The New Jersey Nets have pulled out of the Carmelo Anthony sweepstakes -- we think -- and so the big question is where do the Denver Nuggets go from here? What options are realistic for the Nuggets, and which ones don't make sense?I've been pelted with questions and trade proposals from readers, via Twitter and in Thursday's chat, and so it's a good time to walk through the Nuggets' options and figure out what works and what doesn't.
Let's start at the top: The deal with the Nets is still Plan A. The Nuggets would have to get a waffle-free commitment from Anthony that he would sign the extension before proceeding, obviously, because the Nets don't seem interested in playing along otherwise. But Denver had lined up what was basically a basketball version of the Herschel Walker trade, which would have jump-started their rebuilding process.
If that option is permanently off the table -- my colleague Chad Ford speculates it may not be -- the Nuggets' other options don't seem nearly as strong.
Here's what they're looking at:
Plan B: Trade him to New York
The obvious incentive for a trade to the New York Knicks is that Anthony will agree to sign an extension with New York, eliminating one of the biggest barriers to a trade. Our Royce Webb has outlined some good reasons the Knicks may not want to jump in with both feet on this one, but from the Nuggets' perspective a deal with New York makes some sense if they can get the right mix of assets in the deal.
Anything with the Knicks would presumable center on Danilo Gallinari, Landry Fields, and either Anthony Randolph or a first-round pick (exchanged from a third team for Randolph). Eddy Curry's expiring contract would provide the salary ballast. Bill Walker would likely be in the mix, too, since he's a young player who isn't getting much run in New York.
I would argue a better way for the Nuggets to go would be to dump more salary into the deal and be willing to take on fewer young players. If they did this deal, for instance, with Randolph headed to a third team in return for a first-round pick, they'd save nearly $11 million in salary and luxury tax, and the only difference is that they'd have Wilson Chandler instead of the Gallinari-Fields combo. I'd argue that's a better deal for the Knicks, too, as Gallinari's floor spacing is more important to a Melo-Amare Stoudemire core than Chandler's shot-creating ability.
Chandler will be a free agent after this season, which adds some risk for Denver, but since he's restricted they should be able to keep him at a decent price.
Nonetheless, in the big picture, all these scenarios represent a step backward for Denver, which is why the Nuggets were so unenthused about a New York deal in the first place. Whether it's Gallinari or Chandler that's the centerpiece, the Nuggets would be basically trading an All-Star small forward for a fairly good small forward and some prospects. Plus, there's another consideration here that I'll get into below.
Plan C: Trade him as a rental to Houston
Here's the problem I have with any rental scenario: By definition, the price a team is willing to pay will have to be lower. The Nuggets have a couple of suitors interested in trading for Melo in the hope that he'll agree to extend with them after the season, but because of the risk that he'll leave, there's an understandable reluctance to mortgage their franchise's future for him.
Of all the scenarios, the best one could be an offer from the Houston Rockets. The Rockets have two huge carrots -- an injury exception for Yao Ming that can swallow the entirety of Al Harrington's contract and Yao's own $17 million contract, which is covered by insurance.
Consider, for instance, a hypothetical trade such as this one. The Rockets could get the Nuggets under the luxury tax by swallowing the rest of Kenyon Martin's contract, and Denver would get three useful assets -- Chase Budinger, either Patrick Patterson or Jordan Hill (the trade works with either), and, ironically, a first-round pick from New York (either in 2011 or 2012).
If Houston is willing to go that far, the savings for Denver are massive. The Nuggets would get under the luxury tax and have all their problem contracts off the books in one stroke, plus insurance would pay the bulk of Yao's money. All told, we're looking at a total north of $20 million, depending on the timing of the trade.
Would Houston do this? I doubt it. The Rockets can part with the prospects because they're so deep, but the money side is another story. As much as it saves Denver, that's what it costs Houston in salary, luxury tax, and foregone insurance dough from the Yao contract.
A more likely alternative would be to do the same deal without Martin in it, which would still save Denver some money but would have the same essential problem as the New York deal -- it would be a massive downgrade at small forward in return for some decent prospects. Without the prospect of dumping a bunch of money on Houston, New York's potential deal looks slightly better. And neither looks all that enticing.
