During Monday's Celtics-Magic game, Reggie Miller went on a long rant about how today's 3-point shooters aren't as good as when he played and that's why Ray Allen is going to have the career 3-point record for a long time once he breaks Reggie's mark.
Miler is certainly right that Allen will break his mark -- Ray is just 27 triples behind and at his current pace will break it Feb. 13 in a nationally televised game against the Heat.
But the rest of Miller's point missed as badly as a Joel Anthony 18-footer. Throughout the league, both 3-point percentage and 3-point attempts have never been higher, suggesting that today's players shoot it far better than they did in Reggie's day.
Moreover, a few more other active players have a great shot at passing Miller before all is said and done. Jason Richardson, Rashard Lewis, J.R. Smith and Kevin Durant all have established at least a smidgeon of a chance of moving past Miller into second all time.
How do I know this? Because of a tool I created a couple years ago that builds on Bill James' "Favorite Toy" method in baseball. The method is outlined here and it's pretty long-winded, so if you don't want to read it all here's the Cliff Notes version: Establish the player's current rate of production in a given category, establish how many more the player needs in that category to break the record, and establish how long the player is likely to play. From those three inputs, we derive a percentage chance of the player breaking the record.
Using that method, chances are that one active player other than Allen will end up with more career 3s than Miller. Right now the best chance belongs to Lewis (48.2 percent), followed by Richardson (33.9 percent), Smith (14.8 percent), Danilo Gallinari (6.9 percent), and Durant (4.2 percent).
Allen, however, may prove too hard for any of these players to catch. Because of his youth, Gallinari would appear to have the best shot; my method also short-changes him a bit because it counts his rookie season, when he hardly played. However, this method also shows how amazingly off Miller was: Even if Allen had never played a game, Miller's would be the second-most vulnerable major record right now.
While several current players have established at least a sliver of a chance of breaking a major career record, two others in particular stand out. The first, of course, is the record for "most times adjusting a pair of goggles during live game action," which Washington's Kirk Hinrich has managed to threaten in just three short weeks and should break any day now.
But the more important one that's likely to fall is John Havlicek's record for missed field goals, which Kobe Bryant should break at some point early in the 2013-14 season. My method gives him a 97 percent chance of setting the mark, which essentially means that barring an injury Kobe will hold the record. His current rate is 866 misses a season and he's only 2,204 short of the record.
Bryant may not own this one for long, however, as several younger players have established a shot to re-break it once he's moved on. LeBron James (33.3 percent), Durant (23.8 percent) and Carmelo Anthony (23.7 percent) all stand a chance to surpass Havlicek in the later parts of their careers.
What other records have a decent chance of being broken?
As far as positive records go, after the 3-point record the most vulnerable mark is a doozy: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career scoring record. Bryant has established a 32.7 percent chance of breaking the mark, and from this corner it seems his knees will likely be the biggest hurdle.
If Kobe doesn't get it, one of the young guns might. James (24.2 percent) and Durant (18 percent) both have established a halfway decent chance of toppling Kareem, although in James' case his new partnership with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh may end up hurting the cause.
The Kobe Show
Bryant is certain to own only one record -- missed field goals -- but could potentially own a ton of others. If he feels like hanging around for a while he can take aim at Abdul-Jabbar's records for career games and minutes, both of which he has about a one-in-six shot of claiming. Thanks to the preps-to-pros generation, several other contemporaries have established a shot at these marks, including a few unlikely ones -- Rudy Gay, for instance, clocks in at 11.1 percent for the career minutes mark.
Durant and James should be strong pursuers of both marks as well, although the limitation on games (it's virtually impossible to play more than 82, although thanks to a midseason trade Jarrett Jack may pull it off this season) makes that one more difficult to achieve.
Bryant also has a better chance of owning Kareem's record for career field goal attempts, with a 45.2 percent shot. Again, the usual suspects show up further down the list -- James (20.9 percent), Durant (14.4 percent) and Anthony (7.5 percent) may also end up taking aim at this one.
