Is Deng ready to leave Duke?

By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Friday, March 12

With the college season winding down, the high school all-star circuit heating up and a much anticipated match between America's finest and a crack squad of international draft prospects heading our way at the Nike Hoop Summit (see below) -- the draft speculation season is hereby officially under way.

Who's in the draft? Who's out? Here's what we're hearing . . .

# Luol Deng out of the draft? Will Duke freshman Luol Deng stick around for a sophomore season at Duke? According to several NBA agents who've been hanging around Durham hoping to land Deng as their next client, Deng is staying in school for at least one more season.

Multiple agents reported to Insider that they've been told by Deng's family that he will not enter the draft this year. That's pretty much in keeping with his decision to forego a mid-first-round selection last year to attend Duke. Scouts predict that Deng would be a top-five pick if he were to declare this year.

We're leaving Deng on our list until the deadline. Many top prospects have changed their minds at the last minute when they've been assured of a top-five selection. Last year Chris Bosh was initially adamant that he was staying in school for his sophomore year before reversing course and declaring for the draft. In 2002, Duke's own Mike Dunleavy flipped positions once the Warriors promised him they'd make him the third pick in the draft.


Kosta Perovic
# Kosta Perovic is in: There has been speculation for weeks that Serbia's Kosta Perovic would be forced to stay out of this year's draft because his team, Partizan, wouldn't let him out of his contract. Perovic has no NBA buyout and team president and Sacramento Kings center Vlade Divac had been claiming that with starting center Nenad Kristic headed to the Nets this year, Perovic needed to stick around for another year or two.

Not anymore. Perovic's new agent, Bill Duffy, told Insider that he recently met with Divac in Sacramento and came to an agreement that will allow Perovic to enter the draft and leave for the NBA this summer if he is a top-10 selection.

"Vlade really wanted to do what was in the player and the club's best interest," Duffy told Insider. "I think we came to an agreement that will really benefit all of the parties."

Duffy wouldn't get into details about the buyout arrangement, but he was confident that it would calm any fears that NBA teams would have about taking Perovic in the lottery.

Scouts project the 7-foot-2, 19-year old Perovic as a top-10 pick who could go as high as No. 3 in this year's draft. He's played big time minutes in Serbia this season while Kristic was on the injured list, averaging 6.6 ppg and 4 rpg in 22 mpg in Euroleague play. Scouts feel he needs to get stronger physically, but don't disagree with Duffy's sentiments that Perovic could be a "more athletic version of Zydrunas Ilgauskas."


Latvia's Andris Biedrins
# Biedrins, Omerhodzic, Bogdanovic definitely in: The list of international prospect declaring for the draft continues to grow by the day. Insider has exclusively learned that three top 18- and 19-year-old international draft prospects, Andris Biedrins (Latvia), Damir Omerhodzic (Croatia) and Luka Bogdanovic (Serbia), will definitely be in this year's draft.

Biedrins just hired agent Bill Duffy and is working with his team on an NBA buyout as we speak. Duffy told Insider that he's confident that the two sides will work out something within the next few weeks. Biedrins is considered one of the top two or three international prospects in the draft. The 17-year-old, 6-11, 240-pound power forward has drawn comparisons to Andrei Kirlilenko because of his athleticism, shot blocking and defensive prowess at such a young age. While Biedrins' offensive skills are still pretty raw, scouts see him as a lock for the top 10. Biedrins is averaging 18.6 ppg and 8.2 rpg on 54 percent shooting in FIBA play this season.

Omerhodzic's situation is more delicate. His agent, Marc Cornstein, told Insider that difficult family circumstances are pushing Omerhodzic to put his name into this year's draft. Omerhodzic plays for one of the better teams in Europe, (Cibona in Zagreb, Croatia) but has been mired on the bench all season.

The few scouts who have seen the 18-year-old, 6-11 small forward play claim that he is one of the best young prospects in Europe. However, they also believe he's a little further behind, developmentally, than some of the other international and high school players entering the draft. Omerhodzic is very versatile, runs the floor like a guard and can play both inside and outside, though scouts project him mostly at the small forward position. If he scores well in workouts, Omerhodzic could rocket up the draft charts, but right now he's probably looking at a mid to late-first-round pick.


Serbia's Luka Bogdanovic
Bogdanovic is drawing comparisons to Peja Stojakovic and Vladimir Radmanovic because of his unbelievable shooting ability at his size. He also is a superb ball handler and big-time scorer in the Yugoslavian league. The big concern NBA scouts have with Bogdanovic is a rail thin frame. Right now he's only packing 200 pounds on a 6-9 frame.

