Signs of a Real Chris Paul Possibility
May 20th, 2013 8:33 am

Tommy Dee, theKnicksBlog.com

Moke did a great, GREAT job of laying out in great detail how Chris Paul to the Knicks can possibly go down. I get the question a lot of “But how??”… Do yourself a favor and click on the link above.
Many people around the league, including those with knowledge have been quiet about the situation, a far cry from the Melo to NY and Dwight Howard situations. But to me there are some real glaring signs that make one wonder just how possibly the chances are that Paul tries to make a power move and unite with Carmelo in The Big Apple.

1. The Toast- We all know things can change, but Paul was very open in a very open forum in talking about joining forces and matching Miami back in the summer of 2010. Paul is a veteran who is an incredible competitor and it’s not far fetched to think that he believes his only chance to win a title is to play with an established superstar. The idea that he’s reportedly complained about Blake Griffin’s late game prowess is certainly something of major note. The fact that he’s been extremely non-committal leads one to believe that staying in LA with the Clippers isn’t exactly Paul’s idea of Shangri-La. Again, from what other superstars have done, including his best friend Anthony, new CBA or not, is still a definite sign in my mind.

2. The Agency- Both Melo and Paul are represented by CAA who, as we all know, has solid roots at MSG.

3. Ignoring Phil Jackson- One of the most puzzling decisions for me, considering Jackson had serious interest in the position, was the decision to not entertain hiring the legendary head coach. Granted, he wanted some organizational control, but his hiring to me was absolutely nothing short of a no-brainer with Carmelo on the roster. He’s perfectly suited for the triangle. You know who isn’t? Paul.

The triangle has never been conducive for a point guard so it makes sense to completely ignore Jackson if they have plans to add a player who simply could not thrive in a system that’s been the backbone of double-digit titles. The fact that they didn’t even think about talking to Phil is a major sign for me.

4. The Knicks tried to trade for Paul December 2011- A little known footnote that we reported at the time , but one that I swear is accurate was that the Knicks took a shot in the dark (per source) and offered Amar’e Stoudemire for Paul on the same day they acquired Tyson Chandler. It was viewed as a desperation move to appease Mike D’Antoni as he headed into his last season as coach of the Kincks.

5. Letting Jeremy Lin and Landry Fields walk- We can go back in great detail on the Lin situation but here’s the rub for me. James Dolan was the ultimate villain in that whole situation for not agreeing to sign Lin after he young guard went back and loaded up his contract thanks to Daryl Morey. Melo also drew ire (mostly from season ticket holders who cashed in on Linsanity) because he couldn’t handle the idea of Lin “stealing his spotlight” as if he were prom queen jealous of a new transfer student. But the Knicks were applauded for “smart business” just days prior to letting Lin walk by letting him establish his market value. Is it possible they didn’t want to be in the situation where they’d have to trade Lin right now? If Paul were a possibility they’d have to shop Lin and get very little value in return because they’d have to bring back cap clogging salary or two making signing Paul a relative impossibility. Letting Lin walk for nothing made little sense at the time and was chalked up to more Dopey Dolan, but isn’t it a possible sign that they want Paul to run the point?

As far as Fields, it’s another example of how they could have something in return but allowed a player who took the league by storm to walk away for nothing. Granted, no one really cared but it was cause for some head scratching. I think the Knicks should have dealt Fields for picks at the 2012 deadline but that’s neither here nor there.

6. Isiah Thomas- Yes, we hate to say it, but there is this whole thing. A small sign, but a sign nonetheless.

7. Not even thinking of adding salary at the trade deadline- Phil Jackson aside, the other incredibly baffling and head scratching move was not even entertaining trades at this deadline. In fact, they were downright STEADFAST that they weren’t making any moves. One can conclude that Melo really, really loved his team and his teammates and felt that this was the team to make a title run, but in my mind they needed help on the perimeter. They disagreed and stood pat. That’s odd except when I consider the fact that many of the players who were on the block like J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley are due money past this season. Not adding salary adds credence to the idea that they want to remain flexible as it relates to the salary apron in case there is a chance they can make a move in adding Paul.

8. Kenyon Martin- Martin was very active after joining the Knicks. Sort of puzzling isn’t it that no other team scooped him up and that he had zero interest in any other offers? Miami offered him in February. Why would he pass on the opportunity to collect that elusive first championship? Sure, Martin played with Melo and JR and has that level of comfortability, but couldn’t it be possible that he sat out most of the year because he plans on playing a few more? He’ll be a Knick next year in my mind for sure. Oh, and he played with CP3 in Los Angeles last season.

