martin wrote:

Vmart wrote:It will be a miracle if he becomes a Knick. He is going to stay put, then opt out and join another team or stay put.

huh? have you been paying attention?

Hence the stay put and sign the extension. I believe there will be a change of heart where Knicks will not be the destination.

OasisBU wrote:

martin wrote:

Vmart wrote:It will be a miracle if he becomes a Knick. He is going to stay put, then opt out and join another team or stay put.

huh? have you been paying attention?

Martin - whats your vote?

Traded, but really this is very hard to pinpoint because Denver has a significant say-so in it and it seems to me that Denver is awkwardly muddling their way through negotiations like 2 virgins in the back seat after their first school dance - lots of starts and stops and hot panting but no one has a clue what to do.

Here is what I see:

If all Carmelo wanted was the contract extension, he could have signed with Denver by now. Done and no worries, but obviously that's not all he wants. There is a possibility that he wants to stay in Denver but also wants to force the team to upgrade before he signs, but there has not been one hint of that. So it's something else.

If all Carmelo wanted was NY area team and contract extension, he could have done trade and extend with Jersey by now. So he either does not want New Jersey or he knows enough to not want to go to a depleted team.

So that really leaves only NY. I guess you could make an argument for a rental or Houston-type team (lots of assets), but IMHO the chances for that are slim to none. Hey, Dallas will surely give up a second rounder for Melo, but who wouldn't, and why would Denver settle for that? And what does Melo have to look forward to on a team like Houston? Looking out there, there isn't a team that has a secondary player that Melo would like to play with who also has the market to match (from what we have all heard, big marketplace holds value for Melo and LaLa).

NY could have Melo today if they included everything under the sun. Is Donnie, home in NY for his last big legacy-making tenure as GM, really that dumb as to trade Melo and lock himself into a 50 win team that wouldn't come close to doing anything past the second round? Not likely. Dude has been around the block, in fact, he was there when the block was being made and knows enough to not go ahead with a deal like this. And if he did, I think we all should know that Dolan/CAA had their fingerprints on all of this and Donnie will exit stage left immediately.

Will Denver come to their senses? This is the linchpin decision point for me. Denver has zero motivation to move Melo before Feb 24, so it will come to last minute. In fact, it behooves Denver to wait longer while the Knicks flounder so that the pressure from media, CAA heats in the hopes of moving Donnie/Dolan enough to make a bad deal for NY (or a more favorable one for Denver).

Stupidly, Dolan could solve all ills for NY but he is too stupid to do so: Announce that he loves Donnie and give him a 2-3 year extension and tell everyone that he has heard the plan and likes it. Sphincters clenching within Denver's management office would match that only with those in CAA's offices. This would mean that Donnie could be as patient as he wanted to be without pressure from his management to make a move that would do more long term damage than not: i.e. wait for Melo in offseason.

martin wrote:

OasisBU wrote:

martin wrote:

Vmart wrote:It will be a miracle if he becomes a Knick. He is going to stay put, then opt out and join another team or stay put.

huh? have you been paying attention?

Martin - whats your vote?

Traded, but really this is very hard to pinpoint because Denver has a significant say-so in it and it seems to me that Denver is awkwardly muddling their way through negotiations like 2 virgins in the back seat after their first school dance - lots of starts and stops and hot panting but no one has a clue what to do.

Here is what I see:

If all Carmelo wanted was the contract extension, he could have signed with Denver by now. Done and no worries, but obviously that's not all he wants. There is a possibility that he wants to stay in Denver but also wants to force the team to upgrade before he signs, but there has not been one hint of that. So it's something else.

If all Carmelo wanted was NY area team and contract extension, he could have done trade and extend with Jersey by now. So he either does not want New Jersey or he knows enough to not want to go to a depleted team.

So that really leaves only NY. I guess you could make an argument for a rental or Houston-type team (lots of assets), but IMHO the chances for that are slim to none. Hey, Dallas will surely give up a second rounder for Melo, but who wouldn't, and why would Denver settle for that? And what does Melo have to look forward to on a team like Houston? Looking out there, there isn't a team that has a secondary player that Melo would like to play with who also has the market to match (from what we have all heard, big marketplace holds value for Melo and LaLa).

