2009-10 Recap
After two long years of waiting for their cap space to arrive, the Knicks didn't blast the home run they were seeking. No, LeBron won't be coming to the Big Apple to save the day. Instead, the question of the day is whether the Knicks' other moves will finally make them respectable.
The clock is ticking on the Donnie Walsh-Mike D'Antoni partnership in New York now that their big summer splash in 2010 turned into more of a sprinkle. While Amare Stoudemire will help, he replicates a lot of the strengths and weaknesses of the departed David Lee. Other moves around the periphery should produce similar outcomes -- helpful, sure, but unlikely to translate into a dramatic U-turn in the standings.
HOLLINGER'S '09-10 STATS
W-L: 29-53 (Pythagorean W-L: 29-53)
Offensive Efficiency: 105.2 (15th)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 (27th)
Pace Factor: 96.1 (9th)
Highest PER: David Lee (22.28)
The good news for New York is that it still has several cards to play. New York is on pace to have cap space to sign a big-ticket free agent in 2011 and again in 2012, so there's still time to significantly upgrade the Stoudemire-Gallinari-Randolph-Felton-Chandler core.
However, New York paid a huge ransom just to put itself in position to be a player in the Summer of LeBron, and it will pay the price for failure in the form of forfeited draft picks and other assets. In the final tally, New York may end up sacrificing three lottery picks -- 2009 first-rounder Jordan Hill and its 2011 and 2012 first-rounders -- just to create enough cap space to sign Raymond Felton. (The cap room to obtain Stoudemire was already there.) Needless to say, the Knicks were targeting bigger prey.
One also has to worry about the behind-the-scenes buffoonery of owner James Dolan. The news that he's still chummy with Isiah Thomas sent shockwaves through the Knicks' fan base, not to mention the rest of the front office. Few Knicks fans have forgotten that Thomas' ruinous rein earlier in the decade put the Knicks in this position in the first place, including trading New York's 2010 lottery pick in the disastrous Stephon Marbury trade.
Nonetheless, Dolan tried to hire Thomas as a consultant in the offseason, but the league quashed it as a conflict of interest since Thomas is coaching at Florida International. The terrifying possibility remains that Dolan will turn the team back over to Thomas once Walsh's contract ends in 2012, if not sooner.
As for the 2009-10 Knicks, at this point it hardly seems relevant to even mention them. It was, like the famous sitcom based in the Big Apple, a season about nothing. New York was planning on overhauling the roster after the season and pretty much everybody knew it.
Four players from last season's team mattered in the grand scheme. Three youngsters -- Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Toney Douglas -- made solid if unexceptional progress and figure to be part of the team's rotation for the next several years … unless they need to be dangled in a trade for the elusive superstar that can put New York back into contention.
The fourth player was Bill Walker, quietly lifted from Boston in a trade-deadline deal for Nate Robinson. He played well enough late in the season to show potential as a high-scoring sixth man, especially if he can maintain his high shooting percentages from last season.
OPPONENT FG%, 2009-10's WORST
Team 2-Pt FG% FG%
New York 52.5 48.6
Golden State 51.5 48.5
New Orleans 52.0 48.3
New Jersey 50.9 48.1
Detroit 51.5 48.0
NBA avg. 49.2 46.1
The other story from New York's season was -- stop me if you've heard this before -- that D'Antoni's team didn't play any defense. Reportedly, he barely mentioned the word in practice, and it showed on the court. New York ranked last in opponent field goal percentage and opponent 2-point percentage (see chart), finishing 27th in defensive efficiency overall.
The old saying is that no man is an island, but on the Knicks' defense, everybody was. New York was the worst help-defending team in basketball, with Lee the biggest offender. A common occurrence during New York games was three Knicks players standing idly on the weak side while an opposing wing player blew by his man for an uncontested layup.
FEWEST OPP. ASSISTED FGs, 2009-10
Team Pct. of FGs assisted
New York 51.4
San Antonio 52.1
Orlando 52.5
Sacramento 52.6
Phoenix 52.7
NBA avg. 56.4
In a related story, Knicks foes didn't require fancy ball movement in order to score. New York opponents assisted on only 51.4 percent of their baskets, the lowest rate in the league (see chart). Often this is a sign of a good defense that doesn't need to double-team in the post, which is why San Antonio and Orlando placed second and third, respectively. In New York's case, it was a sign of how little regard the Knicks showed for the concept of team defense.
