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What if there were do-overs in the draft?
After a quarter of the season, what if teams could pick another player from the 2010 draft? Would they take a short-term approach and try for a quick fix? Would they draft differently if the guy they selected ended up getting hurt early on? Or would they simply know a lot more about these guys, as professionals, and have a different view of either their own draft pick or someone else's?
Well, let's have some fun and find out.
It's too early to make final judgments or say that teams were wrong in the draft. Rather, this is just another snapshot of how the rookies look today.
Eventually, this will be a way to see how this season's rookies evolve, as we return to this theme from time to time. As we see every year, fortunes ebb and flow over the course of a season -- and a career.
Note: In the case of the Nets, Kings and Clippers, we're not saying they took the wrong player -- quite the opposite, in fact.
Still, it's an instructive exercise. And as of today, there is little doubt that many teams would like a do-over with their pick.
But not at the No. 1 spot ...
Wall
Pick No. 1: John Wall to the Wizards
Hmmm, would the Wiz take a point guard who shows competitive fire, Formula 1 speed, a willingness to defend and the charisma of a star? Of course they would.
A better debate about Wall: Where would he go in a draft with Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin? I'd guess 50 percent of the GMs would take Wall first. That's how special he can be.
While Rose is a dynamic scorer and Griffin is a beast all over the court, Wall can be both a great scorer and a more natural lead guard than Rose, while also being an upgrade on defense. And it seems the league values guys like him more than anyone else besides star quality centers.
Favors
Pick No. 2: Derrick Favors to the 76ers
This looks like as much of a no-brainer as the No. 1 selection. With the Nets, Favors has shown tremendous promise as a rebounder and scorer in the paint and would have gotten plenty of minutes in Philly's rotation.
Which looks like a better foundation to build on: Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner as a backcourt duo or Holiday and Favors as a pick-and-roll combo? Holiday and Favors are two of the youngest players in the league, and both possess a demeanor that suggests they are very serious pros.
Cousins
Pick No. 3: DeMarcus Cousins to the Nets
New Jersey would be a perfect spot for Cousins, if Favors weren't available. Tough-minded coach with lots of credibility. A culture of rules and discipline (see Terrence Williams and the D-League). And a franchise center already in place. There wouldn't be any gargantuan banners of him hanging off buildings, as we've seen in Sacramento. And my guess is that in Jersey, we would have seen a slimmer Cousins, who'd have had to work each day just to survive matchups with Brook Lopez and Avery Johnson's expectations.
Aminu
Pick No. 4: Al-Farouq Aminu to the Timberwolves
Who knew Aminu would make more than half of his 45 3-pointers in his first 20 games as a pro? And at just 20 years of age (a full three years younger than Wes Johnson), his upside is huge. He would have been a great fit on the Wolves, an improving team that could really use perimeter shooting.
With the way Kevin Love rebounds, the Wolves would have been able to play Aminu some at the 4 with little fear of getting killed on the glass (before he builds enough strength to hold his own). Eventually, Aminu should be able to learn to do some real damage from that spot.
Bledsoe
Pick No. 5: Eric Bledsoe to the Kings
Sacramento has the second-worst record in the league for the year 2010, with just 15 wins since Jan. 1, never winning more than four games in a month. The Kings epitomize rebuilding, a mode they've been in for years. (They got good value with Cousins, but in this exercise, he's off the board.)
Now it looks as though the team realizes that the reigning rookie of the year, Tyreke Evans, is better off playing next to a true point guard. And Bledsoe has shown the ability to play that part well this season in his stints as a starter with the Clippers. With his explosive athleticism, he would have given the Kings a very young, very interesting backcourt going forward.
Sanders
Pick No. 6: Larry Sanders to the Warriors
An athletic big man has been a need in Golden State for a while, and Sanders would have fit the bill beautifully. He especially would have been an upgrade on defense, as scoring is a luxury that this team does not necessarily need.
His eight blocked shots in Denver gave us a glimpse of the paint presence he can be. And he could have developed nicely next to David Lee.
Davis
Pick No. 7: Ed Davis to the Pistons
He's been back for only a few games this season, but based on what he did in summer league and this past week, Davis would have been able to become a high productivity guy in Detroit.