He's going to have to get much stronger to be a factor in the NBA, but scouts are in love with his potential. He's averaging 10.6 ppg on 62 percent shooting for Red Star in the Adriatic League this season. Right now he's a late-first-rounder to mid-second-round pick. But he could skyrocket up the charts with a good performance at the Nike Hoop Summit and strong workouts.

There are few other big international players in the draft who are worth mentioning.

Sources told Insider early this week that 7-foot-1 Russian forward Ivan Chiriaev will put his name into the draft this year. He's expected to announce his decision at a March 22nd news press conference in Ontario. Chiriaev has been playing high school ball in Canada this season and has impressed scouts with his athleticism and ball handling ability for someone that size.

Chiriaev's draft stock is tough to project, however. He's been playing against weak competition and no one is really sure how he'll fare against better players. The first chance to really see Chiriaev in a better setting will come at the Hoop Summit in April when he plays for the international squad.

Slovenia's Uros Slokar will also be in. Slokar's agent, Roger Montgomery, told Insider that Slokar has received enormous interest from scouts. Slokar is a 20-year-old, 6-10 power forward playing on one of the best team in Europe, Benetton Treviso. He's averaging 4.9 ppg and 2.4 rpg in just under 13 mpg for Benetton in Euroleague play. While the numbers don't really stand out, several scouts claim that he's a legit late-first-round pick based on his size, toughness around the basket and soft 20 foot shooting touch.

Agent David Bauman told Insider last week that another of his clients, Croatia point guard Roko Lenic Ukic, is definitely in this year's draft. He will be joined by three other Bauman clients -- Bogdanovic, Sasha Vujacic and Erazem Lorbek -- Insider has learned.

Vujacic made a major buzz at the Chicago pre-draft camp last season. The 6-foot-7 combo guard has been lighting it up this year for Udine in Italy and has drawn rave reviews from scouts. He's likely a mid-first-round pick.

Lorbek also declared and withdrew from the draft last season. He spent one year at Michigan State and played in Italy for Skipper Bologna this year. Lorbek will be testing the waters again this year looking for a team in the late first round to take a gamble. The 6-10 power forward from Slovenia is averaging 3.4 ppg and 2.3 rpg in 10 mpg for Skipper. Lorbek is locked into a contract with Skipper one more year, so a team that took him would have to leave him in Europe for another season.

# Simien, Banks, Samardzski, Splitter out? Here's a quick look at few other big names who claim they won't put their names in this year's draft.

Kansas power forward Wayne Simien wants to return for his senior season at Kansas, several sources close to the forward told Insider. Simien is probably a mid-first-rounder right now who could jump into the lottery with a dominant senior season. However, there are risks involved. Simien has a history of injuries and could damage his stock if he misses long periods of time next season.

ESPN.com college freshman of the year Sean Banks is also claiming that he's staying for his sophomore season at the University of Memphis. Banks has risen from obscurity to the third hottest college freshman (behind Deng and Wake Forest's Chris Paul) on NBA draft boards. While Banks can certainly help his stock by having a stellar sophomore campaign, he could also hurt it. Banks caught everyone by surprise and has enormous buzz right now. He'll be scrutinized much heavier next season. Can he live up to the loftier expectations?

Two other international forwards will likely stay out of the draft. Macedonian big man Peja Samardzski will likely sit this draft out, according to his agent, Marc Cornstein. Cornstein told Insider that Samardzski's inability to crack the senior team rotation at Partizan is a big factor. Scouts have had a difficult time seeing him. With both Nenad Kristic and Kosta Perovic likely heading to the NBA this season, the path for Samardzski to make it onto the senior team and get significant minutes seems clear.

Splitter may still put his name in the draft, but sources claim it's very unlikely that he'll keep it in. Buyout issues with his team, Tau Vitoria, and a lack of playing time this year have pretty much convinced his agents to keep him in Europe one more year before unleashing him in the NBA.

# International Nike Hoop Summit Roster: After a three-year hiatus, the Nike Hoop Summit is back and will be played on Sunday, April 4th in San Antonio in conjunction with the Final Four.

The American squad was officially announced last week and includes NBA draft prospects Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, Sebastian Telfair, LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Jefferson along with other top high school ballers Jordan Famer, Rudy Gay, Malik Hairston, J.R. Smith and Mike Williams.

