WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2010

Basketball Prospectus: Pelton: Summer 2010 Preview
It's always nice to have someone provide sound data to back up something I've been railing about for a long time. The projections and comps* for Joe Johnson are not encouraging and could serve as a warning to any team considering paying him a lot of money over the next several years. The SCHOENE projection system** projects Johnson to be less valuable over the next three years than the following fellow free agents...
LeBron James
Dwyane Wade
Chris Bosh
Manu Ginobili
Amare Stoudemire (should he opt out)
David Lee
Rudy Gay
Dirk Nowitzki
Paul Pierce (should he shock everyone and opt out)
Carlos Boozer
Tyrus Thomas
Raymond Felton
Ronnie Brewer
Marcus Camby
Shaquille O'Neal
Brendan Haywood
Pelton:
There are a couple of factors at play here. First, Johnson's statistics have never matched his reputation. Second, players of Johnson's ilk--above-average starting wings--have tended to decline in a hurry in their early 30s. By year three, just two of Johnson's top 10 comparables (Steve Smith and Jalen Rose) were offering their team any kind of value. A max deal for Johnson could end up very ugly.
Now, I don't think Joe Johnson will actually be less valuable than all of those guys but the odds are he will be less valuable than many of them and I think it's unlikely that the value of his performance will not match the cost of his contract before the deal ends (and I think most people agree, though the point at which this is expected to occur is a reasonable matter of debate) should he sign a max or near-max contract.

Which is what makes it a shame both that the Hawks never acquired sufficient assets during Johnson's prime to acquire an equally good or better player to pair with Johnson and that they've put themselves in a cap situation where re-signing Johnson for more money than he can reasonably hope to be worth may be the lesser of two evils.

Joe Johnson turns 29 in four months and five days. He's averaged at least 39.5 minutes per game for each of the last six seasons (during which he missed just 28 games total) and is averaging 37.9 minutes per game so far this season.

Should the Hawks gamble on signing Johnson, getting one more good year out of him and then attempt to trade him before he craters in attempt to rebuild the team as Al Horford's extension eats up most of the cap space the expiration of Jamal Crawford's contract would create?

Or, would they be better off letting another team win the bidding war for Johnson by agreeing to a sign-and-trade with Atlanta, hoping to find a bargain free agent, and (finally) getting something of value for the rights to Josh Childress?

I don't know the answer. This franchise has built a playoff team by making a series of decisions that counter my deepest beliefs about how to build a championship-quality NBA team. Rick Sund may have a plan to extricate the franchise from the corner it's in (and that he largely inherited) that I cannot grasp and it may work perfectly. Or it might not work at all but even that wouldn't mean it was a bad plan, just one I couldn't grasp beforehand. Either way, we're in for a fascinating (and, I predict, a contentious) off-season. It'll be intersting but I can't say I look forward to it.

*I missed this excellent FanPost by YaoPau on Blog-a-Bull two weeks ago that compares Johnson to other big guards in their late 20s and early 30s. It's worth your time.

**Which accurately projected Mike Bibby's ineffectiveness and Josh Smith's resurgence before the season.
Labels: free agency, Hawks, joe johnson

Joe Johnson is already on the decline. Atlanta was smart to offer only a 4 yr extension for 60 million. Do you really want to pay a 35 yr old Joe Johnson 15 million or worse the max? I dont think so.

this whole article is really interesting:
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=945

February 24, 2010
Summer 2010 Preview
The Free Agents

by Kevin Pelton

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Since LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh all signed extensions during the summer of 2006 that allowed them to opt out after three seasons, teams, fans and the media alike have been pointing toward the 2010 free-agent crop as a defining one in the NBA's history. Now, that free agency is just five months away, and moves made by several teams leading up to last Thursday's trade deadline ensured there will be plenty of money to spend. No fewer than seven teams could have enough space to make a maximum or max-type offer--Chicago, the L.A. Clippers, Miami, New Jersey, New York, Sacramento and Washington--while the Heat and Knicks could both potentially fit a pair of max players under the cap.

The question, then, is whether there are enough free agents to go around. More to the point, when those teams don't land a James, a Wade or a Bosh, where will they be looking to spend their money? To help answer that question, I turned to our SCHOENE projection system and a new feature I've been toying with--projecting multiple years into the future using comparable players. This is very much a work in progress, and somewhat problematic because of the uniqueness of many players, but it provides an interesting baseline for what teams can expect from the free agents they'll add this summer.

For 20 of the biggest names on the market, I've projected their value over the upcoming three seasons (2010-11 through 2012-13) using the 10 most similar players based on three-year similarity scores that include this year's performance to date. Going any further out than three years taxes SCHOENE's ability to see into the future. There are simply too many variables that affect player attrition so far down the road. As it is, the projections tend to be awfully conservative for veteran players, especially in the third year.

Those disclaimers out of the way, let's take a look at four key groups of free agents.

