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Interesting take from Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight
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BasketballJones
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2/22/2011  12:44 PM    LAST EDITED: 2/22/2011  12:51 PM
The Five Thirty Eight blog usually covers polls and elections, but today Nate Silver has an interesting take on the trade from a statistical/mathematical perspective. He may be saying what some are feeling on a gut-level about this trade:

Deal for Anthony May Limit Knicks’ Upside

What might the Knicks have done differently? One thing might have been to insist that the Nuggets’ center, Nene, was among the bounty of players they were receiving from Denver. A starting five of Billups, Fields, Anthony, Stoudemire and Nene could well be a 60-win team, even with almost no depth.

No, the Nuggets might not have made the trade. But no one was forcing the Knicks to make their deal either. And the trade that they did make was extravagant from the perspective of opportunity cost.

https:// It's not so hard.
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DrAlphaeus
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2/22/2011  12:59 PM
Thanks Jonesy, great link.

Someone else has smartly used words and numbers to objectively express my ennui! Perhaps I can let this stupidness go for long enough to try to create some value in my OWN life! Heh.

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Paladin55
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2/22/2011  1:00 PM    LAST EDITED: 2/22/2011  1:02 PM
BasketballJones wrote:The Five Thirty Eight blog usually covers polls and elections, but today Nate Silver has an interesting take on the trade from a statistical/mathematical perspective. He may be saying what some are feeling on a gut-level about this trade:

Deal for Anthony May Limit Knicks’ Upside

What might the Knicks have done differently? One thing might have been to insist that the Nuggets’ center, Nene, was among the bounty of players they were receiving from Denver. A starting five of Billups, Fields, Anthony, Stoudemire and Nene could well be a 60-win team, even with almost no depth.

No, the Nuggets might not have made the trade. But no one was forcing the Knicks to make their deal either. And the trade that they did make was extravagant from the perspective of opportunity cost.

Silver is brilliant- his original website was required daily reading for me in the months leading up to the 2008 election, and he was scarily close to in his predictions to the actual outcome of the election.

This is an article folks should look at, for it provides evidence for many of predictions people like myself have made about where this team will go in the future.

A sobering article, IMO, but not one which will wake up the starpuched among us.

No man is happy without a delusion of some kind. Delusions are as necessary to our happiness as realities- C.N. Bovee
GustavBahler
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2/22/2011  1:01 PM
If this article shows anything its that the Knicks need an adult to stay on and tackle these issues. Miami got some vets to take less to play with their big 3, Melo and Stat should try to do the same and help Walsh recruit players.
misterearl
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2/22/2011  1:02 PM
"The trade is being billed as a high-risk move. But in some ways it is just the opposite, seeming to lock the Knicks in to roughly 50 wins over the next handful of seasons — not a lot more, not a lot less — under most of the more realistic scenarios."

(ie. the Atlanta Hawks)

"What might the Knicks have done differently? One thing might have been to insist that the Nuggets’ center, Nene, was among the bounty of players they were receiving from Denver. A starting five of Billups, Fields, Anthony, Stoudemire and Nene could well be a 60-win team, even with almost no depth."

Without a center the Knicks are vulnerable to mismatches, and injuries which result from collisions with larger players

"No, the Nuggets might not have made the trade. But no one was forcing the Knicks to make their deal either. And the trade that they did make was extravagant from the perspective of opportunity cost."

No one, that is, except Satan.

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Paladin55
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2/22/2011  1:04 PM
GustavBahler wrote:If this article shows anything its that the Knicks need an adult to stay on and tackle these issues. Miami got some vets to take less to play with their big 3, Melo and Stat should try to do the same and help Walsh recruit players.

Yeah, Melo will have to recruit a third star by telling him he should not be greedy like he (Melo) was, and should take a salary cut to play with Amare and himself.

No man is happy without a delusion of some kind. Delusions are as necessary to our happiness as realities- C.N. Bovee
GustavBahler
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2/22/2011  1:07 PM
Paladin55 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:If this article shows anything its that the Knicks need an adult to stay on and tackle these issues. Miami got some vets to take less to play with their big 3, Melo and Stat should try to do the same and help Walsh recruit players.

