Flight Simulator
"In one thousand simulations of the rest of the season, the Knicks qualified for the playoffs every time. To put it another way, there is probably a less than one-in-1,000 chance that the Knicks will miss the playoffs based on the current standings and their remaining schedule.
While making the playoffs is almost a foregone conclusion for the Knicks, advancing beyond the first round presents a much tougher challenge: the Knicks are on a collision course to face one of the top three teams in the East — the Chicago Bulls, the Boston Celtics or the Miami Heat.But the Knicks have played surprisingly well against those teams, putting up a record of 4-5 with a point differential of minus-1.8 points per game. The Celtics have given the Knicks the most trouble, handing them three of those losses, but all of the games were close. The first two losses were by a total of 6 points, and in Monday’s loss the Knicks held a 14-point lead at the half and a 6-point lead heading into the fourth quarter.
That being said, a first-round series win over any of these teams would be a huge upset. Going back to the simulation results, the chances of this happening are around 15 percent, with the most likely result being a series loss by the Knicks in five games.
With seven losses in eight games, it is easy to understand why some of the Knicks’ faithful have lost hope. But a comfortable lead in the playoff standings coupled with an easy schedule the rest of the way will almost certainly land the Knicks in the playoffs. And although it’s likely to be a brief stay, that should be considered progress for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2004."
- Justin Kubatko, NYT