Bonn1997 wrote:

and1 wrote:No, Kidd is just being selfish since he played the same amount of MPG last season in a similar role for the Mavs and his asp average has dropped by 2pg. That's the only reason why assists would go down right? Selfsihness. It couldn't be that for Melo his role is more defined as a finisher and to score.... not facilitate the whole offense as it has been at other times in his career. The drop in his asp this season off his career average from 3 to 2 is his selfishness.... can only be one way to interpret that. Makes complete sense... I'm on board... selfish Melo.

His FGA, assists, usage rate, and turnovers are all down. It doesn't take a genius to realize that just means he has a smaller role in the offense this year.

Yet he is their MVP (he and/or Chandler)

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

and1 wrote:No, Kidd is just being selfish since he played the same amount of MPG last season in a similar role for the Mavs and his asp average has dropped by 2pg. That's the only reason why assists would go down right? Selfsihness. It couldn't be that for Melo his role is more defined as a finisher and to score.... not facilitate the whole offense as it has been at other times in his career. The drop in his asp this season off his career average from 3 to 2 is his selfishness.... can only be one way to interpret that. Makes complete sense... I'm on board... selfish Melo.

His FGA, assists, usage rate, and turnovers are all down. It doesn't take a genius to realize that just means he has a smaller role in the offense this year.

Yet he is their MVP (he and/or Chandler)

FoeDiddy wrote:

dk7th wrote:

NUPE wrote:

tkf wrote:

nah, I understand the process, I enjoy watching those teams, they will be fine... you see this is not that deep for me.. the knicks have to win NOW, those teams don't...... you still a fan...

So says you. The Knicks have not won their division, a playoff series or the conference in how long?!?!? There is a lot of room for improvement and success this season without winning it all. The must win now mantra is simply a pathetic attempt on your part to reserve the right to claim this season is a failure. I see what you are doing, troll!

it would be great to hear what your standards are for this team? will a playoff appearance be enough? a second round appearance? an ECF appearance? what level would you deem success for this team?

I think the most fun thing of being a fan of a team is the journey. If you can't enjoy the journey what's the point of watching. Sports is entertainment. So every game we have to sit back and say this won't cut it unless they win a title? I can't accept this win cause Melo's Assist Usage Ratio was below my standards? We won but man we are paying Amare 100 mil..he should have 22 points vs. 18? Seems very depressing. Over the last decade we've had putrid teams that didn't even sniff the playoffs let alone a title and now it's Title or Bust LOL.

You know the 90s KNicks never won a title but I cherish that era cause they competed and left everything on the court. Mike Woodson's Knicks are doing the same thing. I can never say they lost cause of their effort. For me that's enough for me. In the meantime if they win a title while playing their tails off that's a bonus.

i don't see basketball as entertainment primarily, although a typical fan will. my form of enjoyment of the journey is doing what i do, which is analyze what is right and wrong with the team and imagining how it would and should improve. a "virtual" coach, maybe. or if not that then lets say i like to study the team and the game.

where i become more emotionally engaged is when a team-- hopefully my team finally-- gets to the second round. that at least shows some semblance of competence if not excellence. i get a kick out of excellence and even competence engenders my admiration. knicks have a chance at being at least competent this season. but their greatness depends on (1) felton getting better at orchestrating and (2) melo doing the things i have insisted that he must do. short of that i think woodson's task may be above his pay grade.

and i fully expect the same lame-assed excuses if they fail-- "melo's teammates didn't step up" is going to be the biggest and most predictable lame-ass excuse i guarantee it.

Bonn1997 wrote:

tkf wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

tkf wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

tkf wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

tkf wrote:

NUPE wrote:

tkf wrote:right now, kidd is the knicks MVP..

Your opinion rather than fact. Also, since most analyst have Melo #2 or #3 in MVP rankings while Kidd is nowhere to be found, I'd say your opinion is less than that of the minority.

tkf wrote:lets be honest with outselves.. the role players are replaceable.. so you are expecting the knicks to turn this team over every year?

Most Knick players are locked into contracts that extend beyond this year. Others, like JR will likely resign with NYK. The point you are attempting to make is not applicable to this NYK team.

tkf wrote:I agree every team has their issues, but those teams are already proven.. that is the difference.. and to be honest, it would be great to have a declining wade with lebron and bosh.. it would be great to have an aging celts team but have Rondo.... I am just not as confident as you are with our level of franchise talent... Give me a lebron and rondo and i would feel better about things going forward... this is where we differ and i respect your opinion...

