Point guard crop is weak for 2010 draft
Friday, December 18, 2009 | Print Entry
Posted by Chad Ford
The 2009 NBA draft may go down as one of the greatest point guard drafts of all time. A whopping 12 point guards were picked in the first round, including five in the lottery.
The early returns have been terrific.
Tyreke Evans (drafted No. 4) and Brandon Jennings (No. 10) are in a dead heat for Rookie of the Year honors.
Jonny Flynn (No. 6), Stephen Curry (No. 7) and Ty Lawson (No. 18) are all playing important roles on their teams.
And the rest of the gang, including Jrue Holiday (No. 17), Jeff Teague (No. 19), Eric Maynor (No. 20), Darren Collison (No. 21), Rodrigue Beaubois (No. 25) and Toney Douglas (No. 29) have all shown promise when given the playing time.
And that doesn't even count No. 5 pick Ricky Rubio, who's plying his wares overseas for FC Barcelona.
Next year, though, the results are going to be very, very different. While 2009 may have been one of the best point guard drafts ever, the 2010 draft is shaping up to be one of the worst ever.
We currently have just two point guards, Kentucky's John Wall and Oklahoma's Willie Warren, ranked in our top 30 -- the lowest total we've ever had since we debuted our Big Board in 2002.
Now, the (only) good news. Wall may be one of the best prospects of the decade. While he isn't exactly what scouts would call a "pure" point guard, he has the ability to dominate the position in a way that few have. He's being mentioned in the same breath as Jason Kidd, Chris Paul and Derrick Rose.
Warren is much more problematic. While my colleague Fran Fraschilla is convinced he's a point guard, NBA scouts and GMs aren't nearly as sold. Most of them feel that Warren is more of a combo guard in the mold of Monta Ellis or Rodney Stuckey. They feel Warren dominates the ball too much and looks for his own shot first before trying to set up his teammates. For now we have him listed as a point guard on our Big Board, but that may change as the season progresses.
The rest of the group is pretty slim pickings. NBA scouts have been out in force the past few weeks trying to locate other potential first-round point guards. For the most part, they've been pretty frustrated. Here's a look at a few guys they've found that are intriguing -- though none is a first-round lock at this point.
Pure point guards
Kemba Walker, So., Connecticut
Walker isn't considered an elite prospect. But he has terrific speed, has been shooting it much better with range and put on a performance against Kentucky that boosted his stock tremendously. If he can maintain that level in conference play, he's got a chance to crack the first round.
Sherron Collins, Sr., Kansas
Collins may be the best veteran point guard in the country. He's a terrific leader who knows when to score and when to pass. He has NBA speed and strength. And as a plus, he's cut down on his turnovers and improved his 3-point shooting percentage tremendously this season. However, his NBA draft stock is still a pretty big question mark. Collins is undersized for his position and has struggled mightily over the past three years with conditioning issues. He tends to gain 20 to 30 pounds in the offseason and gets off to slow starts trying to play his way back into shape. He's a definite candidate for the first round, but will probably need to lead Kansas to a title in an effort to secure it.
Armon Johnson, Jr., Nevada
A number of scouts continue to buzz a bit about Johnson. While Luke Babbitt got all of the early NBA attention, it's Johnson who's proven he has the athleticism to play in the league. Whether he has the jump shot and the decision-making skills is another question entirely.
Kalin Lucas, Jr., Michigan State
Scouts continue to be torn on Lucas. He's the consummate unselfish floor leader who cares more about winning than gaudy stats. He plays defense, hits open jumpers and uses his speed to get penetration on the offensive end. However, would he be anything more than a good backup in the NBA? He doesn't do any one thing great and lacks the ideal size to play the 1.
Matthew Dellavedova, Fr., St. Mary's
Dellavedova probably won't enter the draft this year. But if he does, NBA executives would be sorely tempted to take him in the first round. Of all the prospects on the list, Dellavedova has the most NBA upside. He has great size, terrific court vision and is very, very tough. Questions about his speed and athleticism, along with his relative inexperience, currently keep him out of our top 30. But he's the type of player who has a lot of room to rise on our Big Board.
Others to watch: Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech; Eric Bledsoe, Kentucky; Abdul Gaddy, Washington; Corey Fisher, Villanova; J'Covan Brown, Texas.
Combo guards
Avery Bradley, Fr., Texas
Bradley, not Wall, was ranked by Scouts Inc. as the best incoming freshman in the country. I think that debate is now over given Wall's terrific play. However, it also points to Bradley's tremendous upside. He's an extremely quick and explosive combo guard who is already a terror on the defensive end of the floor. He's far from a traditional point guard, though. He's much better finding his own shot than creating for others. He got off to a slow start at Texas, but the past three games he's really started to come on. Scouts will be watching him closely in a pair of key matchups -- Saturday against North Carolina followed by Michigan State on Tuesday. If Bradley performs well in both of those games, his stock will quickly rise.
Terrico White, So., Mississippi
When Mississippi point guard Chris Warren went down with an injury last season, White stepped in and played the point and impressed a number of scouts. Now Warren is back and White has moved to the 2. However, some scouts still feel he could be a big point guard in the pros in the mold of someone like Tyreke Evans.
