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Down 2 w/ the ball and clock winding down -- look for a 2 or 3?
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bernard
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4/18/2011  1:31 PM
I prefer shooting the 3, if it's a decent look, unless there's a wide open lay-up available. Just a better % play, imo. I'm not sure what the overall percentages say, but I'd guess the average on a 2 pointer would be around 50% and on a 3 around 33% in that situation. Simple math: if you assume you're taking the last shot and you have a 50/50 chance of winning in OT:
33% on the 3 > 50% (on a 2 to tie) X 50% (on winning in OT) = 25%.

All this is by way of saying I didn't mind Carmello's last shot selection. He was right where he likes to be at the right wing. He got his rhythm with a couple of dribbles. Anyone watching the Knicks play the last couple of weeks knows he drains that shot with regularity. Just didn't fall last night.
AUTOADVERT
orangeblobman
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Nauru
4/18/2011  1:32 PM
you go for two unless you have open 3.

you tie and grind.

WE AIN'T NOWHERE WITH THIS BUM CHOKER IN CARMELO. GIVE ME STARKS'S 2-21 ANY DAY OVER THIS LACKLUSTER CLUSTEREFF.
FistOfOakley
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4/18/2011  1:37 PM
billups was lost for the game.... melo had 5 fouls. the celtics were at home. it was a half decent look at 3 with time winding down. i don't think he would have had time for a good look at 15. if it was a contested 20 fter vs a contested 3 i would take the 3 there.
orangeblobman
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Nauru
4/18/2011  1:38 PM
yea, you go for three the way melo did, i agree with decision.

but general question, you go for two.

WE AIN'T NOWHERE WITH THIS BUM CHOKER IN CARMELO. GIVE ME STARKS'S 2-21 ANY DAY OVER THIS LACKLUSTER CLUSTEREFF.
bernard
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4/18/2011  1:38 PM
Even if the %'s say otherwise? Tempting to do everything you can to stay in the game, but I just don't think that's the % play.

orangeblobman wrote:you go for two unless you have open 3.

you tie and grind.
JrZyHuStLa
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4/18/2011  2:05 PM
D'antoni wanted a 3.
Nalod
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4/18/2011  2:09 PM

WIth no time outs on the road with your starting pt out you go for the win unless they are giving you a layup.

It was a frantic finish.

Melo is the finisher. Let him finish.

And lets be real, for this team to ever reach high levels you have to go thru what they went thru last nite.

Playoff experience is painful.
orangeblobman
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Nauru
4/18/2011  2:54 PM
Nalod wrote:
WIth no time outs on the road with your starting pt out you go for the win unless they are giving you a layup.

It was a frantic finish.

Melo is the finisher. Let him finish.

And lets be real, for this team to ever reach high levels you have to go thru what they went thru last nite.

Playoff experience is painful.

nalod, you are master of spin, i envy this ability.

no, i don't, really.

but i appreciate it.

some of us fatalistic slavs choose reality.

WE AIN'T NOWHERE WITH THIS BUM CHOKER IN CARMELO. GIVE ME STARKS'S 2-21 ANY DAY OVER THIS LACKLUSTER CLUSTEREFF.
VDesai
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4/18/2011  3:03 PM
Most of the time you should go for the 2. On the road, I might be more apt to look for the 3. Same kind of thing as in football. Do you tie the game or try to take the lead?
bernard
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4/18/2011  5:01 PM
No one's really addressing the math. Intuitively, you want to go for the tie; I see that. But I don't think it adds up (unless my assumptions are wrong -- that you make 1/3 of late game 3's and 1/2 of late game 2's).

Even if you like your chances in OT -- say you think you have a 60% chance of winning in OT, you're still better taking the 3 than the 2.

33% on the 3 pt shot to win is better than 50% on the 2 to tie x 60% on the OT chances.
Childs2Dudley
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4/18/2011  5:04 PM
Are we talking about a wide open 3 or a double teamed contested three-point heave that Carmelo took with 8 seconds left to end the game?
"Our attitude toward life determines life's attitude towards us." - Earl Nightingale
holfresh
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4/18/2011  5:15 PM
It depends on the look...Wide open look at what you want, 2 or 3...I think if Melo went to the hole immediately the D might have been off balance...I just think guys are too comfortable with the three as the first option...
Moonangie
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4/18/2011  5:26 PM
He took the available shot given the circumstances. It rimmed out off the front, which while a bummer, doesn't mean anything was wrong with the shot selection. The play was a bit chaotic, since Fishlips almost called a non-existent time out before Toney demanded the ball, clock ticking down, made an awkward pass to Melo on the wing, and Melo did what he does: Took the first shot he felt was open. Yes, he had time to look inside, but he was feeling it and he's a rhythm shooter from three point land. He missed, Ray hit his clincher...dems da breaks.