There is only one LeBron and Rondo is not even the type of player you could build a team around, imo. The Knicks right now have Chandler, Kidd, Melo, Felton and Amar'e locked in for a few more years. That is a very sound nucleus. Amar'e has some health issues but so does Wade.

most analyst like who? I think you pay way too much attention to these mock rankings.. they have somewhat little value as that is not the actual voting... and a bit premature...kidd's value to the knicks has been immeasurable.... so sure, that is my opinion, I never said it was a fact...

the fact that camby, kidd and novak are locked into long term deals is not a good thing.. camby looks shot, novak we overpaid for and kidd I wonder how much he has left.. I really like this guy, but i don't see this level of play for a whole year, moreso 3...

what do you mean?

kidd has just been that big for our team.. almost too big to measure...his effect goes beyond wins.... even in our losses, you can take good from the things he does on the floor....and use that to improve on the following game.. I just love guys like that... not trying to start anything, but kidd is the type of franchise player this team needs.. and I am talking about a prime jason kidd, this is the type of guy you take the chance of trading away future picks, cap space, etc to get... Kid at 30 years of age is everything I would need to really get on board with such a move..... carmelo is just not even close to that type of player.... hence the apprehension I have with this team....

Can you prove this with numbers?

that is why is said immeasurable.....

but sure I will give it a shot.. Jason kidd has two roles for us.. Backup PG and SG at times... he is doing extremely well playing both positions.. first of all controlling the offense and distributing the ball where it needs to be on top of that, very good defense.. kidd is avg 9ppg with 3 boards and 3 assists, and remember he is not even controlling the ball most of the time. like he used to back in the day... he is avg less than a turnover a game, so that pretty much coincides with the knicks low turnover average as a team.. Felton is avg 2.3 turnovers per game, carmelo is pretty much right at 3.. so kidd protects the ball a lot more, although his usage rate may be less than both guys, it would be interesting to compare their turnovers in relation to usage rate...

another thing.. Kidd is shooting 48% from the field and 50% from three.. the knicks are basically a swing the ball three point offense, kidd is killing it from there... I am sure all of this plays a part in the Knicks overall offensive efficiency as we are near the top..

add in his steals at almost 2 per game the way he controls the offense, his shooting, efficiency, his defense, and his numbers don't tell the whole story... his impact is huge, it goes way past his numbers.. he is a guy that gives you more than what the numbers tell you.. it has been that way his whole career.. go back and look back at the year kidd was runner up for MVP.. his numbers didn't blow you away, he barely shot 40% that year, but his impact with the nets was so evident, you could not ignore it, you see, kidd made guys like kenyon martin and kerry kittles, better, he made richard jefferson look like a real player.. those guys didn't make kidd, he made them....

I think he is doing that to a lesser extent now.....

If Kidd's effectiveness is immeasurable why do you get so upset when Melo fans say basically the same thing about Melo's play?

i don't get upset at all, I just know that isn't the case and there is no history or evidence to support such a claim..

The irony is that Kidd's impact is measurable and the advanced stats are actually consistent with what TKF is saying about him.

kidd's TS% is 71.2 which is crazy good.

his usg/ast is .62:1 which is down from 1:2 earlier in the season but still better than felton's, who has a sickening 48.9%TS

he is the glue of this team, its most valuable player. without him the wheels will certainly fall off.

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Once you realize the importance of scoring efficiency (and it sounds like you now generally speaking do), when you watch the game you see it entirely differently. You're no longer distracted by flashy, high volume, inefficient offense.

I was always a stat geek. Just not for things that I don't understand like Win Shares.

When people say that Andre Miller was their type of player and he has a WS of .122 for his career, I question it.

When WS fails, we can fall to WP's ... I know.

I have read many dissenting args to WS's and cannot buy into it. You don't get it either - you were just told that its a viable stat. I don't like being told what to believe.

I have been fair in my assessment of what Carmelo is. I also hold out hope that he can be better and believe that he has improved this year. Explain his horrible assists numbers compared to 3.6 last year and tell me which year he was more selfish. PLEASE

HOPE is a good thing. The religion of science can be dangerous.

look i said the thing that hurt miller was not developing a 3-point shot.

i am not a fan of stats like win shares because it factors in way too many variables. i like stats okay but with too many moving parts the stat tends to obscure rather than clarify.

i see miller and i see a guy who plays the game the right way. savvy player.

1) the Somberhateattude is like a low-grade virus. Knick wins seem to diminish it's self-production of longer, virulent posts. Thank you, Melobiotics. The best offerings appear to be "zzzzzzzzzzzzzz" and "lawson is fast". And statistics of course by the boatload, which leads us to:

2) Statistics don't lie. They also can be used to explain how Nuggets losing is really Nuggets winning. Or at least, despite the statements of some of the Somberanians, that Gallo is still better, more savvy, more potential-per-possession and better looking and loved than Melo ever can hope to be. Wax statues aside.