Offensively, the Knicks finished a respectable 15th despite a dreadful year from point guard Chris Duhon, thanks largely to Lee's breakout season. The Knicks shot tons of 3s in D'Antoni's space-it-and-shoot-it system, but not very effectively: New York came in second only to Orlando in 3-point attempts per field goal attempt, with nearly a third of its shots from long range, but it finished a mere 20th in accuracy.
The importance of those numbers, both offensively and defensively, is that those tendencies have stayed with D'Antoni regardless of personnel. One presumes future editions of the Knicks under his hand will remain heavily tilted toward offense and 3-point shooting and away from defense. Alas, his roster doesn't appear to be especially tilted toward the latter, which may limit how well the offense functions.
Offseason Moves
Acquired Amare Stoudemire, five-year, $100 million deal via sign-and-trade with Phoenix. New York was the only team who would guarantee Stoudemire five years given his uninsurable contract, although Dolan somehow thinks it was Thomas who sweet-talked Stoudemire into coming to New York.
Stoudemire will be worth the dough for as long as his knees and retina hold up, although oddly the main difference Knicks fans will see is on defense. Any improvement over Lee on the offensive end is minor, but Stoudemire's mediocre D should nonetheless be a major upgrade on Lee's awfulness at that end. New York also included a conditional second-round pick that the Suns won't receive unless the Knicks achieve a top-five record in 2011-12. Don't count on it.
Let Chris Duhon go, signed Raymond Felton for three years, $21 million. Felton was an unusual signing since he's not a great pick-and-roll player and D'Antoni loves to run the pick-and-roll -- especially with an elite dive man like Stoudemire. Felton is good value in every other respect, however. The dollars are reasonable and only the first two years are guaranteed, which is key to the Knicks being able to cycle back through the free-agent market in 2012. He's also a solid defender and scorer and can push the ball in transition, which D'Antoni likes to do.
Drafted Andy Rautins and Landry Fields. New York surprised observers by taking these two with picks 38 and 39, as many thought they were late second-rounders at best. One presumes the Knicks could have traded down and still procured their rights. Rautins is a shooting specialist while Fields is more of a pure scorer who relies on feel; both are in a good situation given the offensive bent of D'Antoni's tactics.
Purchased rights to Jerome Jordan from Milwaukee. The Knicks paid cash to Milwaukee for the 44th pick, one that changed hands more often in the weeks leading up to the draft than did 19th century New Orleans. Jordan is a solid big-man prospect but will play in Europe this season.
Signed and traded David Lee to Golden State for Anthony Randolph, Ronny Turiaf, Kelenna Azubuike and a 2011 second-round pick. This was an excellent move for the Knicks, allowing them to parlay Lee into a promising young player in Randolph and adding two other players with manageable contracts to preserve the Knicks' cap room in the next two summers.
Turiaf and Azubuike aren't without value. Turiaf is a shot-blocking center who will help one of the league's worst shot-blocking teams (the Knicks rated last in percentage of opponent shots blocked in 2008-09 and 29th last season). His presence should allow Stoudemire to play more minutes at his natural power forward spot. Azubuike is a solid offensive player, but he's coming off a bad knee injury and may not be ready for training camp.
Nonetheless, the plum here is Randolph. An erratic but talented young forward, he's potentially a star; he's also an extraordinary shot-blocker, so between him and Turiaf, the Knicks' deficiency in this department should be a thing of the past.
Signed Timofey Mozgov for three years, $10 million. The 7-foot-1 Russian center is this year's international man of mystery; nobody knew a lot about him entering the summer. His translated European stats aren't great, but his size alone should make him useful if he's willing to throw his body around -- New York has been desperate for a physical big man.
Let Al Harrington, Tracy McGrady, Eddie House and Sergio Rodriguez go. New York had to renounce the rights to several players in order to create its cap space. While Harrington in particular had his moments last season, none of these guys will be terribly missed.
Signed Roger Mason for one year, veteran's minimum. Mason turned in a terrible 2009-10 season but his shooting ability alone makes him a decent risk at this price. He'll provide some insurance for the guard rotation if Azubuike isn't ready.
Biggest Strength: Youth
Don't look know, but New York has quietly built up a pretty good young core. Six Knicks aged 24 or younger should be in this season's rotation; while Randolph seems the only potential star in the group, they all have demonstrated enough ability to be starters someday. The Knicks don't have a key player above age 27 -- Stoudemire, who turns 28 in November, is the old man of the group.