9. Paul’s future is still up in the air- Goes without saying.

Feel free to tell me that I’m speculating or reaching with any of these as long as you’re fair about it. That’s a lot of coincidences. I’m not saying it’s definitely going to happen or what the deal will be to make it happen, but if you’ve read all the way to this point it’s obvious I won’t be shocked if or when it happens.

http://theknicksblog.com/knicks/if-you-do-the-math-cp3-to-the-knicks-is-possible/

By Moke Hamilton, Special to TKB

You down with O.P.P.?

Other peoples players?

Yea, you are.

So that is whydespite the Knicks turning in their best season since 1996 and grabbing their first Atlantic Division title since 1994Knicks fans are quietly reliving their elementary school math classes. Adding two and two together, subtracting a long-term extension and calculating whether (and how) the Knicks can some way end up with Chris Paul.

The short answer is yes, it is possible, though highly improbable.

How improbable?

Paul would likely have to be willing to accept less than the $18.7 million max. salary he could earn under the first year of his new deal. The Knicks would have to give up several players they would probably rather keep, and the Clippers would probably have to agree to a trade that may not suit them.

Maybe all of the above.

The Finances

Of all financial mechanisms in the 2011 CBA, the most important, in my opinion, is the apron amount. Most fans know, generally, what the salary cap is. Fewer know what the luxury tax threshold is and that is mainly because,u p until the 2011 CBA, the luxury tax threshold was not really important.

Today, however, a number of restrictions are placed on teams with high payrolls, which makes the tax threshold and the apron amount vitally important.

Wait, whats the apron amount?

Good question. The apron amount is $4 million greater than the luxury tax threshold. So, for all intents and purposes, there are three important numbers to keep in mind. (1) The salary cap, (2) the luxury tax threshold, and (3) the apron amount.

Since the apron amount is a derivative of the tax threshold, all you need to remember is $4 million. Why is it $4 million? Because the league and the NBA players union agreed to that number, thats why.

For the 2012-13 NBA season, the salary cap was set at $58.04 million. The luxury tax threshold is $70.3 million. By definition, the apron amount is $74.3 million.

We will not know what these numbers are for the 2013-14 season until somewhere around July 10, 2013. That is when the NBA usually completes the financial analyses necessary to set the numbers. But for now, lets assume that the league collectively made a lot of money during the 2012-13 season, and lets assume that the salary cap for the 2013-14 season will be $60 million and the luxury tax threshold will be $72 million. By extension, the apron amount would be $76 million.

Under the 2011 CBA, the rule is simple: beginning July 1, 2013, a team cannot acquire a player who is being signed-and-traded if the teams payroll would exceed the apron amount after the trade is completed.

The Knicks Payroll

For the 2013-14 season, the Knicks currently have $75.7 million in guaranteed salaries committed to nine playersCarmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Steve Novak, Marcus Camby, Jason Kidd, Iman Shumpert and James White.

They will have the 24th pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, and that picks first-year salary will eat up $997,300 worth of payroll until signed.

So, as of right now, we can safely say that the Knicks will have $76.7 million in guaranteed salaries committed to ten players.

It is very important to note that J.R. Smith has a player option on the final year of his deal, and that option is worth $2.9 million. If Smith opts in to his deal, the Knicks payroll would be about $79.6 million. However, the prevailing sentiment is that Smith will opt out, so we will function under that assumption for now.

The other five Knicks playersQuentin Richardson, Earl Barron, Kenyon Martin, Pablo Prigioni and Chris Copelandwill all be unrestricted free agents following this season. If the Knicks wanted to pursue a sign-and-trade for Paul, they could walk away from all five players with no money counting against their cap.

How It Could Happen

It is possible for the Knicks to acquire Chris Paul in a sign-and-trade agreement as long as, after the trade, their payroll is less than the apron amount. Since this restriction applies AFTER the trade is completed, were really asking whether it is possible to complete a sign-and-trade where the Knicks finish with a payroll below $76 million.

The math is straightforward. To get from their projected $76.7 million to $76 million while adding Paul, the Knicks would have to send out at least $700,000 more than they take back. Paul is eligible to earn a first-year salary of $18.7 million, and is likely to want to maximize his earning potential wherever he goes.