3) Watching the games is setting some of them on edge now. Despite the holiday season. Which leads us to:

THE SOMBERITE TOP TEN LIST TO SANTA (in no particular order):
10. Melo gets hurt, Knicks go on to win a chip without him. Team captain Chandler decrees that Melo is not ring-eligible.
9. Melo plays the rest of the season, averages 35ppg, Knicks blown out in first round.
8. Dolan sells team mid season to the Steve Jobs estate, it's executors trade Melo for Gallo straight up, Knicks win a chip. Denver franchise folds. Melo plays in China.
7. Chandler, Kidd, Felton, Novak all break down, Melo doesn't, Knicks miss the playoffs on last game of the regular season.
6. Melo gets voted off Manhattan.
5. Denver re-signs AR, takes on ECurry, beats Knicks in the Finals 4-0. Gallo/Wilson/Moz co-co-MVPs.
4. Same as 5, but Brooklyn beats Knicks in Semis 4-0, loses to Denver in Finals 4-3. Melo apologizes for "The Trade".
3. Brooklyn goes on a 40 game win streak. Breaking all NBA team records. Each member of the N*yets averages a triple double. Avery brings out the Princeton offense and memories of Celtic basketball bring tears to everyone's eyes as N*yets win their first chip. Dolan moves the Knicks franchise to Delaware at the end of the season.
2. Melo retires at mid-season to play minor league baseball. Knicks immediately win a chip.
1. Denver and Brooklyn trade the Larry O'Brien back and forth for the next decade. Dolan sells the Knicks franchise to Major League Soccer. Melo sits on the bench for the Pistons.

fishmike wrote:JRod... you forgot 1a) Knicks go to finals. Every game comes down to last shot. Melo takes and misses each one. Knicks get swept. Players wrap soap in towels and pound him while whispering "its all a dream fatso" and Lala shows up drunk and horny at TFKs house.

I mean... lets be realistic

First off, even I can glean enough about tkf to know that he wouldn't even think about hitting anything that's been anywhere near 15 levels of separation from the AntiChrist.

Secondly, everyone knows his teammates call him "Mr. Svelte"

Thirdly, you in haterville are not allowed to type "Knicks go to finals" until after Melo is traded for cap space and draft picks.

fishmike wrote:

jrodmc wrote:

fishmike wrote:JRod... you forgot 1a) Knicks go to finals. Every game comes down to last shot. Melo takes and misses each one. Knicks get swept. Players wrap soap in towels and pound him while whispering "its all a dream fatso" and Lala shows up drunk and horny at TFKs house.

I mean... lets be realistic

First off, even I can glean enough about tkf to know that he wouldn't even think about hitting anything that's been anywhere near 15 levels of separation from the AntiChrist.

Secondly, everyone knows his teammates call him "Mr. Svelte"

Thirdly, you in haterville are not allowed to type "Knicks go to finals" until after Melo is traded for cap space and draft picks.

not likely he fetches such a haul

I was referring to the NBDL, obviously.

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:Whenever we look at any research findings and try to apply them to ourselves, we're "asserting the science to one person." When you ask questions like should I eat healthy, exercise, drink and drive etc., you're expressing a belief that applying the science to one person is smarter than ignoring that science.

True. But the possibly of being wrong 25 percent of the time with your analysis? Thats good for a poker game where in the long run you hope to be right 50-75 pct of the time/hands. Or remaining on the smarter side of caution.

Just realize that you can he can be the ONE of 4 where Mr. Berri is wrong.

The 75 to 90% doesn't mean that his interpretation of specific players will be completely wrong 1 in 4 times. It means that his predictions for team wins will be slightly off. If you add up the WP of the individual players and calculate the team's expected win total, he likely will not be exactly right but will be within 2 to 3 wins of the team's actual performance.
That said, I don't think the advanced stats are perfect. They probably *slightly* devalue shot-creation and slightly devalue Melo's contribution. Most fans dramatically overvalue shot-creation though.

I don't overvalue these shots. I hate them - and hated/hate when kobe takes/took them. With all those horrible/annoying shots, he was still a damn good player.

The question is, does a given player bring enough to the table to overcome these (awful) shots.

But the thing is, for a PF, Melo is below average in rebounding and blocks and about average in assist:TO and steals.

Kobe's 4 1/2 assists are also below average for the defacto PG - Want to see efficient, look at Wade. Kobe's efficiency numbers are trash compared to Wades.

And if you put him (kobe) at PF, he would probably be a below average rebounder.

wade for his career at shooting guard has a usage rate to assist rate (different from personal assists, it ) of 1:1 which is just about ideal for the position. 6 assists per game is very good indeed and 56.6TS% is just a bit low but he has never been a decent 3-point shooter for a shooting guard.

bryant has a surprisingly low usg/ast rate ratio of 1.33:1 which is great for a perceived ball hog. jordan's is also 1.33:1 for his career. this might very well be due to the triangle offense... which bryant has notoriously flouted often enough to his detriment and discredit. 4.7 assists is a bit low lets be honest, and his 55.5TS% is too low.