BYU's Jimmer Fredette may not be the most talented player in the NBA draft. He's not a one-and-done blue-chip prospect. At 6-foot-3, 196 pounds, he lacks ideal height and athleticism. Some scouts aren't even sure what position he plays.Ask 15 different people about Fredette's NBA prospects and you'll get 15 different answers.
However, I get asked more questions about Fredette, on a day-to-day basis, than any player I've ever covered. Whether you love him or hate him, everyone wants to know whether his game translates to the NBA.
I've spent months speaking with NBA GMs and scouts about Fredette's future in the pros. Here's a handy FAQ that hopefully will sort through the issues concerning Jimmer.
As the college player of the year, why isn't Jimmer a surefire top-10 pick?
Most Naismith winners are indeed surefire top-10 picks. Since 1980, only three college players of the year -- Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick and Tyler Hansbrough -- fell past the first 10 picks.
And, at this point, Fredette figures to be the next one.
While there's an outside chance the Kings take him with the No. 7 pick, we currently project Jimmer to be selected No. 15 overall by the Indiana Pacers.
Why?
Jimmer has many of the same issues as Nelson, Redick and Hansbrough.
Coming out of Saint Joseph's in 2004, Nelson was considered undersized as a point guard and more of a combo guard. Fredette, too, is seen as a combo guard. While he has good size for a point guard, he's undersized if we project him as a 2.
Both Redick and Hansbrough lacked elite athletic ability and were seen as niche players at the next level. A number of scouts also question whether Fredette has the explosive athleticism to succeed in the pros. Fredette's lateral foot speed actually tested as one of the best at the NBA draft combine, but he's not much of a leaper.
Another area of concern is his defense. To be frank, not only was Fredette a bad defender at BYU, he rarely put forth any effort on the defensive end of the floor. If he can't guard college players, how is he going to guard guys in the pros?
Even his role at the next level is, at this point, undefined. Fredette was a volume shooter at BYU; he had the ball in his hands all the time and took a shot every 1.7 minutes. But in the NBA, Fredette is in store for a major adjustment. Whoever drafts him will ask him to do more than shoot the ball every possession. Can he make the adjustment?
With all of those concerns, why is he being looked at in the first round?
Jimmer may be the best scorer in the draft, and some of those skills will translate to the NBA.
For starters, he's a terrific shooter with deep, deep range. He's going to get a lot more open looks in the NBA than he did in college, and he rarely misses an open 3.
But he's got the chance to be more than just a 3-point shooter. Jimmer is also quick with the ball and can create his own shot. He's got a killer crossover move, gets great separation from his defender and has a quick release on his jumper.
It's rare to find players who can both shoot it from distance and create their own shot off the dribble. Jimmer should be able to do both in the NBA.
While there are some concerns about his ability to finish at the rim in the NBA, he's very creative in using the backboard. If he develops a floater, he'll be even more dangerous.
Fredette is also what NBA scouts call a "killer." He is hyper-competitive, plays with a great motor and is fearless in the clutch.
A number of teams have done psychological examinations on him and they've found that he measures off the charts when it comes to making decisions under intense pressure. Some players freeze up when the game is on the line. The game actually slows down for Fredette.
Fredette is also, by all accounts, a great kid. Teams have loved him in interviews and think he'd be a great locker-room guy.
In a draft with so few great prospects, Jimmer has the chance to be special. He may never reach his ceiling, but if he does, he could be great.
Why are so many observers skeptical about Jimmer?
NBA scouts might have concerns, but average fans seem to have even more. I think may onlookers see Fredette as the second coming of Adam Morrison.
But while the superficial comparisons stick, the two couldn't be any more different. Fredette is more athletic, has a better jump shot and can create his own shot. Morrison was a below-average athlete, had a shaky jumper and couldn't create his own shot.
I think the other issue is that NBA fans just don't see players in the league play the way Jimmer did at BYU. Even the most prolific scorers in the league don't have the green light Jimmer did in college, and few shooters are willing to let it fly regularly from 35 feet.
What position will he play in the NBA? Could he be another Steve Nash?
Fredette could be a combo guard or a point guard. If he's a combo guard, then comparisons to Steve Kerr and Ben Gordon make a lot of sense. If a team uses him this way, his primary role will be to come off the bench, energize the offense and hit some jump shots. Regardless of how a team projects him long-term, it's likely that most teams would use him this way earlier in his career.