It's a similar story at the free throw line, where Bryant, James and Durant have a decent shot at owning the records for both attempts and makes. In terms of makes, Bryant has the best shot of getting there first, obviously, and at 25.4 percent it's nothing to sniff at. Durant, however, has the best shot at putting up a truly lofty career total and a 26 percent of surpassing leader Karl Malone. James, at 23.3 percent, is also in the picture and could gain ground quickly if he improves his aim.
In terms of attempts, James (20.4 percent) has the best shot of catching the Mailman, and it's one of the few categories where Bryant (3.9 percent) is almost certain to fall short. Durant (11.3 percent) is again a factor here.
NBA career records with a chance of falling
*By rule, probability cannot exceed 97
Player Record Established pace To go Percent chance
Ray Allen 3-pointers 171 27 97.0*
Kobe Bryant Missed field goals 869 2,204 97.0*
Kobe Bryant Field-goal attempts 1,601 7,744 45.7
Kobe Bryant Points 2,057 11,513 32.7
LeBron James Turnovers 275 2,567 32.2
Dwight Howard Fouls 276 2,937 27.8
Kevin Durant Free throws 615 7,900 26.0
LeBron James Free-throw attempts 726 7,913 20.4
Kobe Bryant Minutes 2,799 18,653 19.5
Kobe Bryant Games 79 547 16.8
Dwight Howard Defensive rebounds 765 9,660 15.7
Dwight Howard Blocks 202 2,701 11.8
LeBron James Field goals 729 10,064 5.5
Chris Paul Steals 180 2,328 4.4
Kevin Love Offensive rebounds 320 6,026 1.9
Negative records
Those marks for free throws are nice, but a more interesting race may be Dwight Howard's quest to own Wilt Chamberlain's mark for misses. He's already clanged 1,879 of them and has a 17.9 percent chance of owning Wilt's prodigious mark by the end of his career.
Another interesting "negative" race is the one for the career turnover mark held by Malone. There's a decent chance an active player will break it -- James leads the pack at 33.2 percent, but Howard (27 percent), Bryant (26.6 percent), Durant (16 percent), Jason Kidd (5.1 percent) and Anthony (3.7 percent) all are hot on the trail.
The career record for fouls is another one that could be threatened in the coming years. Graybeard Shaquille O'Neal remains in the running with a 24.4 percent chance, although it appears increasingly likely he'll check out before he breaks Kareem's record. The best chance of an active player belongs to Howard, at 27.8 percent, while Amare Stoudemire remains in the hunt at 19.1 percent and would probably be even with Howard if not for his missed season for microfracture surgery.
Less Likely records
Howard is the top active player in the pursuit of three other records, although none seems particularly likely to topple. For starters, Howard also has a 15.6 percent chance of breaking the mark for defensive rebounds, but that one comes with a Chamberlain-sized asterisk: The league didn't track defensive boards when Wilt and Bill Russell played, so he's competing against Malone for this honor.
The overall rebound mark, held by Chamberlain, will be much more challenging -- Howard only has a 1.1 percent shot of busting it.
Similarly, Kevin Love is competing with another Malone -- Moses -- for the offensive boards record. His odds are slim, at 1.9 percent, but may improve steadily over the next two years if he can maintain the rate he established in the first half of this season. My method is still skeptical he can keep up such a phenomenal rate.
On the defensive side, Howard has at least a chance of breaking Hakeem Olajuwon's blocks record at 11.8 percent, but this again comes with the Russell-Chamberlain caveat because the league didn't rack blocks then.
If you're a point guard, by the way, you're probably out of luck in the quest for career records. John Stockton's assists record is pretty much permanently out of reach, and his record for steals isn't much more likely to fall. Chris Paul is the only player with an established chance (4.4 percent) at the steals record, and knowing what we do about CP3's knees makes it seem unlikely he'll have the necessary longevity to break it.
