I created this account years ago but I'm not sure if I ever posted. Most of you don't know me, but TMS and AllanFan might know me as Strider. Yes, gasp. I've been reading stuff on here quite a bit during the offseason and I figured I'd post something since everyone's caught up in the CP3 stuff right now and my opinion is be a little different.
I have my doubts that Paul gets traded at all this season (with two years left on his deal) and I highly doubt he'll be moved before the season. For one, with the emergence of Collison, the Hornets might think they've got a lethal point guard tandem and with a healthy Paul, they could make some noise. They won't, but front offices tend to be optimistic; at least optimistic about their chances of fooling their fans into optimism. Also, teams interested in CP3 might want to see him play a month or so in the regular season and find out if he's fully recovered from the knee surgery. I'd want to see that, too. The Knicks brass should want to see what this group can do and how Felton handles the offense before making such a huge, roster-shaking move. Felton's now out of Larry Brown's bull**** offense and will be allowed to push the rock and create here, so you can expect his numbers to go up. If he can be a 15-point, 8-assist guy -- which is reasonable -- then the bigger area of need would be a dominant scorer. In that case, they'd be better off using their chips on Carmelo. The worst thing would be if they traded for Paul now, a month into the season he's not playing like his 2007-2009 self and they can't get Carmelo because they're cap-screwed with Okafor. Evidence from the last decade makes that possiblity easy to imagine. So although it would create a huge buzz and up the excitement level for opening night, I think the prudent thing would be for the Knicks to wait.
And, really, the more I think about it, the more I lean towards Carmelo. I mean, he at least has some leverage. He can decline the extension and leave after this season. If he's adamant about not re-signing, that puts some pressure on the Nuggets to get something for him this year. The Hornets have Paul on lock for two years, so they don't have to do anything soon. Even if he's unhappy, he's still going to ball. He's their only draw to the arena, so they could milk that for another year then move him in 2011. There's also the longevity factor. Small point guards who rely heavily on speed and quickness usually don't have a long prime. It's like 20 to 29. The guys Paul most compares to are Isiah and Kevin Johnson, and both of them were done at like 32. Paul, at 25, has already had knee problems. Carmelo's game is more about strength and skill than athleticism, so he might be able to maintain his level for longer. If in a few months Carmelo refuses to sign the extension and makes a stink -- pretty much puts himself where Paul is now -- I think he'd be more likely to get moved. I think the Knicks should at least wait to see if that happens, then there'd be a choice of who to pursue. I don't think the Hornets are in a rush to deal Paul, and if they want to make a move, I think the Knicks have the sweetest pot to offer so they might be willing to wait for Walsh.