Isaiah Thomas was the last player selected in the 2011 draft, and that's a good place to start today.
Watching the diminutive Thomas run circles around the Raptors in the second half Wednesday night -- he finished with 20 points and six assists to lead Sacramento to a 98-91 win over Toronto -- drove home the point that had already been established in the season's opening weeks: This rookie class is making a serious impact.
That's not the bill of goods we were sold heading into this season. This class wasn't highly regarded in terms of A-list talent, and that still may prove to be the case -- there doesn't appear to be a Blake Griffin or Dwight Howard in this bunch, for instance. Additionally, the lockout kept a lot of promising prospects in school, and as a result, this season's rookie crop came in with low expectations.
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Suffice it to say they've over-delivered. In part, this is because of increased opportunity. Since a number of end-of-rotation-caliber veterans chose the security of a contract overseas over the dice roll of the NBA lockout, more rookies have been thrust into immediate playing time than in past seasons. A dozen rooks are getting more than 20 minutes a game and 27 average at least 10; that doesn't happen this early in a season without several veterans getting out of the way.
Five second-round picks -- Thomas, Milwaukee's Jon Leuer, New York's Josh Harrellson, Golden State's Charles Jenkins and Houston's Chandler Parsons -- are getting major minutes already. And two rookie point guards, Brandon Knight and Jimmer Fredette, have played over 20 minutes a night even though their performances can charitably be described as "uneven."
Finally, we'll put in the additional asterisk that some "veteran" rookies are skewing the numbers. Atlanta's Ivan Johnson, Memphis' Jeremy Pargo, Miami's Terrel Harris, and Boston's Greg Stiemsma aren't rookies in the traditional sense. One could argue the same for Minnesota sensation Ricky Rubio, who was drafted three years ago.
With all those caveats, what's stood out most of all is the quality of this class. The kids are alright, as it turns out. Twenty-eight rookies have enough minutes to qualify for the PER leaderboard, and 14 of them are above the league average of 15.00. Several more are just shy of that mark. Even those who haven't played much have had their moments -- Marcus Morris, for instance, isn't getting any burn in Houston but completely tore up the D-League on his recent three-game tour, while high draft picks such as Tristan Thompson, Enes Kanter and Alec Burks have been productive in limited minutes while biding their time.
Nonetheless, thus far the biggest impact has come from a subset of five rookies. Interestingly, three of them were taken 14th or later, and another came into the league with some major questions. While there's plenty of time for others to get into the race, I suspect one of these five will win the Rookie of the Year trophy given the combination of opportunity and production.
The envelopes, please:
5. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio
Leonard has shown in the past three games why the Spurs were so willing to part with George Hill to obtain Leonard's rights, scoring double figures in all three. He's shooting 50 percent on the season, and while he hasn't shown a 3-point stroke, he's been able to step in and hit 18-footers consistently.
As expected, he's also providing beastly rebounding from the small forward spot at 9.2 per 40 minutes, and defensively he has one of the best steal rates at his position. Manu Ginobili's injury has opened the door for Leonard to get more playing time, but he'd have to take Richard Jefferson's job to have a realistic shot at the Rookie of the Year. Regardless, it's been an impressive start for a non-lottery pick; he's sixth among rookies in PER and fifth in estimated wins added.
4. Markieff Morris, Phoenix
Morris raised eyebrows when he scored 15 points in 16 minutes in a loss to Oklahoma City. Since then his production has ebbed a bit, but his full-season numbers still stand out. Morris' per-40-minute stats speak for themselves: 16.3 points and 11.1 boards -- and he's done it with a 59.9 true shooting percentage. He may not shoot that efficiently all season, but given his developing 3-point game, we can't rule out the possibility. The fact that he adds rebounding and toughness to the equation makes him an effective player.
Nonetheless, Morris doesn't have the upside of the top three players on this list; for him to win the Rookie of the Year award would require him to keep producing, obviously, but also for each of the top three to regress a bit.
3. MarShon Brooks, New Jersey
The 25th pick in the draft, Brooks has wowed with his shot-creating skills. Unexpectedly, he's also been fairly efficient, which was a problem for him in college.
Brooks has become the Nets' go-to scorer by default, averaging a team-best 21.7 points per 40 minutes for the league's 23rd-ranked offensive team. This isn't just a guy putting up numbers on a bad team, either; Brooks' 55.7 TS% is in the top third of all shooting guards, and he's been a major plus on the boards. While he can suffer from tunnel vision offensively, and it remains to be seen if he can continue shooting this accurately, he's a major steal if he plays anywhere remotely this well.
Brooks unexpectedly leads all rookies in estimated wins added, although it's a close three-way race. Two factors will hurt him, however, in the Rookie of the Year race. First, his team -- the fact that New Jersey gets hammered every game will weigh negatively on him since he'll be seen as just a gunner. Second, however, is the hype factor -- the two point guards ahead of him are simply generating more highlights, and that can be tough to overcome.
2. Ricky Rubio, Minnesota
The only question about Rubio was his shooting, but this one uncertainty loomed over everything. Statistically, his shooting percentages in Europe and international play were so impossibly bad that it seemed inconceivable he would convert at an acceptable rate in the NBA.
Apparently, he got better. Either that, or these first 10 games have been a fluke of biblical proportions. Rubio has made 8 of his 17 3-point attempts and nearly half his 2s; as a result, a player who projected to shoot in the low 30s instead has one of the best TS% marks at his position. Rubio doesn't need to shoot like John Stockton to have value; he's so good in other areas that he just needs to be a non-awful shooter to make a major impact on the game.
So far he's doing it, and in every other respect he's something of a Spanish Jason Kidd -- Rubio averages 10.9 assists and 5.4 boards per 40 minutes, plays exemplary defense, and has the size and moxie to defend most 2s. Yes, the Wolves are only 3-7, but it's a vastly more competitive 3-7 than the misery of last season, and for the first time in eons this franchise seems headed in the right direction. Ricky is a major reason.
Because of the hype surrounding his entry and the spectacle of his passing skill, Rubio will have a major advantage in the Rookie of the Year voting. However, ultimately production is likely to win out. It's reasonable to expect Rubio's shooting numbers to regress a bit, even if they don't fall all the way back to the horrors of his past two seasons in Spain, and one player in particular should have the edge in both playing time and productivity.
1. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland
Irving wasn't exactly a risk-free No. 1 pick given that he'd played only 11 games as a collegian, but among rookies with more than 100 minutes he's first in PER and has the Cavs (4-5) unexpectedly pondering playoff contention in a soft Eastern Conference.
It probably helps that Irving's coach, Byron Scott, coached another pretty good rookie point guard, Chris Paul, when Scott ran the Hornets. As with that team, Irving has a lot of freedom to operate and it shows in his usage rate, which is the highest of any rookie.
But he is making good decisions for the most part -- aside from his bizarre befuddlement by the defensive might of the Toronto Raptors -- and is coming off back-to-back 20-point games in which he made more than half his shots. Irving has played more as a scorer than as a distributor thus far and, like virtually every rookie point guard, has suffered at times from the plague of turnovers. Nonetheless, he's been the best player in this class so far, and the amazing part is that he doesn't turn 20 'til March. With no Griffin around to make a mockery of the rookie race from Day 1, Irving is the favorite to be the best of several pretty good players.
1/12/2012 5:05 PM