In other words, if Paul is to be paid his maximum first-year salary, the Knicks would have to send out $19.4 million in the trade, and doing so would be difficult (more on that in a bit).

If, however, Paul was willing to accept a lower salarysay $15 millionthen the Knicks would only have to send out $15.7 million in salaries.

Since Paul is a free-agent, he could, in theory, accept less money that he is eligible for, and doing so could help to facilitate the deal.

Scenario A: If Paul wanted his max. salary, the Clippers would have to take back $19.4 million worth of salaries from the Knicks. The toughest part for the Knicks would be finding $19.4 million worth of salary that the Clippers would want to take back in return.

If the Clippers were willing to take Amare Stoudemire and his $21.7M salary for Paul, the trade would work, easily. But that is not likely.

That is why Chandler would have to go in any Paul deal. Again, its math.

Chandler will earn $14.1M next season. Mathematically, it would be impossible for the Knicks to send the Clippers $19.4 million without including Chandler. Even with him in the deal, the Clippers would have to accept at least two of the following players to get to $19.4 million and make the salaries match: Felton, Camby, Novak, Kidd and Iman Shumpert.

Of those players, Felton and Shumpert are probably the best values, and it is likely that, if forced to choose from that pool, the Clippers would want them.

Is Paul worth Chandler, Felton and Shumpert? Especially if J.R. Smith bolted via free agent?

Again, not my decision to make, but since we are talking about possibilities, you should know that it is possible that Paul would cost that much.

If Paul agreed to accept $15 million instead of his max. of $18.7 million, the Knicks would only need to send the Clippers $15.7 million in the trade.

That is a more manageable number. But again, even in such an instance, Chandler would have to go. The bright side (for the Knicks) is that the deal could happen with only one additional player from the Felton, Camby, Novak, Kidd and Shumpert pool.

Scenario B: Before executing their trade with the Clippers, the Knicks could trim their payroll by executing a separate trade with a team under the salary cap. A team under the salary cap could receive a player from the Knicks without the Knicks having to accept a player in return.

In theory, such a move could reduce the Knicks payroll (without Smith) from $76.7 million to somewhere closer to $72-$74 milliondepending on whom they trade.

Though the difference does not seem great, every little bit counts here, especially since Paul will probably want to maximize his earning potential.

If done, the amount the Clippers would need to take back in the trade would be reduced.

Scenario C: Pretty much the same as Scenario A, except that the Knicks could turn this into a multi-team trade that ends up with them getting Paul. Though it would be easy to find a team that is interested in Chandler, the Knicks would still have to send out at least $700,000 more in salaries than they were acquiring because, again, they would have to be under the apron after the trade was completed.

At the End of the Day

- There is a huge difference between possible and impossible and between probable and improbable. At the end of the day, few things are actually impossible; we just tend to designate things that are highly improbable as being impossible. Our purpose here was mainly to address whether or not it is possible for the Knicks to acquire Paul in a sign-and-trade arrangement.

The answer to that question is yes it is possible.

- There are a lot of unknowns here. We do not know what the luxury tax threshold will be. We do not know if Smith will opt out of his contract. We do not know if Paul would be willing to accept less than his maximum salary. Heck, we do not even know if the Clippers would be willing to entertain the idea of trading Paul.

- By rule, any sign-and-trade deal must be at least three years in length. For those wondering if Paul could take a very low salary on a one-year deal to help facilitate the trade and then re-sign a max. deal with the Knicks next summer after playing one season for them, the answer is no.

- By rule, the most Paul could receive in a sign-and-trade deal is a four year deal worth about $80 millionthe same he would be eligible for if he signed outright with a team with cap room. Under the 2011 CBA, you can no longer be signed-and-traded and still get a five-year deal.

- Pauls max. deal with the Clippers is five years, $107.5 million. So, even if the Knicks and Clippers were able to come to terms on an agreement, Paul would have to leave at least $27.5 million on the table this summer. That is very risky. He would have to really, really want to be a Knick.

Very very very very very unlikely that CP3 to the Knicks is happening, he would really really really hate LA that much and want to team up with Melo that much.

Or at least backup his "toast" talk.

Can't see him leaving that much money on the table. Either way, a Knicks fan can dream!

The Clippers are not S&T him to the Knicks unless Melo is going to LA in exchange.