LeBron James' splash in South Beach has created a ripple effect around the league.Just 48 hours after James' decision on Thursday night, Chris Paul allegedly hinted he could join Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire in New York one day, according to the New York Post. "We'll form our own Big 3," Paul reportedly said at Anthony's wedding in the Big Apple.
Sure, it could have been merely a throwaway comment to get a few laughs with LeBron in attendance. But a year ago, a trio of James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh was nothing more than a comical basketball fantasy, too.
It got us thinking: Would that hypothetical Big Three in New York be the best trio to combat the Miami one?
Probably not, although it may be the most feasible superstar triumvirate outside Miami. Paul finds himself in the middle of an ugly ownership shakeup and could demand a trade in the event that the franchise's focus shifts from winning to trimming. And Anthony? He can opt for free agency next summer should he be curious whether the grass is greener on the East Coast.
But even if Paul, Anthony and Stoudemire did join forces in New York, they wouldn't quite measure up to the Miami trio.
To see why, let's take a look at John Hollinger's estimated wins added metric that quantifies a player's production on a win scale. James, Wade and Bosh combined for 72 wins worth of production last season. No, this doesn't mean they alone would win 72 games; the rules don't allow just three players on a roster, nor would they continue to see the magnitude of alpha-dog touches they enjoyed last year. A slice into their usage would drag that 72-win total down, but only slightly (Hollinger himself sees 61 wins for the Heat next season). And those 72 wins dwarf the win total that Paul, Anthony and Stoudemire produced last season. In fact, the latter three tallied about 30 fewer wins last season for a total of 42.2 victories of combined performance. And even when we sub in Paul's 28.4 EWA from 2008-09 to counteract his injury-shortened 10.9 EWA mark from last season, the Paul-Anthony-Stoudemire trio still falls 12 wins short of Miami's.
Let's step aside from the numeric exercise for a moment and consider the on-court dynamics, which can't be discounted. With Paul running the point, Anthony flanking on the perimeter and Stoudemire anchoring the block, their functions would complement each other better than the Miami trio, which would have James and Wade occasionally overlapping on the wing. But the seamless synergy with Paul-Anthony-Stoudemire probably wouldn't make up the difference, since the quality of the parts still matter when examining the whole, and the versatility of James and Wade will help sort out the perimeter conflicts.
But as long as we're using our wildest imaginations, can we design a more potent three-headed monster than James-Wade-Bosh? Actually, we can.
Employing the star-studded template of a point guard, wing scorer and big man, imagine this triumvirate: Paul, Kevin Durant and Dwight Howard in Oklahoma City. Collectively, again using Paul's 2008-09 injury-free season, this group would edge the Miami trio with a total of 78.7 wins.
The scary thing? Depending on how the new collective bargaining agreement shakes out, it could be a viable scenario down the road. Howard and Paul each control their destiny in the summer of 2012, as they have player options for the 2012-13 season. Should the two opt out of their respective contracts with Orlando and New Orleans, the potential is there for a more powerful union than the one we just witnessed.
To be sure, there's a difference between a plausible scenario and a realistic one. It's hard to imagine Paul and Howard leaving money on the table to make the trio happen; the owners will try to bargain for a harder, lower salary cap in the imminent meetings with the Player's Association. A slice in spending power would all but prohibit Paul and Howard joining Durant in Oklahoma City.
Still, we can dream right? Especially when one just became a reality.
7/14/2010 9:33 AM