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Folks, the playoffs have begun, for everyone, that is, with the possible exception of the Indiana Pacers. They're probably the only team that has a lock on their playoff spot.

Even in light of last year's implosion, it's a pretty safe bet that with a 7½-game lead and only 21 to play, Indiana has clinched home-court throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs, and potentially the Finals as well. Their schedule is much more favorable than Sacramento's or Minnesota's, which should give them the edge for best record overall.

But everything else is undecided, and injuries and the ability to win on the road could ultimately determine who's in and who has home-court in the first round.

Let's start out West, where the race for the best record seems to be wide open. Four teams have a legitimate chance, but my money is on Sacramento. While San Antonio and L.A. are surging, Minnesota has faltered miserably, losing to both the 76ers (without Allen Iverson) and Celtics (at home) in the past week. And those were sandwiched around a tough loss to the Houston Rockets at home.

That stretch could cost them home-court, because all these teams will be battling one another over the next five weeks, and making up more than three games may be next to impossible. That's why I also don't think the Lakers or Spurs have a chance, either. All four should have home-court in the first round, which is critical (especially for Minnesota, which has lost seven first-round series in a row).


The Memphis Grizzlies have elbowed their way into playoff contention in the West.
Where, you might ask, is Dallas? The high-powered Mavericks are in the middle of a stretch in which they play 11 of 14 on the road. That's not good, because they're an abysmal 11-19 on the road and Friday were torched by San Antonio (without Tim Duncan, no less) for 113 points, and Sunday they lost at Houston.

And did I mention that Memphis is right on Dallas' heels for the No. 5 seed, having won four in a row, eight of their last 10 and 14 of 17 since the beginning of February? That's not a good combination if you're the Mavs, because without home-court in the first round, I don't think Dallas can advance.

The Nuggets are another team in desperate need of getting their world together. They've lost seven of eight and have six of their next seven on the road, five against potential playoff teams. Even more dire for the Nuggets is how they end the season; get this: at Phoenix and Houston, home to Portland and Sacramento, then at San Antonio. You don't want your playoff hopes riding on that stretch, because three of those teams (and maybe four) still will be playing for either the playoffs or seeding. Good luck.

In the East, it's even more clouded at the bottom of the barrel. The top three are basically settled, but everything else is wide open. I like Milwaukee and New Orleans to battle for the 4 and 5 spots, and the Bucks have a legitimate shot. The only problem is they are a jump-shooting team, and that could hurt them down the stretch. With so many teams still in the running, the more-versatile Hornets could have the edge, but that battle will be interesting.


Carlos Boozer
Power Forward
Cleveland Cavaliers
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2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
56 14.9 11.4 2.1 .517 .766
I think the Knicks and Cavs both will make it. The Cavs are playing great, and with Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Carlos Boozer, they have a potent 4/5 combination that not many teams in the East can match (OK, the Pistons and Pacers are pretty good on the frontline, as well). But Cleveland has great depth and now has started to win on the road -- a must for a team with playoff aspirations.

So it all comes down to the eighth and final spot, where the Celtics, Raptors, Heat and Sixers are battling. All but Philadelphia have shown a pulse and played as if they want to make the playoffs. The Celtics are playing great defense and won a huge game in Minnesota on Sunday. Do they have enough to hold on and make it? Probably not, but you better take them seriously. The Heat have been one of the great stories of the year, and Lamar Odom has become a bonafide star and competes every night he takes the floor. They have a great shot.

But for some reason I keep thinking Allen Iverson will find a way to will the depleted 76ers into the playoffs. That last spot could come down to the last game -- Philly at Orlando. It just might matter after all.