Plan D: Trade him as a rental to Dallas
The Dallas Mavericks are the other team with the interest and the wampum to get something done. The problem is that they can't offer much in terms of either savings or prospects. The Mavs trade would likely include the expiring contracts of Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson, along with prospects Rodrigue Beaubois and Dominique Jones and a 2011 first-rounder.
Dallas could also absorb Harrington into such a trade -- the Mavs showed interest in him this summer -- and take Renaldo Balkman into a trade exception they have left over from the Tyson Chandler trade with Charlotte. In total, the Mavs can offer reasonable cap savings and a couple of prospects in a trade such as this one.
On the other hand, Denver is going to have a tough time selling a Ty Lawson-Beaubois combo as its backcourt of the future, since both are so small and the other assets are unimpressive. Basically, this looks like a paler version of what New York or Houston can do.
Plan E: Call his bluff
The more I think about it, the more it seems this is the best option left on the table for the Nuggets and the one they should pursue if the Nets' deal can't be revived and the Rockets aren't willing to take a major financial soaking.
That's right, I think Denver should keep Melo the rest of the season.
At first, it sounds incredibly risky, but run through the scenarios and it seems very manageable for the Nuggets.
For starters, Anthony's desired end game has two prongs: An extension for the maximum by June 30 and playing for the Knicks. If the Nuggets call his bluff, he can get one or the other, but not both. By doing so, the Nuggets basically gamble that he values the extension more than the relocation.
That's a risk, obviously, and there's a chance the Nuggets wake up on July 1 with their best player as an unrestricted free agent who can leave them without compensation.
However, a few other factors mitigate that risk to a major degree:
First, as Ford pointed out in another recent piece, the Knicks don't have enough salary cap space to sign Anthony to a max contract, which means the door has been left wide open for the Nuggets to work out a sign-and-trade with New York in the offseason that brings back most of the same assets. In particular, the Knicks would have to renounce their rights to Wilson Chandler in any case, so it would make sense to put him into a sign-and-trade with the Nuggets.
Depending on what curveballs the new CBA gives us, including potentially a lower salary cap, the Knicks would also have to jettison another salary or two to fit Anthony into their cap, meaning the likes of Toney Douglas, Randolph or whomever the Knicks take with their first-round pick this year could also end up in the deal. In other words, the deal ends up being largely similar to the one currently on the table.
We have to remember that Denver's cap situation going forward is very different from that of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors a year ago. Even if the Knicks managed to clear enough cap room to sign Anthony outright and give Denver nothing in return, the Nuggets wouldn't be as crippled as the Cavs and Raptors were.
Cleveland and Toronto opted to walk away with huge trade exceptions that have proven to be of little value, largely because they couldn't create enough compensating cap space even with the star player gone. The Nuggets, in contrast, will have enough room to sign at least one max contract, even after they ink Nene Hilario (the Nuggets' other notable free agent) to a longer deal.
In other words, the Nuggets' worst-case scenario doesn't seem that bad. They could sign another big-dollar free agent -- say, David West -- have cap room left over to fill in any gaps (with a renounced Wilson Chandler being another potential target) and end up with a reasonable facsimile of the second-tier Western playoff team they currently have.
Finally, there's a third reason that the risk might not be as great as it seems: The next collective bargaining agreement could bail them out of this situation entirely, by allowing a team to place a "franchise tag" on its best player to block his exit. With such a stipulation, the Anthony drama could abruptly end. Depending on the particulars of the rule, he might get his max extension in Denver, and it might be business as usual for the Nuggets.
One gets the impression the Nuggets aren't even considering Plan E, and in light of all the goodies the Nets were going to throw their way, perhaps Plan A really was the proper choice.
But if Plan A is gone, when I look at their current alternatives and when I compare them to the potential outcomes if they don't trade Anthony, I just don't see how they make their situation better with any of the trade options left on the table.
Source: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-110121
Decent article. Only have to wait 4 more weeks.
1/21/2011 12:46 PM