Insider got an exclusive peek at who they'll be playing against on the international under-20 side. Among the list of invitees -- Pavel Podkolzine (Russia), Andris Biedrins (Latvia), Yi Jianlin (China), Roko Lenic Ukic (Croatia), Luka Bogdanovic (Serbia), Johan Petro (France), Ivan Chiriaev (Russia via Toronto), Sergio Rodriguez (Spain), Wojciech Barycz (Poland); Andrea Bargnani (Italy) and Marcus Vinicius Vieria de Souza (Brazil).

Several of them, including Podkolzine and Biedrins, are still trying to get permission to leave their teams and play, but all sides are confident that something will be worked out.

Korea's Ha Seung-Jin was also invited, but other commitments will keep him from being attending.

Podkolzine (7-5, 300) and Biedrins (6-11, 240) are considered likely lottery picks in this year's draft. Ukic (6-5, 185), Bogdanovic (6-9, 200) and Chiriaev (7-1, 220) are also expected to be taken in the first round. Vieria de Souza (6-9, 200) will also be in the draft, but is considered a second-rounder at the moment. Yi, who is just 17, will be a high lottery pick once he's allowed to declare for the draft. Rodriguez, Barycz and Bargnani are all considered future top picks for the 2005 NBA Draft.

The event has always been a fertile scouting ground for scouts. Some of the international players discovered at previous Hoop Summits include Dirk Nowitzki, Tony Parker, Vladimir Radmanovic and Bostjan Nachbar.

Mavs' Nowitzki not up to par

By Terry Brown
NBA Insider
Friday, March 12
Updated: March 12
10:20 AM ET

It only hurts in Dallas when Dirk Nowitzki laughs.

"There was a stretch where I couldn't hit an open 15-footer," the forward told the Dallas Morning News back on March 9. "But these times pass."

But after losing to the Sacramento Kings Thursday night by 18 points, Mavericks fans are still waiting.

"It was an old-fashioned butt kicking, that's what it was," head coach Don Nelson said. "We got our butts beat tonight. They played terrific. They just cut us apart. It was a very poor performance by us."

Sure, Nowitzki had 21 points, but he was also 1-for-6 from long range. In their loss to the Spurs last Friday, by 13 by the way, he also had 21 points but only one assist. And in their loss to the Timberwolves the Wednesday before that, he had only 15 points on 5-for-13 shooting.


Dirk Nowitzki
Forward-Center
Dallas Mavericks
Profile


2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
59 21.3 8.5 2.8 .453 .878

That's three big games in a row in which the Mavericks not only lost but their best player failed to play up to his all-star credentials. And, needless to say, you're not going to win in this league without your best player.

In fact, a look at Nowitzki's stats reveal how this trend has carried through the entire season.

Nowitzki
When Dallas wins: 23.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.4 bpg, 47% field, 39% three, 90% FT
When Dallas losses: 17.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.1 bpg, 39% field, 20% three, 82% FT

Another look reveals why the Mavericks are having a tougher time this season at 40-24 than they did last year when they finished 60-22.

Nowitzki
Last year: 25.1 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 3 apg, 1.3 spg, 1 bpg, 46% field, 38% three, 88% FT
This year: 21.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.3 bpg, 45% field, 32% three, 87% FT

This year is Nowitzki's worst shooting season since his rookie campaign five years ago. His scoring and rebounding totals haven't been this low in four years. And, as a result, it is quite possible the Mavs' worst season in terms of expectations as their payroll has bloated to $79 million (third highest in the NBA) while their Western Conference standing has fallen to a tie for fifth only three games from seventh.

"I don't think we played hard enough or with enough passion," Mavericks guard Steve Nash said. "It was a poor performance. It's very frustrating. We're very inconsistent. It's new territory for us. We can't quite find the answers to it."

But it isn't really as bad as it seems. Yes, Dallas just got hammered by the Kings. They got hammered by the Spurs and Timberwolves, too, last week. In fact, to those three title contenders, they gave up a total of 354 points and lost by a total of 55.

But those losses did come on the road and they did come during a tough stretch.

"Anybody we play on the road is a good team because we haven't fared very well there," Mavs coach Don Nelson said in the Ft. Worth Star Telegram. "You can't hide the fact that we're not winning a very high percentage on the road. We have to start doing that. It's really that simple."

But it's also equally simple that every team has to play on the road and every team has a tough stretch.

In fact, only four teams in the Western Conference have a winning record away from home. And with seven of their remaining 10 road games against sub .500 teams, Dallas can still come within a few games of breaking even.