1. The Super-Duper-Stars

Player Tm Stat Age 2011 2012 2013 Tot
-----------------------------------------------------------
LeBron James cle UFA 25.3 14.3 17.2 15.9 47.4
Dwyane Wade mia UFA 28.3 14.1 13.0 10.3 37.4
Chris Bosh tor UFA 26.1 13.4 11.4 8.5 33.4
Look, you didn't need any fancy calculation to tell you that James, Wade and Bosh are the top players available. In fact, these projections understate their potential because there are so few players who produce as many WARP as them, meaning they're inevitably compared to inferior players. There are a handful of Bosh cynics out there, and it's instructive to note to them that the difference between his projection and Wade's is relatively small. Bosh is two full years younger and still hasn't necessarily found his peak as a player.

2. The Consolation Prizes

Player Tm Stat Age 2011 2012 2013 Tot
-----------------------------------------------------------
Manu Ginobili sas UFA 32.7 11.6 9.5 5.7 26.7
Amare Stoudemire phx UFA 27.4 6.7 5.9 4.1 16.7
David Lee nyk UFA 27.0 6.3 6.2 4.1 16.6
Rudy Gay mem RFA 23.7 4.7 4.5 5.1 14.3
Dirk Nowitzki dal UFA 31.8 7.1 3.9 2.5 13.5
Paul Pierce bos UFA 32.5 4.3 3.9 3.5 11.7
Carlos Boozer uta UFA 28.4 6.8 3.1 1.0 10.9
Joe Johnson atl UFA 28.8 3.6 2.5 0.9 7.1
Here is where teams that strike out on the first group will be shopping, and the pickings are very much mixed. There are several surprising numbers here, probably none more unexpected than the top player in this group, Manu Ginobili. Outside of the top three players, Ginobili is the only other free agent projected to be worth double-digit WARP next season despite turning 33.

It's a terrible cliché, but it seems entirely apt here: Rumors of Ginobili's demise have been greatly exaggerated. In part, he probably is hurt by a comparison to his own younger self. Ginobili is no longer at that level, but he had plenty of room to take a step back and remain a valuable contributor. Let's compare him to Johnson, for example.

Player Win% WARP TS% Usg Reb% Ast% SB%
---------------------------------------------------------
Ginobili .647 6.3 .555 .243 7.6 7.8 3.7
Johnson .544 5.4 .542 .267 7.3 5.6 1.6
Johnson is known as one of the league's most versatile guards, yet Ginobili has him beat across the board except in terms of the ability to create his own shot. Does that explain why Ginobili is at the top of the group and Johnson the bottom, especially when the latter is four years younger? Not entirely, but in terms of players who could make an immediate impact by changing teams next year, Ginobili belongs in the discussion. I do think SCHOENE is understating Ginobili's riskiness because it does not specifically account for durability and proneness to injury, something that has always been an issue for Ginobili.

As for Johnson, a fine recent fanpost on BlogABull raised concerns about his long-term development using similar players. Even that post, however, was not quite this pessimistic about Johnson. There are a couple of factors at play here. First, Johnson's statistics have never matched his reputation. Second, players of Johnson's ilk--above-average starting wings--have tended to decline in a hurry in their early 30s. By year three, just two of Johnson's top 10 comparables (Steve Smith and Jalen Rose) were offering their team any kind of value. A max deal for Johnson could end up very ugly.

SCHOENE is also especially pessimistic about the group of Carlos Boozer, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce (who is fairly unlikely to opt out of the last year of his contract and become a free agent). Boozer and Nowitzki are similar in that their projections for 2010-11 are pretty solid, but things go downhill quickly from there. In these cases, I'm somewhat less inclined to believe the projections. It should be noted, though, that Nowitzki has taken a clear step back the last couple of seasons, in large part because he is no longer a contributor on the glass. As recently as three years ago, Nowitzki was grabbing 14.7 percent of all available rebounds. This year, that's down to 11.6 percent. The gradual drop can't entirely be blamed on the Mavericks adding Shawn Marion to compete for rebounds with Nowitzki.

Beyond Ginobili, SCHOENE offers an endorsement for David Lee. Lee could be a bargain, offering similar production to some of the bigger names (most notably Amar'e Stoudemire) at a lower cost. Stoudemire's age isn't a concern (despite having played three more seasons than Lee, the two are virtually the same age) but his declining production is. It's amazing that an athlete the likes of Stoudemire would end up with Dino Radja and Christian Laettner as his top two comps, but that's a testament to the conspicuous lack of rebounds and blocks (the usual athleticism markers) in Stoudemire's stat line.