But if he's going to have a career worthy of a top-10 pick, he's going to have to do more. Steve Nash will be the template to follow, and Stephen Curry wouldn't be a bad one, either.
Fredette At A Glance
Jimmer Fredette
Age:
22
From:
Glens Falls, N.Y.
Height:
6-foot-3
Weight:
196 pounds
Positives:
Amazing scorer. Very high basketball IQ. Tough, strong player. Can score from anywhere on the floor. Deep, deep range on his jumper. Terrific leader.
Negatives:
Not an explosive athlete. Indifferent defender. More scorer than distributor. Undersized if he's a 2.
• Full scouting report: Draft card
Nash was known primarily as a scorer when he was drafted 15th overall out of Santa Clara in 1996. Early on, the Suns played him off the ball and as a scorer off the bench. When he was traded to Dallas and took over the full-time point guard role, he averaged a little over five assists per game for the first two seasons. It took until his eighth season in the league (and his last with the Mavericks) for Nash to crack an eight-assist average. The Nash we all know as the great passer and two-time MVP wasn't born; he was made.
Curry was also a big-time scorer in his first two years at Davidson. During his junior year, he worked on running the point, in part to impress NBA scouts. However, there were still major questions about his position coming into the 2009 draft. After two stellar seasons for Golden State, he's an excellent scorer who also averages just under six assists per game.
Both in high school and at BYU, Jimmer has been primarily asked to score. But if you scout his games, you know he's a solid and sometimes creative passer. His best year passing the basketball was as a junior, when he averaged a 1.7-1 assist-turnover ratio and nearly five assists per game. Even his best numbers are pretty paltry for a point guard, as is his minus-0.2 pure point rating.
But there's hope. With a high basketball IQ and a tight handle, he can learn how to penetrate into the paint and then find the wide-open man -- much like Nash, he's going to have to hone that area of his game. Because he's such a threat to score, he should be able to draw the attention of defenses. His teammates at BYU could rarely finish when Fredette dropped them a dime, but in the NBA, the success rate should go way up.
It won't happen overnight, but there's sufficient evidence in the game film to suggest he can learn the position over time.
Does race play a role in how Fredette is perceived?
It often does when players are evaluated.
The question is, does it help or hurt him? I think it's a little of both.
It seems clear that Fredette, to some fans, is the proverbial great white hope -- the next in line in the search for another Larry Bird-type star. It's hard to believe Jimmer would have generated this much interest had he been black. Just ask Kemba Walker, who put together a similarly impressive college season, and won a national title, but hasn't gotten nearly the attention or adoration that Fredette has.
But you could make the argument that it hurts him as well. Many are skeptical about the pro prospects of white players, especially perimeter players. Fredette has struggled to shake off the stereotypes about a white player's athletic ability (or lack thereof), despite the fact that he tested as a very good athlete at the Chicago combine. If not for the doubts about his athleticism, his draft stock would arguably be higher based on his college performance in the past two seasons.
Why wouldn't the Utah Jazz draft the home-state hero?
They might. The Jazz have scouted Fredette as carefully as any player in the draft. They like him. And if they take a big man like Enes Kanter with the No. 3 pick, they could very well take Fredette with the No. 12 pick.
But they might not, either. If they don't, you can factor in two reasons: need and pressure.
The Jazz may feel that they need to address other areas in the draft. While it does seem like Fredette would be a good fit behind Devin Harris next season, Utah also needs to add size to its front line and may have to replace impending free agent Andrei Kirilenko.
There's also a legitimate concern about how Fredette will handle the pressure of playing in Utah. He's a rock star there, and expectations would quickly blossom. Would Fredette wilt under the pressure? He seemed to handle everything in stride at BYU, but the NBA is a much bigger stage.
Which team is the best fit for Jimmer?
I think the Phoenix Suns may be the best fit. Ideally, he would get a year to work with Nash, which could really speed up his development.
The up-tempo offense in Phoenix is also perfect for Fredette's style. And let's face it -- Alvin Gentry is used to his point guard not lighting up the NBA on the defensive end.
Source: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=JimmerFAQ-110622