Yeah, Melo will have to recruit a third star by telling him he should not be greedy like he (Melo) was, and should take a salary cut to play with Amare and himself.

Who said anything about a star? I said vets like the Heat acquired. Past their prime but still able to contribute and help spread the floor. Too early to be talking about a third star.
Knickoftime
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2/22/2011  1:08 PM
I think the article is solid analysis. I too am a fan of Silver's (though he was a deer in headlights on Baseball Tonight) and genuinely agree with most of his findings.

However, I think predicting future possible transactions is where his brand of analysis falls short. Suggesting the KNicks try to get Denver to throw Nene into the deal is really not what he does best and comes off as a fairly dumb suggestion.

I agree, the Knicks are now the Hawks, which btw, is better than the KNicks were yesterday.

I just think there are more avenues to alter your roster (for good AND bad, mind you) that Silver's number-crunching makes apparent.
martin
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2/22/2011  1:15 PM
Can someone give me 2 min background on both Silver and Five Thirty Eight?
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Paladin55
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2/22/2011  1:19 PM
GustavBahler wrote:
Paladin55 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:If this article shows anything its that the Knicks need an adult to stay on and tackle these issues. Miami got some vets to take less to play with their big 3, Melo and Stat should try to do the same and help Walsh recruit players.

Yeah, Melo will have to recruit a third star by telling him he should not be greedy like he (Melo) was, and should take a salary cut to play with Amare and himself.

Who said anything about a star? I said vets like the Heat acquired. Past their prime but still able to contribute and help spread the floor. Too early to be talking about a third star.


Geez, I thought we were already looking toward Williams or Paul.

We may not be able to offer anyone of value anything until the dust of the new CBA settles and we know what we can or cannot afford cap-wise.

You will need AT LEAST a 2nd tier PG after next season, and a very good defensive oriented center. You may also have to give up Fields to get some of these things, and will therefore need a SG who can also play D, as well as shoot from distance.

Everything will be determined by the fact that our two stars are defensively challenged and they basically have the same game.

No man is happy without a delusion of some kind. Delusions are as necessary to our happiness as realities- C.N. Bovee
BasketballJones
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2/22/2011  1:20 PM
martin wrote:Can someone give me 2 min background on both Silver and Five Thirty Eight?

I'm most familiar with him from the 2004, 2008 & 2010 elections. He aggregates and analyzes polls and comes up with the probability of one candidate or another winning a given contest.

https:// It's not so hard.
Knickoftime
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2/22/2011  1:23 PM
BasketballJones wrote:I'm most familiar with him from the 2004, 2008 & 2010 elections. He aggregates and analyzes polls and comes up with the probability of one candidate or another winning a given contest.

Very accurately, mind you.

He also does sports analysis. Baseball Tonight brought in him to do studio analysis at least one, but it may have only been once because it was like school play time. He's not good on camera.

But he's solid as they come if you believe in statistical analysis.
Paladin55
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2/22/2011  1:24 PM
martin wrote:Can someone give me 2 min background on both Silver and Five Thirty Eight?

A fairly straightforward Wikipedia bio.

I did not know of him until hearing him on NPR prior to the 2008 election. He used to have his own site.

Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, psephologist, and writer. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,[2] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[3]

In 2007 Silver began to publish analyses and predictions related to the 2008 United States presidential election under the pseudonym "Poblano." At first this work appeared on the political blog Daily Kos, but in March 2008 Silver established his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com. By summer of that year, after he revealed his identity to his readers, he began to appear as an electoral and political analyst in national print, online, and cable news media.

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions – he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states – won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 0.9%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.

In April 2009 he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by TIME Magazine.[4]
In June 2010 it was announced that Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog would soon begin to be published online by the New York Times.[5][6] The newly renamed blog, FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus,[7] first appeared in the New York Times on August 25, 2010.

