated (granted - maybe on in the minority on this). That is the main difference between he and kobe is defense (and its a huge difference and why Phil tolerated Kobe).

I am not a fan at all of his shot selection in the playoffs but it is no coincidence that his three most efficient playoff years were with Chauncy Billups. He (CB) obviously did something to help his game. Other than that, he never played with a leader/pg who was any good. He needs a player like that so that he does not take charge and take bad shots. Look how great he/they played when Kidd was hitting and leading. He should not be the one who initiates the offense. He is not good at it.

I think 18 is the right price / discount if Phil feels that he can be successful in his system. Also, I am curious to see what Morey and Chi/Thibs thinks he is worth.

If Phil can't tweak his game, I don't want him (unless its at 12-13).

raven wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

mreinman wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:Who is another good player they drafted? Even Faried is a system player that may be best suited as a backup.

I would take Faried over even early shump in a heartbeat.

They are not done yet. They did screw up like we did and got unlucky with injuries.

Jury is still out.

It's not about Shump vs Faried? Faried has been the better player but he too will probably be moved for a 2nd rounder soon, maybe very late 1st.

Faried? No way. Can we give them a second rounder for him?

Nope, but someone else will give it to them. Faried will likely get lost next year and be traded or even before the season. Denver will likely go on a Tank plan to set them up for a big fish and probably use Lawson to do that but they might have problems moving him given his size and lack of defensive skills.

It seems to me your knowledge of Faried is kind of outdated. He had an excellent second part of season, with much improved offense and a sligthly improved D.
I watched it, and read about it: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/kenneth-faried-manimal-evolution-denver-nuggets/

No way in hell he's traded for a late 1st, even less for a 2nd.

His numbers are awesome - 18/11 and extremely efficient. He would do even better if he shot better than 65% FT's.

I would take him in a nano sec.