Rudy Gay is probably the single player who benefited the most from last week's cap-clearing frenzy. After James and Wade, he will be the best young wing on the market and would fit neatly in the Clippers' lineup at small forward. Gay isn't a terrible investment, but his numbers indicate secondary option much more than the star he'll likely be paid to be.
3. The Youngsters

Player Tm Stat Age 2011 2012 2013 Tot
-----------------------------------------------------------
Tyrus Thomas cha RFA 23.7 8.5 6.5 7.2 22.2
Raymond Felton cha UFA 25.8 4.6 3.5 4.1 12.2
Ronnie Brewer mem RFA 25.1 4.2 3.4 2.5 10.1
Even four years into his NBA career, Tyrus Thomas' numbers are still dripping with potential. Consider that his top 10 comparables include both Shawn Kemp and Antonio McDyess, along with solid starters like Marcus Camby and Gerald Wallace. But--and with Thomas, there's always a but--his No. 1 comp remains the enigmatic Stromile Swift. That perfectly captures the upside and the risk Thomas brings to the table.

Ronnie Brewer and Raymond Felton are both young enough to still potentially have some growth ahead of them, and they've demonstrated that they are starters in this league. Should the Bobcats get stingy, Felton might be a good fit in Sacramento or paired with another second-tier free agent in place of a max contract (New York, perhaps?). The relatively small gap between Brewer and his new teammate Gay by this method is noteworthy.
4. The Veterans

Player Tm Stat Age 2011 2012 2013 Tot
-----------------------------------------------------------
Marcus Camby por UFA 36.1 5.6 4.7 3.1 13.4
Shaquille O'Neal cle UFA 38.1 4.1 3.4 1.6 9.1
Brendan Haywood dal UFA 30.4 3.9 2.8 1.9 8.7
Tracy McGrady hou UFA 30.9 3.2 1.7 0.3 5.2
Luis Scola hou RFA 30.0 2.7 1.1 0.9 4.7
Ray Allen bos UFA 34.8 2.4 0.0 0.4 2.7
For contending teams looking to make use of their mid-level exception, there are some effective quick fixes available. Marcus Camby and Shaquille O'Neal remain effective centers past the midpoint of their 30s. Note that this method almost certainly overstates Camby's value, especially in the long term, because there are few second-tier centers who maintain their value this long. As a result, Camby gets compared to aging stars like Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson despite relatively low similarity to them.

As for Tracy McGrady, the numbers place him squarely in this group rather than among the consolation prizes. If McGrady was previously hampered by his knee and is now healthy, he has the potential to surpass that projection, but that's an awfully big if. Teams will be watching closely as McGrady starts for the Knicks over the final two months of the season.

Since Luis Scola has spent just three seasons stateside, it's easy to forget that he'll enter his 30s at the end of April. SCHOENE suggests a rapid drop-off, which could leave the Rockets searching for an answer at power forward after trading Carl Landry last week.

Lastly, though he's one of the bigger names on the market, the numbers are very unkind to Ray Allen's future. Reggie Miller will be trotted out as a best-case scenario for Allen, but Miller was basically the only player of Allen's ilk to maintain his value into his late 30s. The next best player in the group was Dale Ellis, who had a strong season as a sharpshooter off the bench for the Seattle SuperSonics in 1997-98 at age 37. Allen may not yet be ready to embrace that kind of limited role. Buyer beware.

Follow Kevin on Twitter at @kpelton.

Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.

That will leave us about $6-$7mm on a PG. I dont know how good Sergio is yet or why he didn play much in Portland. He's very quick and makes very good passes. He over dribbles some and his elevation stinks which hurts him going to the hole, but he's a better shooter than I thought and he can make plays for sure. He's got a tough streak and he could be a good fit. We could afford to sign him doing the above.

That would give us:
PG Sergio
SG JJ (6'7)
SF Gallo (6'10)
PF Lee (6'9)
C Tyrus (6'10)
bench: Douglas/Chandler

Thats our 7 man rotation. Maybe Walker gets in there.

I think that would a pretty good team and a good start. Hopefully you could package Curry's expiring and maybe Chandler or Gallo for a bigtime player around the deadline. Maybe Monta Ellis

MS wrote:I actually want no part of Joe Johnson. The Hawks are good, but not elite. Josh Smith and Al Horford are a handful on the defensive side of the ball and I think the real engine that runs there team. I think going the Rudy Gay route would be better for them and even for us at 10 million.

I'm doing the following. Pick up the option on Sergio. Sign Lee at 9 Sign Haywood at 7. That give you everything you need. Look to add Lebron if not then you can go the Felton/Foye route at the point

Sergio
Chandler
Gallo
Lee
Haywood

I think Lebron would like the front court.

I think Cuban is going to keep Haywood around. They were willing to pay Marcin Gortat. Dampier has knee issues. But I'd love to pair Haywood with Lee or Bosh. You can win with Lee or Bosh at PF IF you put in someone who can defend the rim.

I wouldn't mind Joe Johnson for 4 years even at the max but with all these teams that have cap space there will be plenty of GMs willing to overpay him and their franchises can deal with the consequences if he ends up being super overpaid and old by the 5th 6th years of his deal.