No man is happy without a delusion of some kind. Delusions are as necessary to our happiness as realities- C.N. Bovee
GustavBahler
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2/22/2011  1:29 PM
Paladin55 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
Paladin55 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:If this article shows anything its that the Knicks need an adult to stay on and tackle these issues. Miami got some vets to take less to play with their big 3, Melo and Stat should try to do the same and help Walsh recruit players.

Yeah, Melo will have to recruit a third star by telling him he should not be greedy like he (Melo) was, and should take a salary cut to play with Amare and himself.

Who said anything about a star? I said vets like the Heat acquired. Past their prime but still able to contribute and help spread the floor. Too early to be talking about a third star.


Geez, I thought we were already looking toward Williams or Paul.

We may not be able to offer anyone of value anything until the dust of the new CBA settles and we know what we can or cannot afford cap-wise.

You will need AT LEAST a 2nd tier PG after next season, and a very good defensive oriented center. You may also have to give up Fields to get some of these things, and will therefore need a SG who can also play D, as well as shoot from distance.

Everything will be determined by the fact that our two stars are defensively challenged and they basically have the same game.

Melo can operate from further away from the bucket. He can also put the ball on the floor better than Stat and pass better. This is an upgrade more than it is a duplication. I agree that other needs have to be addressed which is why I suggested that Melo and Stat help recruit vets.
Paladin55
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2/22/2011  1:41 PM    LAST EDITED: 2/22/2011  1:42 PM
GustavBahler wrote:
Paladin55 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
Paladin55 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:If this article shows anything its that the Knicks need an adult to stay on and tackle these issues. Miami got some vets to take less to play with their big 3, Melo and Stat should try to do the same and help Walsh recruit players.

Yeah, Melo will have to recruit a third star by telling him he should not be greedy like he (Melo) was, and should take a salary cut to play with Amare and himself.

Who said anything about a star? I said vets like the Heat acquired. Past their prime but still able to contribute and help spread the floor. Too early to be talking about a third star.


Geez, I thought we were already looking toward Williams or Paul.

We may not be able to offer anyone of value anything until the dust of the new CBA settles and we know what we can or cannot afford cap-wise.

You will need AT LEAST a 2nd tier PG after next season, and a very good defensive oriented center. You may also have to give up Fields to get some of these things, and will therefore need a SG who can also play D, as well as shoot from distance.

Everything will be determined by the fact that our two stars are defensively challenged and they basically have the same game.

Melo can operate from further away from the bucket. He can also put the ball on the floor better than Stat and pass better. This is an upgrade more than it is a duplication. I agree that other needs have to be addressed which is why I suggested that Melo and Stat help recruit vets.


I don't think he will be as bullheaded as Amare has been sometimes, and he has had more experience shooting 3's, but Anthony's impact is diminished considerably if you have him operating too far beyond midrange, and his rebounding ability will be diminished as he moves further from the basket.

Essentially, he, like Amare, is a midrange isolation player, and the McAdoo/Haywood (he was not the same player he once was when we had him though) comparison is not that far off, unfortunately, and they were both better rebounders than the two guys we have now.

The problem is that the defensive deficiencies of Amare and Melo mean that the other players we look at to put along side of them have to be defensive stalwarts- we can't afford to take on a defensively challenged center, PG, or whatever.

No man is happy without a delusion of some kind. Delusions are as necessary to our happiness as realities- C.N. Bovee
JrZyHuStLa
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2/22/2011  1:48 PM
Politicans should stay away from analyzing sports.
Paladin55
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2/22/2011  1:53 PM
JrZyHuStLa wrote:Politicans should stay away from analyzing sports.

Don't think he's a politician... He's a statistician. Big difference.

The former has reached his conclusions and uses statistics to manipulate people.

The latter only reaches his (her) conclusions after a study of the statistics.

Big difference.

