Is ‘Lin-sanity’ here to stay in New York?
All season, Knicks fans have been tracking every update on when Baron Davis, the presumed savior at point guard, might finally be able to step onto the court and organize an offense that has ranked 20th or worse in points per possession almost all season — a stunning thing for a team built around two scoring stars. Davis suffered another setback in his recovery from a herniated disk Monday, but New York fans have already forgotten that setback happened. Jeremy Lin — a 23-year-old undrafted point guard from Harvard, one of the few Asian-Americans to reach the NBA and a cast-off of two Western Conference teams — has arrived to save the Knicks’ season. And to serve as one of the league’s most powerful marketing vehicles.
Lin has played 80 mostly dazzling minutes over New York’s last two games — home victories against New Jersey and Utah. Those 80 minutes are more than he received all season before Saturday’s game against the Nets. Those 80 minutes make up nearly one-third of the time the Warriors gave him last season before dumping him to free up salary space in a failed pursuit of the Clippers’ DeAndre Jordan. They represent 80 more minutes than the Rockets, one of the league’s savviest franchises, gave Lin before waiving him on Christmas Eve.
And in those 80 minutes, Lin has scored 53 points, dished out 15 assists and led the Knicks to back-to-back wins in which they scored at a points-per-possession rate above the league average. New York had accomplished that feat in back-to-back games just once before “Lin-sanity” set in. He has attempted 9.3 free throws per 36 minutes as a Knick, a mark that would rank behind only LeBron James and Dwight Howard if Lin had enough minutes to qualify for such leaderboards. He has assisted on 47.2 percent of New York’s baskets while on the floor, trailing only presumed future Knick Steve Nash.This is outrageous, and outrageously fun. But Lin-sanity isn’t going to last, at least not at this efficiency level and in this volume of minutes. Carmelo Anthony and Davis will get healthy; Amar’e Stoudemire, going through a horrific family tragedy, will be back; and the opposition will get better.
New Jersey ranks last in points allowed per possession, and Utah is down to 21st after a relatively stingy start. The Nets are probably the worst pick-and-roll defensive team in the league, with various slow-footed big-man combinations that just can’t contain the play. They rank last in points per possession allowed on pick-and-rolls finished by the roll man, and 23rd on points surrendered when the ball-handler finishes the play, per Synergy Sports. Utah is below-average against the play, and the Knicks tortured poor Al Jefferson, who looked like he usually has during his career while defending outside the paint.
The Knicks won’t always be able to spread the floor with shooting-heavy small lineups, as they did Monday because of personnel absences. With Steve Novak and Bill Walker logging heavy time at power forward, Utah had no second big man in position to rotate into the lane as Lin’s pick-and-roll partner darted toward the rim. The Knicks can use Stoudemire as a floor-spreader on Tyson Chandler pick-and-rolls, but the effect isn’t as dramatic. More defenses will go under picks, daring Lin to unleash his shaky jumper. The eight turnovers Lin committed Monday will obviously stand as outliers in terms of raw number, but he has always been turnover-prone in his (brief) NBA career.
But you know what? Enough raining on the parade. This guy can run a pick-and-roll, and everyone around the league has long known that. He is crafty and patient, with a strong sense of timing and angles. He knows right away when he has the tiny sliver of space through which to spread a pocket pass, and he has good touch on those lobs to Chandler — even if some he threw against Utah were slow-paced enough that a defense with sounder rotations might have been able to tip them.
At least three times in the last two games, he has gotten himself open driving lanes on the same simple action with Chandler. On each possession, Chandler trailed the play as the last Knick to cross half court in delayed transition. Chandler jogged toward Lin, preparing to set a screen to his teammate’s left. Three times, Lin noticed Chandler’s defender preparing to jump the pick as Lin’s man slid toward the Chandler screen, ready to chase Lin over it. Three times, Lin seized on the momentum of the two defenders and simply drove right, wrong-footing both of them on way to easy layup chances.
He doesn’t force passes, which is a major asset for a point guard. Lin’s turnovers in the NBA have come mostly on the dribble and from telegraphing obvious passes, rather than chasing ill-advised, highlight-reel dishes. In Golden State, Lin was actually more turnover-prone in spot-up situations where he played off the ball, took a pass and drove to the rim, according to Synergy Sports. Knicks coach Mike D’Antoni may use Lin that way when Anthony is healthy, but probably not as often as the Warriors did in limited minutes.
If the pick-and-roll doesn’t yield an easy pass to the roll man, Lin has usually taken a dribble or two in to draw the attention of a perimeter defender and then kicked the ball to a spot-up shooter in good position to go to work. That’s the smart, low-risk play, and both Novak and Walker benefited from it against Utah.
Again, Lin can do this. He might turn the ball over a bit too much and struggle from long range, though he hit a few mid-range shots against New Jersey when Deron Williams went under picks. Even there, Lin demonstrated some savvy by running one pick-and-roll, taking note of Williams’ decision to go under the pick and then running a second one to get a few feet closer to the hoop.
Serving as a point guard is the most realistic projection for Lin. If he can do that job effectively for 15 minutes per game, the Knicks have something. Remember, the Knicks ranked 24th in points per possession before Lin got major minutes. Stoudemire, an all-time great pick-and-roll finisher, had been removed from the play as Anthony and Toney Douglas struggled to get him the ball. New York isolated more than any team in the league despite being one of the two or three most inefficient isolation teams. A banged-up Anthony is shooting 29 percent on isolation plays and has attempted more shots via isolation than anyone but Kobe Bryant.
Change a dozen of those possessions over 15 minutes a night from bad isolations or non-threatening pick-and-rolls into something else? That makes a difference in a team’s efficiency. It makes a difference when a team is 10-15, struggling to find any consistency and battling the Bucks for the final playoff seed. Heck, in a shortened season, Lin has already made a difference by leading the Knicks to two needed home wins. Being 10-15 is a lot better for a team’s playoff odds than being 8-17 off two losses in winnable home games as we breeze past the one-third mark of this crazy season.
Lin probably can continue to make a difference. He won’t explode like this for 40 minutes a night, but he doesn’t have to.
If it didn’t work in Phoenix with Nash and Stoutamire... it’s just not a winning formula. It’s an entertaining formula, but not a winning one. - Derek Harper talking about D'Antoni's System
Lin chose to attend Harvard.