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CrushAlot
Posts: 59764 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 7/25/2003 Member: #452 USA |
10/4/2010 6:20 PM
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba...e=KnicksProfiles1011
We shared our forecast for the Knicks in 2010-11. Now it's time to take a closer look at their roster. Here are my player scouting reports and '10-11 projections. (Note: Projections are for players who played at least 500 minutes in the NBA or 250 minutes in the Euroleague in '09-10.) STARTERS RAYMOND FELTON, PG Projection: 14.5 pts, 4.3 reb, 6.8 ast per 40 min; 14.99 PER | Player card • Up-tempo point guard who can push ball in transition. Mediocre outside shooter. Although Felton struggles to finish, he made progress last season. He sunk 56.1 percent of his shots in the basket area last season, which I suspect is a fluke (he's usually in the low-to-mid 40s). But if it's not, then he offers a lot more offensive value. Felton still doesn't draw many fouls, which is troubling because he goes to the basket fairly often. On a positive note, he may get more opportunities to do his thing in the open court in New York than he did in Charlotte. All told, he's good for a stopgap and bad for a long-term solution. He'll defend and run the offense decently and he'll make enough shots that teams will guard him. But I have trouble seeing him as the pick-and-roll operator who can take D'Antoni's offense to the next level. If anything, his numbers are likely to regress from a season ago, as his improvement was primarily because of a jump in shooting percentages (both on short 2s and long 3s) that he'll have trouble maintaining. WILSON CHANDLER, SG Projection: 17.2 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.7 ast per 40 min; 13.78 PER | Player card • Long wing who can score going to basket. Likes to drive right baseline. Chandler is a 3 but played the 2 most of last season. This role doesn't suit him nearly as well -- he's 6-8, he's not a great ballhandler and he can't shoot. However, Chandler kept spotting up for jumpers and missing them, making 26.7 percent of his 3s and 37.7 percent of his long 2s. Chandler is much more effective going to the basket, but to be an effective scorer, as opposed to a league-average possessions-eater like he is now, he needs to draw more fouls. His rate of 0.19 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is unacceptable for a non-shooter, especially one with his athletic skills. Chandler's length and athleticism contribute to his potential as a defensive stopper -- especially if he can get back to playing his natural 3 spot. That hasn't been an area of focus in New York, but the Knicks were 5.0 points per 100 possessions better with Chandler on the court. DANILO GALLINARI, SF Projection: 18.1 pts, 5.6 reb, 2.0 ast per 40 min; 15.13 PER | Player card • Deadly outside shooter with size to release over closing defenders. More than half of Gallinari's shots were 3s and he nailed 38.1 percent of them, which is good; what the data doesn't show is that he converted a lot of the shots despite having an opponent's paw in his face. At 6-10 he doesn't require a big opening to get his shot away, though his stroke is a bit flat if you're nit-picking. Gallinari played some 3 last season, but between a bad back and slow feet he's almost certainly destined for a career at the 4, which maximizes his skill as a floor spacer. To do that, however, it would be nice if he grabbed a rebound once in a while -- Gallinari ranked second-to-last among power forwards in rebound rate. In addition, there's the little problem of Stoudemire also playing the 4, which could send Gallinari back to the wing … and send opposing small forwards streaking to the basket. ANTHONY RANDOLPH, PF Projection: 23.6 pts, 11.9 reb, 2.6 ast per 40 min; 21.48 PER | Player card • Slender, long-armed lefty with advanced ballhandling skill for size. Randolph played 33 games of exhilarating Jekyll-and-Hyde basketball before an ankle injury shut down his season. Heights included 28 points and 13 rebounds against Orlando, eight blocks against New Orleans and an amazing five offensive fouls drawn in one game against the Clippers. Other times it looked like his brain was vacationing on Mars -- most notably during his 0-point, 0-assist, 1-rebound "effort" in Detroit. The overall takeaway is that Randolph holds a lot of promise for a 21-year-old prospect who entered the league very raw. Randolph has the potential to be a Marcus Camby-esque dominator defensively -- he rated third among power forwards in blocks per minute and sixth in steals per minute -- and needs only to improve his understanding and effort level to become an ace disruptor. Offensively, he has much to learn. Randolph can create shots but has no clue what a good one is, so he too