No man is happy without a delusion of some kind. Delusions are as necessary to our happiness as realities- C.N. Bovee
GustavBahler
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2/22/2011  2:01 PM    LAST EDITED: 2/22/2011  2:10 PM
Paladin55 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
Paladin55 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:
Paladin55 wrote:
GustavBahler wrote:If this article shows anything its that the Knicks need an adult to stay on and tackle these issues. Miami got some vets to take less to play with their big 3, Melo and Stat should try to do the same and help Walsh recruit players.

Yeah, Melo will have to recruit a third star by telling him he should not be greedy like he (Melo) was, and should take a salary cut to play with Amare and himself.

Who said anything about a star? I said vets like the Heat acquired. Past their prime but still able to contribute and help spread the floor. Too early to be talking about a third star.


Geez, I thought we were already looking toward Williams or Paul.

We may not be able to offer anyone of value anything until the dust of the new CBA settles and we know what we can or cannot afford cap-wise.

You will need AT LEAST a 2nd tier PG after next season, and a very good defensive oriented center. You may also have to give up Fields to get some of these things, and will therefore need a SG who can also play D, as well as shoot from distance.

Everything will be determined by the fact that our two stars are defensively challenged and they basically have the same game.

Melo can operate from further away from the bucket. He can also put the ball on the floor better than Stat and pass better. This is an upgrade more than it is a duplication. I agree that other needs have to be addressed which is why I suggested that Melo and Stat help recruit vets.


I don't think he will be as bullheaded as Amare has been sometimes, and he has had more experience shooting 3's, but Anthony's impact is diminished considerably if you have him operating too far beyond midrange, and his rebounding ability will be diminished as he moves further from the basket.

Essentially, he, like Amare, is a midrange isolation player, and the McAdoo/Haywood (he was not the same player he once was when we had him though) comparison is not that far off, unfortunately, and they were both better rebounders than the two guys we have now.

The problem is that the defensive deficiencies of Amare and Melo mean that the other players we look at to put along side of them have to be defensive stalwarts- we can't afford to take on a defensively challenged center, PG, or whatever.

When you call Melo that it makes it sound like that's all there is to his game. He can hit the three or move in and take his man off the dribble, that's range as far as I'm concerned. He can hurt you from anywhere. Melo is a good rebounder for his position, Stat is the one who needs to work on his rebounding.

I agree about adding better defenders, they were going to have to the way the knicks were giving up points, and its the only way to go deep in the playoffs. We have addressed a major problem with our offense, we have a player who can't be shut down the way almost every other player in this league can. Our defense was already among the worst in the league so its not like we traded it away.

I agree with your recommendations, its hopefully what Walsh is working on, this isn't over, we shouldn't treat this deal like it will be the only move that will be made to improve this team, hopefully by Walsh.
misterearl
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2/22/2011  2:06 PM
Palladin - your McAdoo/ Haywood comparison is sobering. And accurate. Suddenly, the three point range of Landry Fields becomes essential to spread the court. Billups is decent from long range but the prospect of our lead guard hoisting three brings back memories of Charlie Ward. Carmelo is not the person to shoot from long range as he only makes one of three attempts.

Whatever work is done on the defensive end must be embraced for 48 minutes. Turiaf, alone in the middle, is good for about half of those minutes.

once a knick always a knick
Paladin55
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2/22/2011  2:19 PM
misterearl wrote:Palladin - your McAdoo/ Haywood comparison is sobering. And accurate. Suddenly, the three point range of Landry Fields becomes essential to spread the court. Billups is decent from long range but the prospect of our lead guard hoisting three brings back memories of Charlie Ward. Carmelo is not the person to shoot from long range as he only makes one of three attempts.

Whatever work is done on the defensive end must be embraced for 48 minutes. Turiaf, alone in the middle, is good for about half of those minutes.


I, for one, think that Fields is up to it, but it is a lot to ask of him at this stage in his career. I actually like Billups a lot, but wish he were 5 years younger, and yes, he will probably be asked to shoot more 3s.

I don't think that this is a D'Antoni team, and doubt if he will be around after this year.

No man is happy without a delusion of some kind. Delusions are as necessary to our happiness as realities- C.N. Bovee
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Interesting take from Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight
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