So we talked with Coon about what is next for the players union — and part of that is decertification

“I think they should start the decertification process now, because it takes 45 days, and during that time they’ll have additional leverage. I don’t think there’s any reason NOT to get the ball rolling at this point…” Coon said in a conversation with ProBasketballTalk. “It’s a often-made mistake for people to assume the player’s don’t have leverage. A pending decertification vote increases that leverage.”

But that threat is only good if there is the will to back it up. Would the players really vote for decertification? Depends on when they vote, Coon said.

“The timing is crucial – if the vote is before the owners’ deadline to cancel the season (likely early January), then there may not be enough votes from players who understand that decertification likely clinches a year’s lost wages, and perhaps more, for an unknown process with an uncertain outcome. Many players would rather just take what’s on the table,” Coon said. “After the season is canceled, decertification would be much more likely.”

The players might be coaxed into a deal, but not one they think is unfair. The owners cannot just go for the rout, they have to offer some kind of olive branch to the players.

“Yes, I think (David) Stern needs to give them something so they can save face,” Coon said. “And as (Yahoo’s Adrian Wojnarowski) put it, I think they need to stop hurling alley-oops when they’re up by 30 with two minutes left in the fourth quarter, trying to push the margin to 40.”

Derek Fisher and Billy Hunter — the player and director at the head of the union — do not have to present Stern’s deal to the players union. But Coon adds that if they feel the majority of players — or even a significant minority — do want to settle that has to be taken into account.

For the record, Coon has always pretty much thought a deal would be reached just before the deadline to cancel the entire season. As happened in 1999. Which looks more likely right now than anything else.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/07/talking-decertification-union-moves-with-cba-expert-larry-coon/

Coon is smart. I think he's right about this. Players go through with this threat, owners will make some moves on their offer. They are so close to a deal, but players need SOME leverage to get the final few things decided in their favor, like the mid-level available to taxpaying teams, 51% BRI, etc. Only way to get those things is to start the process. There will be a 45-day window before the actual vote. I bet the owners get antsy on Day 41 or so and start really negotiating.

Painful for us as fans, but the right move for the players.

One thing they could do is shorten the terms of the deal. That way if it turns out to be bad for either side (owners still losing money or owners rolling in dough and the players feel stiffed and without enough freedom) they could go back to the table and tweak the deal in a few years. AS much as we'd hate to go through this again in a few years, part of what makes it so tough to sign off on a deal is that if it turns out you made a bad one you can't get out of it for a long time.

ItalianStallion wrote:One thing they could do is shorten the terms of the deal. That way if it turns out to be bad for either side (owners still losing money or owners rolling in dough and the players feel stiffed and without enough freedom) they could go back to the table and tweak the deal in a few years. AS much as we'd hate to go through this again in a few years, part of what makes it so tough to sign off on a deal is that if it turns out you made a bad one you can't get out of it for a long time.

Owners are free to offer short deals right now.

I'm sorry but I LOVE NBA action and wouldn't want fewer games. Maybe 72 but nit 50! 50 is too few! I'm surprised fans want less of the game they love to see played on it's highest level. I hate strike shortened seasons and I hope they can save a good deal of the season rather than play only 50 games.