often settles for a flat-footed, line-drive jumper that he flicks off his shoulder. Reports differ as to his attitude and work ethic, although that may partly result from the dysfunctional environment at Golden State. He's a valuable player now and could be amazing in a couple of years, but a lot of rough edges remain. AMARE STOUDEMIRE, C Projection: 24.2 pts, 9.6 reb, 1.4 ast per 40 min; 20.44 PER | Player card • Lethal finisher rolling to rim on pick-and-roll, but also can hit jumper. Stoudemire has his shortcomings, but his one strength is so overwhelming that he's still an incredibly effective player. He can score from anywhere on anyone, and he does it with far greater efficiency than most high scorers. Last season, Stoudemire scored 26.7 points per 40 minutes and achieved the second-highest true shooting percentage among power forwards, a lethal offensive combination that played a major role in Phoenix's No. 1 mark in offensive efficiency. He improved as the season progressed, too. After spending much of the offseason motionless while recovering from retina surgery, he averaged 21.3 points per game over the first three months of the season. Over the final 2½ months, spanning 33 games, his average ballooned to 26.4. His rebound rate increased dramatically as well; for all the critique of his rebounding over the years, he leapt above the league average for power forwards in rebound rate. On the negative side, there's that pesky "1.0" in the assist column. Yes, he averaged 23.1 points and one measly assist per game. Among power forwards, Stoudemire ranked second-to-last in assist ratio and last in pure point rating. In fact, his minus-5.58 pure point rating was worse than that of only two other players -- centers Dwight Howard and Tyson Chandler. Part of that results from Stoudemire committing too many offensive fouls, with a staggering 43 last season. Of course, he probably wouldn't commit as many if there were any threat of his passing the ball. KEY RESERVES KELENNA AZUBUIKE, SF No projection | Player card • Powerful wing who also can hit 3-pointers; good post player and rebounder. Azubuike played nine games before tearing his patella tendon and missing the rest of the season. His recovery will dictate how much he can contribute, but he was a defensive liability even before the injury. Offensively, he can probably do most of the same things -- his game was based in equal parts on power and shooting ability, but very little on quickness. ROGER MASON, SG Projection: 13.3 pts, 4.0 reb, 3.1 ast per 40 min; 9.78 PER | Player card • Catch-and-shoot specialist with quick, line-drive release. Can hit off dribble, too. Shooters who hit shooting slumps don't offer much value, so Mason's 33.3 percent mark on 3s ushered him out of San Antonio's guard rotation. While Mason also provides some modest utility as a backup point guard, he's exposed defensively in that role because of subpar quickness. Making matters worse is his near total inability to draw fouls. Mason landed at the bottom among shooting guards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt; overall, only three players drew fouls less often. One cause was that Mason took only 10 percent of his shots in the basket area -- again, one of the lowest rates in basketball. Combined with the wayward 3-point shooting, he was 59th out of 66 shooting guards in TS%. For a shooting specialist, that won't cut it. BILL WALKER, SG Projection: 17.9 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.2 ast per 40 min; 14.65 PER | Player card • Athletic wing with scoring instincts. Moves well without ball. Walker was a revelation after he landed in New York at the trade deadline, shooting so well from distance that he nearly led the league in TS%. Walker hit 43.8 percent of his 3s and 51.7 percent overall; while the 3-point shooting is all but certain to decline this season, Walker has hit a high percentage of his 2s everywhere he's been and could stay around 50 percent from the floor. Walker's nose for the ball on offense is not matched by the same zest on the boards or at the defensive end. He ranked 61st out of 67 small forwards in rebound rate, and only two small forwards blocked shots less often. He fouled frequently (ninth-most among small forwards) and needs to upgrade his defensive game across the board. Dropping 10-15 pounds from his chunky frame would be a good first step, something he reportedly accomplished in the offseason. TONEY DOUGLAS, PG Projection: 16.9 pts, 3.8 reb, 4.1 ast per 40 min; 14.56 PER | Player card • Dogged defender with good lateral movement. Can check 1s or 2s. Douglas was about as advertised as a rookie in terms of skill set, but the combination worked out better than expected because he banked more shots. His 57.1 TS% ranked a surprising 12th among point guards, helped by a 38.9 percent mark on 