He's a better rebounder than he seems and he's a finisher who knows how to get off good shots. Detroit would be a better interior team with Davis.
Fields
Pick No. 8: Landry Fields to the Clippers
If Aminu hadn't been available, Fields would have been a fantastic left-field pick. It's hard to pinpoint exactly what position Landry Fields is best suited for in the NBA, but it's easy to say he's an excellent wing player who would have fit beautifully next to Eric Gordon.
Fields is one of the top rebounders of this class, and his feel for the game also would work well with a beastly scorer like Blake Griffin, who demands extra attention from defenders. Fields can slash and pass -- both necessities when dealing with rotating defenses -- and his shot looks like it will be solid, too.
Johnson
Pick No. 9: Wes Johnson to the Jazz
For an offense that loves to invert its players, wings who can post up thrive (point guards, too). Johnson has a penchant for jacking up jumpers, which is not good, but in Utah he would have been forced to spend lots of time in the paint, which would be good. Given his athleticism, think Ronnie Brewer with a better jumper.
Johnson's maturity would have helped him blend in well with the atmosphere in Utah, and his temperament would have helped him deal with Jerry Sloan's rough side. This is perhaps my favorite fit of the top 10.
Henry
Pick No. 10: Xavier Henry to the Pacers
Wanted: A multitalented guard with a predisposition to defend. Also must have a high ceiling to grow with this up-and-coming team. Xavier Henry, come on down!
Impressively, Henry is currently finding ways in Memphis to contribute beyond his shooting stroke, which was considered his strength this summer but is not there yet. He takes pride in his defense and plays with a nice tempo, similar to James Harden as a rookie. He can become an excellent shooter and has the look of a player who will learn to hurt defenders in the post.
Rookie Rankings
Here are my latest observations on the top 5 rookies (yes, Cousins is moving on up!):
Blake Griffin, Clippers
Griffin continues to play at an All-Star level, racking up impressive double-doubles and flirting with triple-doubles on occasion.
ROOKIE 50 RANKINGS
We're keeping track of every NBA rook. Here are the latest Top 50 rankings.
Rank Player Stock
1 Blake Griffin
2 John Wall
3 Landry Fields
4 Gary Forbes
5 DeMarcus Cousins
6 Derrick Favors
7 Gary Neal
8 Tiago Splitter
9 Eric Bledsoe
10 Al-Farouq Aminu
• Click here for the complete rankings »
An observation: I remember watching him make 3-pointers in his summer league debut in 2009, so guess how many he's made this season? Not one, which makes sense because he's attempted only one. That tells us two things: (1) He is nowhere near his ceiling, because he is going to be able to make 3s one day, and (2) he plays with maturity and discipline by sticking to what he's good at.
John Wall, Wizards
As with most young point guards, Wall has struggled with shot selection recently. He's still a blur in transition, but teams know that and are trying to send more people back to slow him. In the half court, he too often settles for the deep 2-pointer or the 3, when he'd be better off always looking to attack.
Landry Fields, Knicks
I sound like a broken record, but in a way, that's how Fields plays, too -- every game he finds ways to contribute even when his scoring is off. It's something every rookie should strive for (every vet, too) and it's not that easy. He grabbed nine or more rebounds in six of the Knicks' past eight games and added nine steals in that span.
Gary Forbes, Nuggets
Forget the fact he's third among rookies in PER. Nothing trumps winning, and when rookies make key contributions to wins, it enhances their value a great deal. In a tight, five-point win against the Suns on Nov. 28, Forbes came off the bench for 20 minutes and put up 15 points (on 5-of-8 shooting), 3 rebounds and 2 assists. Then after playing just five total minutes in the next two games, he made all four of his shot attempts in a one-point win over Memphis.
DeMarcus Cousins, Kings
One way you know your team is struggling is when your young center has a true shooting percentage below 47 percent. Cousins still refuses to pass up open jumpers, not yet realizing that he's open by design. But he is competing hard and, with his talent, that goes a long way. I also like the fact he's not afraid to fail -- that will help him grow as a player.
12/8/2010 11:24 PM