By far the best prospect of the bunch is Randolph, who at just 21 has already proved to be an elite shot-blocker and possesses unusual ballhandling skill for a player his size. In some ways, he's the Knicks' most important performer this season -- his shot-blocking can negate Stoudemire's periodic lapses on D, while his "point forward" skills can offset the lack of passers up and down the roster.
But there's more. Gallinari, 22, had a very promising second season, considering he hardly played in the first one. While he was mainly a 3-point threat, he's hinted at the possibility of expanding his game into that of a true face-up scorer.
The 23-year-old Chandler played out of position last season and likely will have to again this season, which puts a damper on his output. He's not a good outside shooter and he's been forced to play shooting guard. His upside is as a running, athletic small forward, he can occasionally play as a smallball 4. He could prove lethal in such a role if he sharpens his accuracy from outside.
Although Walker, 23, and Douglas, 24, don't rate quite as highly on the prospects list, they put their names on the radar with strong performances late last season. Douglas showed promise as a two-way combo guard who might be ideal as the first guard off the pine, while Walker's natural scoring gifts seem to make him perfect as a go-to scorer with the second unit.
Finally, there's Mozgov, 24, who may not contribute much this season but offers intriguing potential in the middle with his ability to rebound.
The bad news for New York is that this young sextet is going to have to suffice for a long time. With no first-round picks in 2010 or 2012, a likely late first-rounder from Houston in 2011 and 2009 first-rounder Jordan Hill already traded to Houston, there will be no further infusions of youth for some time.
Biggest Weakness: Shooting
For a team built around a floor-spacing offense that generates a lot of 3-point attempts, it's jarring to see how few Knicks can actually shoot. Gallinari is an obvious exception, but last season he was more good than great (38.1 percent), and the other starters simply aren't up to snuff.
The starting shooting guard, for instance, shot 26.7 percent on 3-pointers last season. Newcomer Randolph replaces long-range bomber Harrington in the starting lineup, but Randolph is a shaky outside shooter whom opponents will dare to fire away. The only other halfway decent 3-point threat in the starting lineup is Felton, who shot 38.5 percent from distance last season -- but he did so on only two attempts per game and sits at only 32.7 percent for his career.
As a result, the starting lineup will have one lethal outside shooter and a bunch of players whom opponents will happily allow to launch away. So will D'Antoni, if history is any indication, and the worry is that the Knicks will mirror last season's offense by attempting a ton of 3s but making relatively few of them. If so, any offensive improvement produced by the offseason overhaul is likely to be negligible.
If there's hope to improve those numbers, it comes from the bench, although there are questions there too. Douglas hit 38.9 percent last season but had shaky numbers in college; he'll have to prove last season's performance is his real ability level and not an outlier. The same goes for Walker after his 43.1 percent mark a season ago blew away anything he'd accomplished at Kansas State. Azubuike, a 40.9 percent career shooter, is a question mark not because of performance but injury. Mason -- the likely fifth guard -- has a good career track record but struggled last season. In the frontcourt, there are no long-range floor spacers off the bench, although Turiaf can hit from 15.
Outlook
Despite D'Antoni's inattention to defense, the Knicks are likely to be much better on that end strictly due to the personnel changes. A Stoudemire-Randolph frontcourt is far more imposing than last season's Lee-Harrington combo, and players like Turiaf and Mozgov can come off the pine and do the dirty work everyone shirked a season ago. Additionally, Felton is a quality defender at the point of attack and his likely backup, Douglas, also is very good.
That said, there's a difference between "improved" and "good." New York still doesn't have a wing defender worth his salt and the endeavor remains a low priority organizationally, making it hard to imagine the Knicks climbing out of the league's bottom third in defensive efficiency.
Offensively, any improvement is likely to be marginal. Felton is an upgrade on Duhon, the bench is a little better and the kids will be one year further into their development, but the Stoudemire-Randolph frontcourt will struggle to match the Lee-Harrington combo's output. The offense will likely be better than league average, but not dramatically so.
Fortunately for the Knicks, they play in the East, and that fact alone should permit them to share their first wisp of good news in some time: A playoff berth. It won't be the dramatic renaissance they'd hoped for two years ago when they embarked upon the current strategy, but at this point they'll take moral victories wherever they can find them.
Prediction: 37-45, 3rd in Atlantic Division, 8th in Eastern Conference
Let's try to elevate the level of discourse in this byeetch. Please
9/27/2010 4:55 PM