Malcolm Lee, So., UCLA
Lee had a lot of early season buzz, but most of that's disappeared thanks to a horrendous start by the Bruins. Lee has played both backcourt positions this season, though it appears he's a little more comfortable hunting for his own shot than creating for others. Scouts are always intrigued by 6-foot-5 athletes who can play some PG -- but right now he looks like he might be a Jamal Crawford clone.
Elliot Williams, So., Memphis
Williams has stepped up and made an immediate impact at Memphis. In fact, you could argue he's been the most consistent player in the country this year. Williams has scored between 19 and 23 points in every contest for the Tigers this season. While scouts are acknowledging his speed and knack for scoring, they're not sold that he's a point guard either. He may need another year at Memphis to prove them wrong.
Tyshawn Taylor, So., Kansas
Taylor impressed with his play as a freshman at Kansas and then again this summer for Team USA, but his performance has dropped off a bit from there. He plays alongside Collins in the Jayhawks' backcourt and doesn't get to run the offense much. Lately coach Bill Self has been using him in a reserve role and he really shined in KU's last game against La Salle. NBA teams love his speed and defensive presence, but he has really lacked the opportunity to show he can be a full-time point guard in the pros.
Others to watch: Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech; Jeremy Lin, Harvard; Matt Bouldin, Gonzaga; Kenny Boynton Jr., Florida; Nolan Smith, Duke; Jon Scheyer, Duke; Mark Payne, UC Davis; Isaiah Thomas, Washington; Scottie Reynolds, Villanova; A.J. Slaughter, Western Kentucky; Carl Ona Embo, France
The midrange game
# The drought of point guards in this year's draft has led to some consternation among a handful of GMs. Why? Because their scouting staffs didn't alert them to that fact before last year's draft, which could have affected their strategy.
"I know we all say that we draft on talent, not on position, but that's only partly true," one GM told ESPN.com. "Last year we needed to fill a number of holes and ended up passing on all of the point guards. Had we known there wouldn't be any point guard talent in the '10 draft, I think we would've done things differently this summer."
A number of teams failed to snag a point guard high up in last year's draft.
The most egregious case was the Knicks. The Knicks had the No. 8 pick in the draft and passed on the likes of Jennings and Lawson for power forward Jordan Hill despite the fact the team already had a number of players at the 4 and had just one point guard, Chris Duhon. The Knicks made up for that somewhat by taking Douglas late in the first, but Douglas isn't as talented as Jennings or Lawson.
# Speaking of point guards, no senior point guard is having a better season than Duke's Jon Scheyer. He's sporting a ridiculous 6.4-1 assist to turnover ratio and averaging a very efficient 18 points per game. In his last game, against Gardner-Webb, he put up the most ridiculous line of the week: 36 points, 9 assists, 8 rebounds and 7-for-9 shooting from beyond the arc.
At 6-5, Scheyer has great size for his position, has a superior basketball IQ, is a dead-eye shooter from long range and is a true leader on the floor. So why isn't he in the conversation for a first-round pick?
I spoke with a number of NBA scouts and executives about Scheyer. While all of them like him, none was convinced he could make it in the NBA. Why? Position and athleticism. While Scheyer is good about bringing the ball up the floor and initiating Duke's offense, a number of scouts aren't impressed with his ability to create off the dribble. "He basically becomes Duke's 2-guard once the offense gets set," one said.
More importantly, scouts are worried about Scheyer's lack of elite athleticism. His lateral quickness has especially been questioned. "I'm just not sure who he guards at the next level. He's not guarding Brandon Jennings or Tyreke Evans. I don't think he has the quickness to guard 1s or 2s."
Scouts also point out the Scheyer's shooting touch tends to leave him when matched up against quick, athletic guards who can recover rapidly. This year is no exception. In Duke's three games against UConn, Wisconsin and St. John's, Scheyer shot a combined 4-for-19 from 3.
Still, we're taking a wait-and-see attitude. Scheyer has gotten better each year and is putting up big numbers at a high-profile program. Those types of players tend to rise late in the draft. So while he hasn't cracked our top 60, we're keeping our eye on him.
# On Tuesday we broke down a number of elite freshmen who are having a big impact this season. We'd be remiss if we didn't point out someone we inadvertently left off the list -- Marshall's Hassan Whiteside.
Whiteside was a lightly recruited big man out of North Carolina. However, he's been dominant in the early going for Marshall. The freshman is averaging 12 points, 9 rebounds and 5 blocks per game in his first nine games. He put up a triple-double on Brescia on Wednesday night, scoring 17 points, grabbing 14 rebounds and blocking 11 shots. He nearly had a another one against Ohio: 14 points, 17 rebounds, 9 blocks.
Whiteside clearly has the physical tools to be a big-time center. He is an explosive leaper, has an enormous wingspan and is very quick. He needs to add strength and polish to his offensive game, but scouts are quickly taking notice.
You can expect scouts to be out in force Dec. 22, when Marshall hosts North Carolina. If Whiteside can put up big numbers against Ed Davis, he could rocket up the board.
Alan Hahn:
Nate Robinson has been on a ridonkulous scoring tear lately (remember when he couldn't hit Jerome James with a Big Mac in early January?)
12/29/2009 8:03 AM