Following the Carmelo Anthony drama the past few months has been exhausting. There have been so many things said, and so many printed, yet despite day-to-day updates on the on-again-off-again trade talks, what do we really know?
Here are the key facts as we know them:1. Anthony is expected to sign a three-year contract extension worth nearly $65 million, most likely by the Feb. 24 trade deadline, or become a free agent after the season.
2. The Denver Nuggets have offered Anthony such an extension, but he has yet to sign.
3. The New Jersey Nets have made a strong, concerted effort to work out a multi-team trade for Anthony, which they'll be willing to complete if Anthony is willing to sign an extension with them.
4. Anthony has expressed a desire to return to New York, where he was born, preferably with the Knicks, although he might be willing to consider the Nets, as well.
After that, we have a lot of conflicting information.
Here are some of the unanswered questions:
Are the Nuggets ready and willing to pull the trigger on the Nets' offer of Derrick Favors, draft picks and cap space for Anthony?
The answers range from yes to maybe, depending on the source. While the reports that the Nuggets will give the Nets permission to talk to Anthony point to a strong yes, we've also heard that there has been no firm agreement in terms of the draft picks involved and how many bad contracts the Nuggets will insist on moving in the trade. From Henry Abbott and others we have heard informed speculation that the Nuggets want to drag this out as long as possible so that the Nets will lose more, improving the quality of the draft pick they would be sending to Denver.
Is Melo willing to sign an extension with the Nets?
The answers range from no to maybe, depending on the source. While some reports said that Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov was expecting to be granted a sitdown with Anthony this week, as of Monday evening, the meeting hadn't been arranged. While Prokhorov might be able to make a persuasive case and members of Anthony's team have given the Nets reason to believe he'd be amenable to signing with the Nets, there is also plenty of evidence that Melo is still holding out for the Knicks.
Could a third team -- besides the Knicks and Nets -- be in the running for Anthony?
Denver has been playing this part pretty close to the vest. The Rockets have been mentioned most often as a potential Anthony destination, but there could be other teams, too. The Mavericks are reportedly interested, and the Bobcats and Magic reportedly inquired earlier in the season.
In addition to all the unanswered questions, we have another issue in this case -- all the half-truths and untruths that have arisen, as they often do in such complex stories.
Some of these "myths" have to do with the overheated desires of fans that want Melo, and others just have to do with a misunderstanding of how the NBA's complicated trade and salary cap rules operate.
To clear up some misconceptions, let's address some of the biggest myths floating around:
Myth 1: The Knicks are willing to do whatever it takes to get Anthony, and they have the ability to match the Nets' offer.This is really a pair of myths in one.
It's far from clear that the Knicks are ready to gut the roster to get Anthony. They want him, but the team is playing well and GM Donnie Walsh is loath to overpay.
Furthermore, now that Amare Stoudemire is playing like an MVP candidate, the Knicks aren't as desperate to land a superstar as the Nets are, especially when there's a chance they could land Anthony in free agency this summer (see Myth 2).
Do the Knicks have enough to get Melo in a blue and orange jersey?
But even if the Knicks did want to attempt to match the Nets' offer, the deck is stacked against them. Not only are the Nets offering Favors (the one guy being discussed who has the potential to be as good as Anthony is down the road), they are also offering a great trade chip (Devin Harris), multiple late lottery to mid-first-round picks (likely their own this year and a top-eight-protected pick from the Warriors in 2012) and -- this is a key point -- massive cap relief this season and beyond.
The Knicks have talent they can throw the Nuggets' way. Wilson Chandler is having a terrific year, Danilo Gallinari has a bright future and Landry Fields was the steal of the draft, but the Nuggets don't value any of them as highly as they do Favors.
The Knicks currently don't have much to offer in the way of draft picks. They can't trade their first-round draft pick this year or in 2013 per NBA rules, and the Rockets own New York's 2012 pick. The Knicks have been talking about trading Anthony Randolph for a first-round pick -- with Minnesota, Portland and Indiana mentioned as possible trade destinations -- but sources say that these teams are unwilling to offer a high-quality first-round pick for Randolph. If the Knicks can get a first round pick for him, it will likely have protections on it, making it the equivalent of a mid-to-late-first-rounder.
Just as importantly, the Knicks can't offer the Nuggets nearly the amount of cap relief (this season or in the future) that the Nets can.
Basically there is nothing the Knicks can do to trump the Nets' offer
Myth 2: The Knicks can just trade for Anthony after the season.This myth has made the rounds in the New York media, but it's essentially untrue.
My colleague Larry Coon has covered this, but the bottom line is that once the trade deadline passes the Knicks' offer gets dramatically worse. The main problem is that they can no longer use Eddy Curry's expiring contract nor Chandler in a deal, because after the season teams can't trade players whose contracts are set to end or may end that summer.