Knicks looked very good last night and clearly have enough to beat the Celtics. Can't wait until tomorrow.
Childs2Dudley
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4/18/2011  5:35 PM
Moonangie wrote:He took the available shot given the circumstances. It rimmed out off the front, which while a bummer, doesn't mean anything was wrong with the shot selection. The play was a bit chaotic, since Fishlips almost called a non-existent time out before Toney demanded the ball, clock ticking down, made an awkward pass to Melo on the wing, and Melo did what he does: Took the first shot he felt was open. Yes, he had time to look inside, but he was feeling it and he's a rhythm shooter from three point land. He missed, Ray hit his clincher...dems da breaks.

Knicks looked very good last night and clearly have enough to beat the Celtics. Can't wait until tomorrow.

What? There is 8 seconds left and you thought that was the best available shot? How was that "given to him" anyway? He was double teamed and launched a 3. It was an awful shot, plain and simple.

"Our attitude toward life determines life's attitude towards us." - Earl Nightingale
bernard
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4/18/2011  5:43 PM
holfresh wrote:It depends on the look...Wide open look at what you want, 2 or 3...I think if Melo went to the hole immediately the D might have been off balance...I just think guys are too comfortable with the three as the first option...

I'm assuming the 2 and 3 are equally contested/open. Defense is usually playing you straight up in this situation as they can't afford to give up anything. It's not like when you're down 3 and the defense switches all picks to avoid giving up an open 3. But it's not like if you're down 1 and the defense would pretty happily give up a 3.
Juice
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4/18/2011  5:47 PM    LAST EDITED: 4/18/2011  5:48 PM
There's no rule or even a preference of what you should do...

Take for instance


Do I want to shoot a 3 if my team has been bricking 3s all game but shooting well from 2s....NO!

Do I want to shoot a 3 against a team who defends the 3pt shot well but is vulnerable in the paint....NO

Do I want to shoot a 3 against a team who switches everything on the perimeter....NO!

Do I want to shoot a 3 if I have a poor rebounding team on the floor....NO!

Do I want to shoot a 3 if I have a team who leads the league in drawing fouls...Probably NOT!

Do I want to shoot a 3 if I have excellent scorers 15ft and in....Probably NOT!


Do I want to shoot a 3 if I have a great defensive team and great 3pt shooting....MAYBE!

Do I want to shoot a 3 if I'm wide open with enough time to take a dump at center court....I GUESS!
Olbrannon
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4/18/2011  5:49 PM
Meh...I'm for putting the ball in Stat's hands at that point he hadn't been stopped without O'Neal/KG cheating all night.

I don't mind a desperation last second shot but he had more choices than to try to get a shot off against the double.

Bill Simmons on Tyreke Evans "The prototypical 0-guard: Someone who handles the ball all the time, looks for his own shot, gets to the rim at will and operates best if his teammates spread the floor to watch him."
Juice
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4/18/2011  5:51 PM
Olbrannon wrote:Meh...I'm for putting the ball in Stat's hands at that point he hadn't been stopped without O'Neal/KG cheating all night.

I don't mind a desperation last second shot but he had more choices than to try to get a shot off against the double.

Better question

Before coming out of a time out if we knew Melo was going to chuck a 26ftr lazy shot would fans have been cool with it?
Olbrannon
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4/18/2011  6:01 PM
Juice wrote:
Olbrannon wrote:Meh...I'm for putting the ball in Stat's hands at that point he hadn't been stopped without O'Neal/KG cheating all night.

I don't mind a desperation last second shot but he had more choices than to try to get a shot off against the double.

Better question

Before coming out of a time out if we knew Melo was going to chuck a 26ftr lazy shot would fans have been cool with it?

Why go for a contested shot against a double? My answer would be no. I cannot really speak for John Q If the 3 is open yeah you take it. If you are playing against a double with a team mate who just showed you seconds ago he wasn't scared and a guy who has hit the 6 of the last 7 shot attempts he took ...you pass out of the double with that much time.

Bill Simmons on Tyreke Evans "The prototypical 0-guard: Someone who handles the ball all the time, looks for his own shot, gets to the rim at will and operates best if his teammates spread the floor to watch him."
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Down 2 w/ the ball and clock winding down -- look for a 2 or 3?
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