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Nixluva's worst nightmare, but was have seen this movie before!

11:12AM ETEmailPrintCommentsBy Ian BegleyContinuing through Dec. 23, ESPNNewYork.com will run a series called "Christmas Countdown," examining a hot topic each day that surrounds "your New ... York ... Knicks!" as PA announcer Mike Walczewski says with slight pauses and strong punctuation.

Today's Hot Topic: Worst-case scenario

If you're wearing rose-colored glasses, please remove them before reading any further.

We won't be talking about what the Knicks have to do to make a run to the NBA title. Nor will we be discussing how much they can improve with Tyson Chandler in the paint.

Rather, we're examining the possibility that Amare Stoudemire can't keep up with the 66-game schedule; that the Knicks' back court can't handle the spotlight; that they show no improvement on the defensive end under assistant Mike Woodson.

You know, Doomsday stuff.

Why? Because there's a possibility any of the above could happen (and our editors asked us to).

So let's take a look at what could (reasonably) go wrong for the Knicks this season, and the ramifications of each failure.

STOUDEMIRE CAN'T HANDLE THE SCHEDULE: Stoudemire played in all 18 of the Knicks' games in March last season. In six of those 18, he played more than 40 minutes. At the end of the month, the nine-year vet called that manic March "maybe the hardest month I've played in my career."

The bad news for Stoudemire is this: the Knicks will play an average of 17 games per month this season.

How will Stoudemire's balky back and surgically repaired knees respond to the tough schedule?

The worst-case scenario here has Stoumire struggling through nagging injuries and missing time. If so, that would certainly hinder the Knicks on offense.

CARMELO ANTHONY AS A FACILITATOR: The Knicks have penciled Toney Douglas in as their starting point guard. But Mike D'Antoni has said that Carmelo Anthony will get an opportunity to facilitate the offense, much like Larry Bird did in Boston.

Here's the problem with that: what if Anthony facilitates the offense only for himself, freezing out other teammates?

Anthony showed last season (and throughout his career) that he stops the ball on offense. So relying on him to keep teammates involved may be a dicey proposition -- particularly if Stoudemire doesn't get as many touches as he's accustomed to.

Remember, Stoudemire's scoring averaged dipped about three points after Anthony came to New York last season.

The worst-case scenario here has Anthony and Stoudemire sniping at one another over who's taking more shots and the Knicks suffering as a result.

DEFENSE DOESN'T IMPROVE: The Knicks' defense -- which was downright offensive at times last season -- should improve with Chandler's presence in the paint.

Woodson was brought in as an assistant coach to help teach strengthen the Knicks on the defensive end. But what if he can't get through to any Knicks not named Chandler? What if Anthony continues to play defense on selective possessions? What if Stoudemire's reluctance to play hard-nosed 'D' when he's in foul trouble still burns the Knicks?

The worst-case scenario here has the Knicks finishing with the seventh or eighth seed in the East and getting swept by Miami or Chicago in the first round. This would lead to D'Antoni not being asked back for next season. For some of you, of course, that wouldn't be a bad thing at all.

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Worst case scenario that I could see playing out is Stat goes down for the season, either with the back or his knee, and we're stuck with Melo having to play Bernard King with a really questionable cast of fillers. Defense is better, but Melo still plays half the time (on offense). Chandler hangs on all year, helps on the boards and with paint defense, but with minutes limited by fouls (since he's the only one playing defense).

And we scrap by playing 400 ball, with maybe a shot at the 8th seed, but missing it by that much!

nixluva wrote:Ian is a good guy and I don't think he really believes these things will happen. The knicks weren't anywhere close to this balanced size wise and I think the least likely thing is that they won't defend. So long as they do then everything else will fall in line.

Point 1 (Amare injury): Probability unclear
Point 2 (Melo bad as a point forward): Based on his 8-year career as an inefficient ball-stopper, I'd have to say the probability is high.
Point 3 (defense unimproved): As long as Chandler is healthy, I'd rate the probability as low.

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:Ian is a good guy and I don't think he really believes these things will happen. The knicks weren't anywhere close to this balanced size wise and I think the least likely thing is that they won't defend. So long as they do then everything else will fall in line.

Point 1 (Amare injury): Probability unclear
Point 2 (Melo bad as a point forward): Based on his 8-year career as an inefficient ball-stopper, I'd have to say the probability is high.
Point 3 (defense unimproved): As long as Chandler is healthy, I'd rate the probability as low.

STAT played 82 in his last year in PHX, plus playoffs. Last year he took on an extremely high workload. He clearly broke down under the strain. the simple solution was to bring in help and to limit his playing time. Discounting freak injury that can happen to anyone at anytime, i'm not worried about this.

The defense improving is IMO the most likely thing to actually take place. So long as they defend, they will get more easy baskets and the offensive issues will be less of a concern. Also remember they were bumping into each other after the trade and STILL put up big offensive numbers. I doubt that the team will look anything like it did at that time, so i'm not that worried. The offense may not be the smoothest but they should be able to score well enough to win.

EnySpree wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

EnySpree wrote:Ever teams success has to do with health and luck....in other words **** this guy

We have a lower downside than many other teams labeled contenders though and a higher probability of one or more of the major concerns happening.

Everyone is hype about the clippers....Chris Paul has bad knees how quickly the experts forget. Blake griffin broke his leg deleting his real rookie season but everyone forgot about that.Caron butler had a season ending injury in Dallas. Chancey had a season ending injury for the Knicks. The clippers are cursed.

Let someone write a doomsday story about them and collect a check. Why do writers love to hate the Knicks?

eViL wrote:we lived 10 years of the worst case scenario. do we really have to read about it before it happens?

Nah mean!