Myth 4: If the Nets or Knicks can get Anthony, they'll likely land a top-tier free agent such as Chris Paul, Dwight Howard or Deron Williams in the summer of 2012.It's possible but not particularly plausible. Again, the NBA salary cap rules are throwing a wrench in this fanboy dream.
While we don't know the particulars of the new CBA, it's likely to force down the salary cap and make it more difficult for teams to sign multiple max players. While some players might want to imagine future Miami Heat-style superteams, the owners are not as thrilled by this prospect.
Get Melo now and Chris Paul later? That could be just wishful thinking.
Even if the CBA were unchanged, the Nets and Knicks would not likely have the cap space in 2012 to sign another max free agent after signing Anthony in 2011.
The Nets' situation is the more complicated case. On paper, it looks like the team would be about $15 million under the cap going into the summer of 2012 (if they traded for Anthony, Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton, as has been discussed), but that does not figure in the large $9.2 million cap hold for Brook Lopez.
For a restricted free agent like Lopez, league rules require a team to set aside cap space, and this cap hold stays on the books, just like a real salary, until the team either renounces its rights to the player or signs him to a new deal. Lopez is a cornerstone piece for the Nets, so it's highly unlikely they'd renounce him. If they sign him, the going rate on centers of his caliber is a starting salary of at least $10 million, and maybe more. So, even under the current rules, that would leave the Nets with $5 million or less in cap room, far from the $18 million or so they'd need to sign a max free agent.
Yes, the Nets could start gutting their roster, as the Heat did in 2010. Hamilton would be in the last year of his contract (remember, only $9 million is guaranteed on Rip's last year) and perhaps the Nets could get other teams interested in Travis Outlaw and Jordan Farmar, but it's far from a foregone conclusion that they could clear the space they would need.
The Knicks have a slightly easier path, but it too is challenging.
Going into the summer of 2012, the team would be sitting at a payroll of around $43 million with just four players on their roster -- Anthony, Stoudemire, Toney Douglas and their 2011 first-round draft pick, with Raymond Felton departing as a free agent. Assuming a salary cap of $58 million, on paper it looks like they would be pretty close to having the ability to sign another max player. But Gallinari will be a restricted free agent and, like Lopez, have a large cap hold. The team would also incur what the league calls minimum cap holds to represent others player with minimum salaries that they would have to add to their roster. If the Knicks were to renounce Gallinari and not pick up Douglas' option, they would be close to having enough money to lure another elite free agent like Paul, Howard or Williams.
But as you can see, it would mean that Walsh would have to gut this current Knicks squad for it to happen.
Myth 5: Carmelo holds the cards.This depends on one's point of view, but I think it's still the Nuggets who hold the most leverage.
I took negotiation theory in law school, in which we studied the idea of BATNA -- Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement.
The idea behind BATNA is that rational parties determine the best alternative to the ideal agreement.
So if the Nuggets can't convince Anthony to sign an extension in Denver, what is their best alternative?
If Anthony can't convince the Nuggets to trade him to the Knicks, what is his best alternative?
For the Nuggets, it's pretty straightforward. If he won't sign in Denver, they trade him and get back assets. Losing Anthony to free agency and getting nothing in return is an option that no one is seriously considering in Denver. What they get for him is still up in the air, but they're determined to get something for him.
For Anthony, it's more complicated. If he really wants to play for the Knicks, and to win, the easiest path is for him to wait until this summer and then negotiate with the Knicks as a free agent. He might lose a lot of money (as discussed in Myth 3), but hey, he'd be with the Knicks.
If what Anthony really wants is financial security in the form of $80-plus million, his best alternative is to agree to an extension with the Nets. He won't be with the Knicks, but he'll have his money and pretty soon he'll be playing in Brooklyn, N.Y.
If the Nuggets believe the former (that Anthony really wants to go to the Knicks, no matter what), he has a lot of control. In that case, the Nuggets may feel as though the Knicks have the best available offer, since that would likely mean the Nets have been eliminated from the discussion.
But if the Nuggets believe the latter (that Anthony really wants the financial security first and foremost), they hold the cards.
So which is it? Up to this point, Anthony hasn't stated he's willing to wait and see how the chips fall in the offseason, as far as we know. In fact, his agent, Leon Rose, seems to be signaling the opposite. The fervor with which Rose has tried to broker a deal is a sign that Anthony doesn't want to wait. If Anthony really was open to waiting until this summer to resolve things, he could have made that clear to the Nuggets. And that, in turn, would be the strongest negotiating move in his arsenal to get the Nuggets to work out something with the Knicks.
Regardless of who holds the cards, it remains an often-fascinating, sometimes-tiresome game of poker as we approach the Feb. 24 trade deadline.
1/18/2011 1:49 PM LAST EDITED: 1/18/2011 1:50 PM
