Bucks could stop here

By Terry Brown
NBA Insider
Tuesday, February 24
Updated: February 24
12:55 PM ET

It isn't the Knicks or the Raptors or the Heat who are going to catch the Bucks.

It isn't the scoreboard or the standings, but rather the clock.

After a 54-game season still in the unfolding in which they've scratched and clawed to an impressive 29-26 record to come within half a game of the fourth seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, the Milwaukee Bucks now face the toughest March schedule in the Eastern Conference.

One-half game. Point zero, zero, nine percentage-wise behind the New Orleans Hornets.

But that could mean all the difference in the world.

The Hornets, on the other hand, face five straight opponents who have sub .500 records. Then, after a game in Houston, they get another five opponents with sub .500 records. This is key for them. They're currently the fourth-seeded team in the Eastern Conference but only a half game ahead of the aforementioned Bucks, who not only have a four-game road trip to open the month of March but also a five-game West Coast trip near the end of it with four of their six homes games against teams with winning records.

Now, home-court advantage may not mean a lot to the Hornets with a decent 13-15 road record, but it would be a world of difference to the Bucks, the current fifth seed and, as it stands now, their first-round opponent.

The Bucks are 21-7 at home and 8-19 on the road.

And may have come within half a game of reaching the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Eastern Conference March Schedules
1. New York Knicks
Strength of Schedule: 12 (6 road, 5 quality, 1 b2b)
Don't get too excited New Yorkers. This is just the chewy center. To get to March, the Knicks have four straight road games through the Western Conference, the toughest against the Kings to start off, the easiest supposedly being against the 18-40 Suns. But that game comes less than 24 hours after the playing in Sacramento and comes against some former teammates who may not like Marbury basking in all the Eastern Conference limelight while they wallow in the Western Conference cellar. And after they finish off this cream puff of a month (in which 4 of their 6 road games are against non-playoff teams) they get five road games in their final seven games to finish off the season. After all the hype, they maybe 3½ from claiming home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, but they're also only three games from being eliminated.

2. New Orleans Hornets
Strength of Schedule: 14 (7 road, 3 quality, 4 b2b)
See above.

3. Miami Heat
Strength of Schedule: 15 (5 road, 7 quality, 3 b2b)
Eight of the Miami's first nine games are at friendly American Airlines Arena, where the 25-33 Heat are 17-11. And then three of their four road games to close out the month are against the Wizards, Magic and Hawks with a home game against the Bulls somewhere in between. Believe it or not, we may have two Van Gundys, or is it Van Gundies, in the postseason. They may be six games out of the fourth seed but they can use this schedule to put some cushion between them and elimination. Currently, they are the eighth seed with only 1½ games between them and Cleveland.

4. Detroit Pistons
Strength of Schedule: 16 (8 road, 6 quality, 2 b2b)
With February games against the Bulls, Hawks and Clippers, the Pistons should be able to build up some momentum to tackle the four-game road trip through the West that awaits them in March, only one of which is against an opponent with a winning record. But they're going to need all of that plus some when they get back. Starting March 18, they've got six straight games against teams either in the playoffs or scratching to get in. But they have plenty of wiggle room. They're seven games from catching the Pacers, so the best they can do is the third seed. And that's pretty safe since they're four games ahead of the Bucks and the fifth seed. But this, again, is about momentum.

5. Philadelphia 76ers
Strength of Schedule: 16 (7 road, 6 quality, 3 b2b)
This migth mean something if the Sixers were the eight or even ninth seed. But as we speak, they are the 10th seed, which doesn't make Allen Iverson's shoulder feel any better. And without Allen Iverson, it isn't even going to matter that four of their first six games of March are at home (with one road game against the Bulls) or that the four immediately following them are on the road against playoff bound teams. For the record, the Sixers are only 1½ games behind the Heat for the eighth and final playoff spot. For the real story, check with the Sixer trainer.

6. Toronto Raptors
Strength of Schedule: 16 (7 road, 6 quality, 3 b2b)
The number of road games isn't staggering. They can deal with six opponents with winning records. Even the three back-to-back sets can be dealt with. The hard part about the Raptors' schedule in March is that they don't get a break in between the tough games to take a breath. What should be their easy stretch of the month, a four-game homestand between March 10 and 19, comes against two teams that will be fighting for playoff berths themselves in the Cavs and Jazz. Sure, they've got the Wizards and Bulls and Hawks on the schedule, but those games are always sandwiched against contending teams and never in bunches. They've got a three-game cushion between them, the seventh seed, and the Heat, the eighth seed, and may need all of it to squeeze in the postseason.

7. Cleveland Cavaliers
Strength of Schedule: 17 (7 road, 7 quality, 3 b2b)
It is Feb. 24th and let me say this loud and clear. The Cavs must win Feb. 27 in Orlando. They must win March 1 in Chicago. They must win March 3 against the Hawks at home. The Cavs are currently the ninth-seeded team in the Eastern Conference, 1½ game behind the Heat, who have a relatively easy March schedule. So, they may actually be chasing the Raptors, who are four games ahead of them in Lose column. And after those three must-win games, 10 of their next 13 games are against teams that are either in the playoffs or fighting like them to get in. Now repeat after me. The Cavs must win on . . .

8. Boston Celtics
Strength of Schedule: 19 (6 road, 9 quality, 4 b2b)
The Celtics can beat the Bucks this Wednesday. They can beat Toronto in a home-and-home series to close out February. They can beat their next two opponents at home, especially considering that they're the Magic and the Wizards. That's five winnable games as they stand two games out of the eighth seed. But why should we care when all evidence says that Danny Ainge doesn't? Of course, the rest of the March schedule is a dark alley with guys like Shaq, Tim Duncan, KG, Jermaine O'Neal and Jason Kidd around every corner, but who really thinks they're going to put up a fight to even get there?

9. Indiana Pacers
Strength of Schedule: 19 (9 road, 7 quality, 3 b2b)
This is nothing more than Al Harrington's trial by fire. The Pacers didn't add Rasheed Wallace. They didn't hire a new coach to spur them on to a 13-game win streak. They don't have Karl Malone ready to come off injured reserve. What they do have is a seven-game stranglehold on the Eastern Conference with the next closest opponent, the Nets, actually having a tougher March schedule than they do. So, with Ron Artest healing up, this is Harrington's chance to shine and become that extra boost the Pacers are going to need to get by the 'Sheeds and Lawrence Franks and Mailmen of the playoffs. But have no doubt this is going to be a trial with a four-game West Coast swing, home games against the Blazers and Kings and Mavs and then a back-to-back tooth and nail scrap with the Bucks to end the month.

10. New Jersey Nets
Strength of Schedule: 19 (10 road, 6 quality, 3 b2b)
This isn't a schedule. This is Lawrence Frank's victory tour. Win No. 14 should come against the Raptors tonight. And if he can get No. 15 in Minnesota and No. 17 against the Lakers, then the four-game Western Conference road trip ain't gonna matter. They'll be bulletproof by then. But if not, we're gonna see how good a coach Frank really is because there isn't going to be a lot of time to pick his team up and dust them of should it falter in March, which includes an away game in Madison Square Garden and a three-game trip almost immediately following. And while the opponents don't seem too intimidating, it will be the Nets' ninth road game in 25 days (stretching from San Francisco to Miami to Boston to L.A.) with one more to go to finish the month.

11. Milwaukee Bucks
Strength of Schedule: 20 (10 road, 7 quality, 3 b2b)
See above.