3s. Given that he made 37.6 percent from the shorter college distance, I'd take it with a grain of salt. Fortunately, Douglas doesn't need to shoot the lights out to fill a role as a combo guard off the bench. He can defend and create shots; if he could set up a basket once in a while (he was just 67th out of 71 point guards in assist ratio last season), the Knicks could live with him shooting in the low-to-mid 30s on 3s. One other thing to keep in mind with Douglas is that he spent five years at Florida State, so he's unusually long in the tooth (24) for a second-year player. RONNY TURIAF, C Projection: 10.1 pts, 8.6 reb, 4.6 ast per 40 min; 13.03 PER | Player card • Hyperactive big man who pursues every block, but a below average rebounder. Turiaf played only 42 games and it looked like the time off might have affected his conditioning. He rated only 15th among centers in blocks per minute -- a low ranking for him -- and his offensive numbers, which usually come on sheer energy, diminished to just 9.8 points per 40 minutes. Turiaf seemed to lose confidence in his midrange J, taking only 24 long 2s all season. That issue extended to his abysmal 47.4 percent mark from the line. While he's become a much better finisher -- he made 70.3 percent of his basket-area shots last season -- he came out behind on the trade. TIMOFEY MOZGOV, C Projection: 13.4 pts, 14.3 reb, 0.5 ast per 40 min; 9.95 PER | Player card • Big center who can rebound. Decent scorer but prone to turnovers. Mozgov translates as an NBA rebounder but not anything else. He projects to average 14.3 boards per 40 minutes, which would be fairly sensational, but only as a 44.0 percent shooter with a 9.95 PER. Why such a poor PER projection? Fouls and turnovers. Gobs of them. In Euroleague play last season, he committed 50 fouls in 218 minutes, a phenomenal rate that would have him fouling out, on average, just after halftime of an NBA game. Additionally, he committed a turnover every 9½ minutes. Those factors are likely to make him a backup center at best while the Knicks wait for him to develop further. EDDY CURRY, C No projection | Player card • Low-post scorer who can overpower defenders on block. Can hit from 15. It's hard to remember that Curry is only 27. He's shown no desire to get in anything resembling basketball shape the past two years, and frankly, he was one of the league's most overrated players prior to that point. There is no expectation that he'll play this season, but his expiring $11.3 million contract could become an important trade chip. ANDY RAUTINS, SG No projection | Player card • Good outside shooter with solid ballhandling skills. Can't create own shot. Rautins played 32.5 minutes a game as a 23-year-old at Syracuse … and averaged 12.1 points per game. He's a good 3-point shooter (40.8 percent as a senior) but far from elite based on his free throw and 3-point numbers over his three-year career. He handles the ball well for his size but couldn't create shots against younger collegians; he sure as heck isn't going to against pros. I suppose he could work out, but I'm dubious. LANDRY FIELDS, SG No projection | Player card • Polished college scorer with high basketball IQ. May need to add strength. Fields had a strong summer league but will face a stiff challenge athletically as a pro. He shot 33.7 percent on 3s and 69.6 percent from the line as a senior at Stanford, so he won't cut it as a spot-up shooter. However, I don't think he has the chops to get to the rim time and again. Nor is he going to make a living as a defensive ace, which very much leaves in question how he might contribute. Should he defy the odds and start knocking down 3s, he has enough other tools in his shed to prove helpful. http://community.msgnetwork.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/55310655/m/831103673 I'm tired,I'm tired, I'm so tired right now......Kristaps Porzingis 1/3/18
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nixluva
Posts: 56258 Alba Posts: 0 Joined: 10/5/2004 Member: #758 USA |
10/5/2010 2:32 AM
Horrible synopsis. What are we supposed to learn from that garbage? It seems like a waste of time.
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Vmart
Posts: 31800 Alba Posts: 1 Joined: 5/23/2002 Member: #247 USA |
10/5/2010 9:50 AM
Very deceptive. I wouldn't go by those numbers.
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fishmike
Posts: 53851 Alba Posts: 1 Joined: 7/19/2002 Member: #298 USA |
10/5/2010 1:24 PM
Hollinger sucks... he really adds little to nothing.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
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Bonn1997
Posts: 58654 Alba Posts: 2 Joined: 2/2/2004 Member: #581 USA |
10/6/2010 6:32 AM
Hollinger's usually much more accurate than excited fans are
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