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The age factor
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AnubisADL
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2/23/2010  5:57 PM    LAST EDITED: 2/23/2010  5:59 PM
I mentioned this in another post but wanted to expand on it here.

Joe Johnson 29
Carlos Boozer 29
Dwayne Wade 28
Amare Stoudemire 28
David Lee 27
Lebron James 26
Chris Bosh 26
Rudy Gay 24

Guys who production has fallen off around 27-30.

Stephon Marbury 28
Steve Francis 28
Tracy McGrady 29
Jermaine O'neal 29
Allan Houston 30
Antonio McDyess 27
Alonzo Mourning 29

This is especially prevalent in guys who carried teams for multiple season.

Now of course we have exceptions like Garnett, Allen, Shaq, and Kobe. Kobe had the benefit of playing next to Shaq during his prime and vice versa.

I bring this up because as you can see alot of the guys we are targeting will be on the wrong side of 30 mid way through their deal. We will be contending with young teams in their prime with younger counter parts that were resigned by their clubs.

If we dont get Lebron then we need not consider wasting cash on a 28 yr old unless we are are getting 2 of them.

I'd also like to point out this will be the last big deal alot of those guys get so that 6th yr will be important. I dont see a 33 yr old Wade getting the max.

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loweyecue
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2/23/2010  6:35 PM
Not sure I follow what you are trying to get at? Are you saying 5-6 years of these guys in there prime is not good enough? I mean so what if they don't get max contracts when they are 33, how does that reduce their worth now?
TKF on Melo ::....he is a punk, a jerk, a self absorbed out of shape, self aggrandizing, unprofessional, volume chucking coach killing playoff loser!!
rp
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2/23/2010  6:39 PM
I guess pick up LBJ/Bosh and get 3-4 years is that what you saying?
"Failure is only postponed success as long as courage coaches ambition. The habit of persistence is the habit of victory" -Herbert Kaufman
AnubisADL
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2/23/2010  6:51 PM    LAST EDITED: 2/23/2010  7:04 PM
Sorry if I am not being clear. Im saying if you get Lebron then age is not an issue with the other riskier players. If we miss out on Lebron then signing one of the old guys to a max deal by themselves will be a mistake.

- Wade had knee issues just 2 years ago. Seems guys suddenly get "healthy" during contract years.

- Bosh wears a knee brace.

- Amare micro-fracture surgery

- Guys like Johnson are on the decline and Boozer cant stay healthy.

I just dont want to be strapped down with cap killers. If we cant get Lebron I'd like to get young guys.

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loweyecue
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2/23/2010  6:59 PM
I think you maybe zoning in on the advantage of drafting guys over signing free agents. Whatever free agents we get will have some mileage on them and nothing any one can do about that. But with the likes of Wade/Bosh I think its the advantage of going for a known commodity versus an unknown one. And I don't think any of the top 4 Bron / Bosh / Wade / Amare will sign for anything short of the max. I think you take the risk, get two of them and try to put together a championship run. I think the prevalent thought is none of these guys would sign for more than three years now and will sign another three year extend later to maximize their cash prize. So you basically get a shot at evaluating things 3 years from now anyways. I am not clear on details of how this works, just stuff I read posted on this forum somewhere.
TKF on Melo ::....he is a punk, a jerk, a self absorbed out of shape, self aggrandizing, unprofessional, volume chucking coach killing playoff loser!!
BigDaddyG
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2/23/2010  7:00 PM
I hear what you're saying. But the best way to rebuild through youth is through the draft and well, that ain't happening anytime soon.
Always... always remember: Less is less. More is more. More is better and twice as much is good too. Not enough is bad, and too much is never enough except when it's just about right. - The Tick
AnubisADL
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2/25/2010  7:01 PM
I can’t even blame JO for considering a shutdown at midseason after what I saw last spring, when he valiantly played on the bad knee until it gave out on him. It literally pained me to watch him play. He nearly averaged a triple double when you consider winces per game. No one would have said a word if JO had played the ‘knee card’ and shut her down. But he didn’t do it. He went down bailing water from the Pacers’ sinking ship.

And when you factor in the Arenas situation, in which he caused a setback to his surgically repaired knee by working too hard to return (how unfair is that?), it has to give JO much pause to think he might be doing long-term damage as he plays.

Check out some recent quotes from JO in the Indianapolis Star and draw your own conclusions:

“Over the last two years I've dealt with the knee situation. I tore the meniscus and last year I played, obviously, more than I should have. That took an effect.”

“The fact of the matter of it is, since the surgery I haven't recovered. I shouldn't have started camp when I started, which was the first day.”

“(Playing at) 60 percent may be causing me to shorten my career and beyond that. It could have a major effect on my health. From all the painkillers, the injections, being able to walk. I walk with a limp now at 29 years old because the knee is so irritated in so many different areas.”

“I want to apologize to my teammates, coaching staff and the fans because I know it's important for me to be out there. In order for me to have a shot on getting back to a respectable level that I'm use to playing at, I have to take time off.”

“Taking the nine pain relievers a day has affected me in such a major way, to the point that I had to take a test to see how my liver is holding up. The pain I played with has been extraordinary.”

Please. Enough. Make it stop.

Source: http://www.nba.com/fantasy/features/ltf_20080123.html

We dont need something like this to happen to us. We need to be smart wth our cash this summer and get young HEALTHY players.

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The age factor

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