NY could have Melo today if they included everything under the sun. Is Donnie, home in NY for his last big legacy-making tenure as GM, really that dumb as to trade Melo and lock himself into a 50 win team that wouldn't come close to doing anything past the second round? Not likely. Dude has been around the block, in fact, he was there when the block was being made and knows enough to not go ahead with a deal like this. And if he did, I think we all should know that Dolan/CAA had their fingerprints on all of this and Donnie will exit stage left immediately.

Will Denver come to their senses? This is the linchpin decision point for me. Denver has zero motivation to move Melo before Feb 24, so it will come to last minute. In fact, it behooves Denver to wait longer while the Knicks flounder so that the pressure from media, CAA heats in the hopes of moving Donnie/Dolan enough to make a bad deal for NY (or a more favorable one for Denver).

Stupidly, Dolan could solve all ills for NY but he is too stupid to do so: Announce that he loves Donnie and give him a 2-3 year extension and tell everyone that he has heard the plan and likes it. Sphincters clenching within Denver's management office would match that only with those in CAA's offices. This would mean that Donnie could be as patient as he wanted to be without pressure from his management to make a move that would do more long term damage than not: i.e. wait for Melo in offseason.

i pretty much agree w/everything u said martin... i think a trade will go down but it won't go down til the 11th hour... the Nuggets will let Dolan stew & see if he folds... i feel sorry for DW he can't do his job if he's got a panicky owner undermining the plan he's set up, but it is what it is... i just hope DW has enough influence left w/Dolan to let him trust him to handle this his way at the deadline... but it could very well mean his job if he still can't get anything done in that scenario, so DW might fold himself knowing that.

martin wrote:
Traded, but really this is very hard to pinpoint because Denver has a significant say-so in it and it seems to me that Denver is awkwardly muddling their way through negotiations like 2 virgins in the back seat after their first school dance - lots of starts and stops and hot panting but no one has a clue what to do.

Here is what I see:

If all Carmelo wanted was the contract extension, he could have signed with Denver by now. Done and no worries, but obviously that's not all he wants. There is a possibility that he wants to stay in Denver but also wants to force the team to upgrade before he signs, but there has not been one hint of that. So it's something else.

If all Carmelo wanted was NY area team and contract extension, he could have done trade and extend with Jersey by now. So he either does not want New Jersey or he knows enough to not want to go to a depleted team.

So that really leaves only NY. I guess you could make an argument for a rental or Houston-type team (lots of assets), but IMHO the chances for that are slim to none. Hey, Dallas will surely give up a second rounder for Melo, but who wouldn't, and why would Denver settle for that? And what does Melo have to look forward to on a team like Houston? Looking out there, there isn't a team that has a secondary player that Melo would like to play with who also has the market to match (from what we have all heard, big marketplace holds value for Melo and LaLa).

NY could have Melo today if they included everything under the sun. Is Donnie, home in NY for his last big legacy-making tenure as GM, really that dumb as to trade Melo and lock himself into a 50 win team that wouldn't come close to doing anything past the second round? Not likely. Dude has been around the block, in fact, he was there when the block was being made and knows enough to not go ahead with a deal like this. And if he did, I think we all should know that Dolan/CAA had their fingerprints on all of this and Donnie will exit stage left immediately.

Will Denver come to their senses? This is the linchpin decision point for me. Denver has zero motivation to move Melo before Feb 24, so it will come to last minute. In fact, it behooves Denver to wait longer while the Knicks flounder so that the pressure from media, CAA heats in the hopes of moving Donnie/Dolan enough to make a bad deal for NY (or a more favorable one for Denver).

Stupidly, Dolan could solve all ills for NY but he is too stupid to do so: Announce that he loves Donnie and give him a 2-3 year extension and tell everyone that he has heard the plan and likes it. Sphincters clenching within Denver's management office would match that only with those in CAA's offices. This would mean that Donnie could be as patient as he wanted to be without pressure from his management to make a move that would do more long term damage than not: i.e. wait for Melo in offseason.

great post, martin.

it'd be nice if dolan could do something to strengthen donnie's negotiating position, rather than weaken it as he has been doing. too bad he's dolan and he won't.

Vmart wrote:It will be a miracle if he becomes a Knick. He is going to stay put, then opt out and join another team or stay put.

I don't want Vmart trading stock options for me.