I like this take and is realistic...
http://www.rototimes.com/article/2010/5/Offseason-Preview-Knicks
New York Knicks
No team will be watched as closely this summer as the Knicks. After two seasons of simply waiting out bad contracts and trying to clear more and more cap space for this summer, the critical offseason has finally arrived. The city's hopes are tied to signing LeBron James and Chris Bosh, but if the team fails in recruiting the two superstars, there will be some tough decisions to be made. With just four players currently signed for next season, the team will be as active as any in free agency and perhaps in trade talks while trying to fill the many voids on their roster.
Cap situation
$17.8 million committed to 4 players. League salary cap estimated at $56 million for 2010-2011 season. The team holds low salary options of retaining J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker. They also have the option of making a $2.8 million qualifying offer to hold Sergio Rodriguez's restricted rights.
Returning players
Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Toney Douglas, and Eddy Curry. The team will likely retain Bill Walker, as well.
Key free agents
David Lee, Al Harrington, Tracy McGrady, Chris Duhon, Sergio Rodriguez, Eddie House and Jonathan Bender
Draft Picks
The 38th and 39th overall selections.
Five Burning Questions
1) Will LeBron James be a Knick?
There's certainly an improving chance. When the Cavs fell in the second round to the Boston Celtics, it seemed to confirm that James wouldn't be able to bring a championship to Cleveland any time soon. The Knicks have been the rumored frontrunner for his services, but they'll have competition in the Bulls, Heat, Nets, and Clippers. But it's the Knicks that have made it clear over the past two seasons that LeBron is their target and they'll have his ear come July 1. Furthermore, the Knicks can bring in a second max-contract player to help LBJ dominate for the next five seasons. King James would be hard-pressed to find a more lucrative kingdom than New York City and at 25, he could reverse the decade-long misfortunes of this storied franchise.
2) What is the backup plan?
In reality, it's not a lock that the Knicks get even one of James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, or Amar'e Stoudemire. Would they settle for Joe Johnson? Perhaps, but there's a good chance that signing Johnson would continue a long-standing trend of overpaying players. So what happens if they swing and miss with the quick fixes? The team clearly needs a point guard and may consider free-agents Raymond Felton or Luke Ridnour or try and trade for Tony Parker. The team that selects John Wall could also be looking to move a starting point guard, meaning that Devin Harris, Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, Jonny Flynn, Rodney Stuckey, or Beno Udrih may become available. Given their payroll status, the Knicks would not have to match a contract, but would likely have to give up Galinari and/or Chandler. Other free agents that they may pursue (should they lose out on the premier targets) to fill out their roster include: Rudy Gay, Ray Allen, Carlos Boozer, Tyrus Thomas, Mike Miller, or Brendan Haywood. They also could re-sign a number of their own free-agents in Lee, Harrington, Duhon, McGrady or Bender. Even if the team does sign two max-contract players, putting the team close to or overthe salary cap, the Knicks could still re-sign their own free agents thanks to the Bird Rule. They would be unable to sign outside free agents if previous deals put them over the cap.
3) What other players will fill out the roster?
The Knicks don't have a first round pick, but with back-to-back picks in the mid-second round, they should be able to land a couple of nice complementary pieces in a draft that is as deep as any in recent memory. There should be some intriguing international prospects on the board, such as Nemanja Bjelica, Alexey Shved, Miroslav Raduljica and Vladimir Dasic. Among the point guards that could be on the board are Sherron Collins, Armon Johnson, Greivis Vasquez, Mikhail Torrance, and the very intriguing Jerome Randle. The team may gamble on NYC product Lance Stephenson, Jordan Crawford, or Sylvan Landesberg if they feel the need to address their situation at off-guard. However, they will almost certainly draft at least one big man. The best on the board will likely be Jerome Jordan, Artsiom Parakhouski, Gani Lawal, and Brian Zoubek. Aside from the draft picks, the team has their mid-level exception, and that will be put to very good use if the team can sign James and/or another max-player.
4) Will Mike D'Antoni be back next season?
D'Antoni has taken a bullet by manning the sidelines in two seasons in which the Knicks hardly expected to compete. He's also starting to take heat from his former players and the media for allegedly paying very little attention to the defensive end of the floor. He points to the current success of the Magic and Suns for proof that his system can work, but the Knicks would likely cut him the moment that James requests a different coach. In the four seasons prior to signing with the Knicks, D'Antoni's Suns teams averaged 58 wins per season. For every analyst out there that thinks he can coach a championship caliber team, there seems to be two others that say he cannot. It would be a low-blow for the Knicks to let him go after the sacrifices he made in order to come to New York, but it remains a very real possibility.
5) Can this team be active in trade talks as well?
As stated above, thanks to their current low payroll, the Knicks could take on significantly more salary in any move they make...until they start signing free agents. Parker seems to be at the top of their wishlist, but the star point guard and the Spurs deny any possible trade talks. Given the dearth of point guards available in free agency, I would expect the team to seek out a solution via trade, perhaps with the team that lands Wall in the draft. Once again, they would likely have to part ways with Galinari and/or Chandler to bring in a starting point guard.
Ideal Situation: With so many open roster spots and nearly $40 million in cap space, it's very hard to project how this roster will take shape this summer. The one thing we know for sure is that the team is aggressively pursuing James and Bosh and that those two players have expressed an affinity for NYC. The Knicks should also look into retaining their best player and double-double machine David Lee. Thanks to the Larry Bird Rule, they could re-sign him to a rich deal and still add two max-contract free agents - as long as he is the third player to sign. Of course, the team would be over the cap, but the level of talent would likely be worth it. They could then use their mid-level exception on a quality veteran seeking a title. In the draft, I expect them to target both a guard and a big man, and there will be ample players to choose from in the middle of the second round. It's obviously a huge offseason for the Knicks' franchise and one that the team cannot afford to screw up. The possibility remains that if they miss out on the premier 2010 free agents, they may elect to save their millions for next summer when the likes of Parker, Carmelo Anthony, Yao Ming, David West, and Jason Richardson are all set to hit free agency.
Resulting Depth Chart for 2010-11
PG: Luke Ridnour/Toney Douglas/Jerome Randle
SG: Wilson Chandler/Bill Walker
SF: LeBron James/Danilo Gallinari
PF: Chris Bosh/Jonathan Bender
C: David Lee/Jerome Jordan/Eddy Curry
Let's go Knicks. That's amare