And even more heartening for Maverick fans is the fact that the Mavs are still 11-8 versus the top teams in the league. We're talking the Lakers, Spurs, Kings, Timberwolves, Pacers, Pistons and Nets. Even after they dumped those last three games, they're ahead of the curve. In fact, they're ahead of the Lakers, who are 9-8 against same said teams, and the Spurs, who are 6-10.

The Timberwolves have the best record against these teams at 11-5, but only after dropping their first four of the year and before losing three of their last four games against the rest of the league.

Let's not forget that between Dec. 5 and Nov. 28, the Lakers lost seven consecutive games to these teams. It took the Spurs until Feb. 22, their 56th game of the season, before they put back-to-back wins against these guys after starting 2-8 against them.

Even the Kings, who have the best record in the NBA with the Pacers and have gone 9-5 against these teams, went 4-5 against them between Dec. 5 and Feb. 17.

Everybody has a tough stretch. Everybody losses some games.

"We haven't been losing to dummies," point guard Steve Nash said in the Dallas Morning News. "But at the same time, these are games we used to win. At least some of them."

The Mavericks have still won seven of their last 10 games. They're still 11-10 against the toughest division in the league (compared to 8-8 for division-eading Minnesota) and are still 3-1 versus the Spurs.

And Nowitzki, yet to play his best ball of the season with 18 regular-season games to go, is still hoping to have the last laugh.

* Mavericks routed on the road
Art Garcia / Fort Worth Star-Telegram
* Mavs' road woes continue in 120-102 loss
David Moore / Dallas Morning News
* Nowitzki misfiring from long range
Eddie Sefko / Dallas Morning News

Peep Show

NBA Insider
Friday, March 12
Updated: March 12
11:11 AM ET


Allen
Seattle SuperSonics: Ray Allen is going kicking and screaming into a playoff-less offseason. "Nothing changes up on my routine," Allen insisted. "I still have a game to play. I don't ever want to miss a shot, or look bad out there. After the last game of the season, I might have a cheeseburger or something like that because I don't have anything to worry about. But until that day comes ... nothing changes. I hope these guys feel the same way." But that doesn't seem to go the same for teammate Vitaly Potapenko, who missed the team bus. "You don't miss the bus or practice," head coach Nate McMillan said in the Tacoma Tribune. "There is no excuse for that. There is no excuse if we don't know why you are not on that bus before that bus takes off."

Washington Wizards: About that Jerry Stackhouse talk about ending his season . . . "I've been feeling good, the therapy and everything is going well. I wanted to come and test it out," said Stackhouse in the Washington Post after practicing with the team recently. "When I said I was done, it was an accumulation of frustration from not being able to play how I want to play along with being in pain and having soreness." Stackhouse had surgery on his right knee earlier in the season and couldn't seem to shake the pain and discomfort until now. "There's a consensus for me being on the floor and helping us finish on a strong note. I'm all for it," Stackhouse said.


Mobley
Houston Rockets: Welcome back Cuttino Mobley. "I shot a little better because of my back," he said in the Houston Chronicle after shooting 10-for-17 Thursday night with six 3-pointers. "The game against the Lakers kind of killed me, and I reinjured it against Minnesota. And everybody knows when your back's messed up . . . I'm not trying to make excuses. Everybody knows that I play with injuries, it's no big thing to me." But his shooting touch is. "I looked up and we were up two, and then I looked up again and we were up 10," Mobley said. "I just took it upon myself. I passed a little too much in the first quarter, and I came out in the second quarter and just put (shots) up."

Orlando Magic: Don't get too excited about Tracy McGrady's 62 points last week. He's going for 70. "It'll happen before I retire," he predicted in the Orlando Sentinel. And he seems to have the full support of his teammates. "You don't know when you're going to have one of those games again," point guard Ty Lue said. "So we just kept feeding him."

Los Angeles Lakers: So it's all Phil Jackson's fault, then. "You have to look at yourself and say, 'What am I doing wrong or what am I doing that's irritating?'" Jackson said in the Chicago Tribune. "I had to sit down and have a talk with Kobe. Basically, my idea was to leave Kobe alone, give him an opportunity to create his own lifestyle in what is a difficult year for him. With Payton, I've tried to limit his minutes, but he kind of railed against that . . . I am one who sometimes doesn't clear the air. I let it sit awhile and linger so it gets across to the player. [This time] I went a little too long. But Kobe and I got some things straightened out after the All-Star Game. At least we found a way to say, 'Let's get on with the season.'"