DraftExpressNCAA Weekly Performers, 1/14/10
January 14, 2010
Scott Nadler
You would be hard pressed to find a player putting up better numbers across the board than BYU guard Jimmer Fredette. He has been spectacular this season and is a major reason for the Cougars’ 16-1 start. Although he’s currently battling mononucleosis and has been sidelined 2 of the past 3 games, something we’re surely going to keep our eye on, Fredette is nonetheless one of the best under the radar players in the country and is more than deserving of a mention in this space.
A relative unknown in the college landscape, Fredette made an impression on us already last season, especially during his 23 point, 9 assist performance against then #6 Wake Forest. He’s elevated his level of play so far this year and no game was perhaps more indicative of that then his recent off the charts 49 point barrage against Arizona.
Sporting an extraordinary 31.8 PER in his first 15 games proves that he’s not just a fluke, but a do-it-all guy who is doing just that for a very good nationally ranked team. With stellar numbers and consistent play from the start, we figured this would be a perfect time to evaluate the upstate New York native.
Fredette possesses a strong upper body and at 6-2 and close to 200 lbs, his strength enables him to cover up some of his athletic shortcomings. He’s not exceptionally quick and lacks great explosiveness when attacking the basket, but due to his physique he’s able to shield and bump off pesky defenders which he does a good job of. He’s strong with the ball, but he can afford to improve his overall ball handling skills. He tends to dribble the ball a bit too high and isn’t all that fluid with his handle, something that would likely become more of an issue at the next level.
The one area which needs little improvement is in his ability to shoot the ball. He currently has a true shooting percentage of 64% and the degree of difficulty at which he takes some of his shots makes the high percentage all that more impressive. He can make shots in a variety of ways including spot ups, off the dribble, off screens, fading away, or by pulling up and his smoldering 44.6% from downtown is one of the best percentages in the country - showing on multiple occasions that his range extends well beyond the NBA 3 point line.
He does a good job of getting on balance before he shoots – often coming to a quick jump stop before showing his solid elevation. He makes it difficult on his defender to time his shot as well, transitioning very quickly from the dribble and into his shot.
From the free throw line, he’s automatic, shooting 92.7%, good for 3rd in the country. He also gets there at a good rate – attempting 6.4 free throws a game. Despite the lack of quickness, he finds ways to get into the lane thanks to his tremendous aggressiveness and smarts. Once at the rim, Fredette has good body control and can maneuver his way well in traffic and doesn’t shy away from contact.
As “the man” for the Cougars, Fredette has the ball in his hands for most of his team’s possessions (16.8 a game or 23.7% of his team’s possessions to be exact). With the ball in his hands that often, he has shown a propensity to try to do too much – driving into traffic or splitting screens unnecessarily are just a couple of examples. He averages 3 turnovers a game as a result, and most of turnovers could be avoided as he doesn’t make very difficult passes. Most of his 5.7 assists come from finding shooters spaced out along the perimeter either in the half court or in transition.
Defense is the area of Fredette’s game which needs the most work if he’s to play in the NBA. He’s a below average on the ball defender and lacks the lateral speed to keep up with quick guards. When watching him, it’s easy to see he’s giving a step to his opponent, almost baiting them to shoot and he still struggles to stop dribble penetration. Off the ball, he’s often out of his stance and appears to be resting. He’s a step slow on closeouts, but does make an effort to contest almost all jump shots when isolated on the perimeter.
Fredette isn’t a sure-fire NBA player at this point, but the gaudy numbers he’s putting up and the manner in which he’s producing is surely making scouts and NBA personnel aware of who he is. It’s tough not to like the outstanding skill-level and feel for the game Fredette displays, and the confidence and aggressiveness in which he plays with makes him a difficult guy to bet against.
Only a junior right now, he’d be wise to stick around for another season and try to maximize his athletic potential with a professional over the summer – something that would surely elevate his stock. If he can keep up this torrid pace and if his illness doesn’t affect him for too long, Fredette has the game to make a bigger impression on a national stage come tournament time.
Alan Hahn:
Nate Robinson has been on a ridonkulous scoring tear lately (remember when he couldn't hit Jerome James with a Big Mac in early January?)
3/3/2010 12:07 PM