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Some interesting notes taken while using Hollinger's team analysis
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JCHAN
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12/24/2009  6:00 AM
Quick name the first thing that comes to mind when you think of what kills the Knicks game in game out.

Too many 3's? We're a solid 12th in eFG

Crummy offense? 18th in the league in offensive efficiency and we're right around the league average (which is brought down substantially by NJ)

Turnovers? Actually have the 10th best turnover rate.


Things that do kill us:

Poor defense? We give up 2 more points 100 possessions than the league average, so this is a good choice. Are we getting better?

Rebounding? 28th in the league, ouch!! Though surprisingly we have the 11th best defensive rebounding rate. However, we also have the 29th worst offensive rebounding rate. While DLee has been beasting the defensive boards, him playing perimeter gives us no threat to gather any offensive boards.

I suppose it's these reasons that the last ~12 games are so encouraging. We're done so much better on the defense and rebounding. We were close or winning in rebounding in almost all of those games.

AUTOADVERT
djsunyc
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12/24/2009  9:23 AM
imho, hollinger has added absolutely nothing to basketball...
fishmike
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12/24/2009  9:52 AM
djsunyc wrote:imho, hollinger has added absolutely nothing to basketball...
the thing that makes BB great in my opinion is the randomness, the split second improvisation and the scoring runs. You start crunching these #s and you try to analize a sport while disregarding what makes it great. Its crap for the #s nerds and guys who would rather look at #s then game footage.

Totally agree w/ DJ

"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
VDesai
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12/24/2009  9:59 AM
I think what maybe needs to be tweaked in his stats is to account for some kind of variance. When you shoot as many 3's as the Knicks do there's so much of a game to game variance that 82 games really doesn't even qualify as the "long run"
nixluva
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12/24/2009  10:22 AM
I like his stats as reference points. Oh and by the way MATH is the language of the Universe:). almost Everything can be expressed as a mathematicl equation you just need to find the right variables to plug in.
You can track trends and refute myths and misperceptions. People keep bringing up cliches about what this team does wrong or MDA's system and the numbers prove them wrong.
OldFan
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12/24/2009  10:24 AM
fishmike wrote:
djsunyc wrote:imho, hollinger has added absolutely nothing to basketball...
the thing that makes BB great in my opinion is the randomness, the split second improvisation and the scoring runs. You start crunching these #s and you try to analize a sport while disregarding what makes it great. Its crap for the #s nerds and guys who would rather look at #s then game footage.

Totally agree w/ DJ

Don't see why you can't do both. The fun of basketball is watching but it doesn't mean statistics can't help in understanding why teams win and lose.

fishmike
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12/24/2009  10:31 AM
nixluva wrote:I like his stats as reference points. Oh and by the way MATH is the language of the Universe:). almost Everything can be expressed as a mathematicl equation you just need to find the right variables to plug in.
You can track trends and refute myths and misperceptions. People keep bringing up cliches about what this team does wrong or MDA's system and the numbers prove them wrong.

haha... math is the universal language yet it cant explain everything and therefore means very little. Basketball, like the natural world cant be expressed in math, and cant be predicted with math. Organic is just that.. organic. Math is suitable for all thing non biological. Once you intoduce life you introduce chaos. Anyone thats had kids knows this! You can track tendencies but as the old saying goes.. you never know and thats why they play the games.
"winning is more fun... then fun is fun" -Thibs
djsunyc
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12/24/2009  10:33 AM
OldFan wrote:
fishmike wrote:
djsunyc wrote:imho, hollinger has added absolutely nothing to basketball...
the thing that makes BB great in my opinion is the randomness, the split second improvisation and the scoring runs. You start crunching these #s and you try to analize a sport while disregarding what makes it great. Its crap for the #s nerds and guys who would rather look at #s then game footage.

Totally agree w/ DJ

Don't see why you can't do both. The fun of basketball is watching but it doesn't mean statistics can't help in understanding why teams win and lose.

hollinger uses stats to compare players and say why one player is better than another...when a player's role and impact in a game is reliant on so many factors like teammates, coach, system, division, conference, schedule, etc...

using it as a reference, i can see, but his over anal-ysis of stats is being used to form final conclusions...which i think is trivial.

VDesai
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12/24/2009  10:41 AM
I dont think Hollinger is the next Bill James, but every so often he has something interesting stay. I think there are better stat guys- Kevin Pelton, the guys at 82games, that have produced a lot of stats that have quite a bit of value.

The proof is in the pudding- Darryl Morey, the Houston GM is a huge stathead and has constructed his team around that kind of analysis. The fact that they've played well without Yao/McGrady with the role players he has chosen show's there's some value to using this.

Its the kind of thing that takes quite a bit of time to reach popular consumption. Just look at baseball. What was laughed of as geekery years ago is no quoted regularly on ESPN- and one of the most successful franchises- THe Boston Red Sox rely heavily on Bill James' work to build their team. And they've won quite a few championships in this decade.

loweyecue
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12/24/2009  10:45 AM
Fish, math can allow for randomness as well. Its not the math that is bad but very often how its applied. It is possible to use math and still allow for a large degree of randomness and variability.
TKF on Melo ::....he is a punk, a jerk, a self absorbed out of shape, self aggrandizing, unprofessional, volume chucking coach killing playoff loser!!
nixluva
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12/24/2009  10:55 AM
fishmike wrote:
nixluva wrote:I like his stats as reference points. Oh and by the way MATH is the language of the Universe:). almost Everything can be expressed as a mathematicl equation you just need to find the right variables to plug in.
You can track trends and refute myths and misperceptions. People keep bringing up cliches about what this team does wrong or MDA's system and the numbers prove them wrong.

haha... math is the universal language yet it cant explain everything and therefore means very little. Basketball, like the natural world cant be expressed in math, and cant be predicted with math. Organic is just that.. organic. Math is suitable for all thing non biological. Once you intoduce life you introduce chaos. Anyone thats had kids knows this! You can track tendencies but as the old saying goes.. you never know and thats why they play the games.

Actually you're wrong! Eventually everything will be expressed mathematically it's only a matter of time. Even randomization can be calculated and expressed. The point isn't that we try to reduce everything to numbers but that it's another tool to track progress or compare which helps.

The unusual way MDA has his teams play often needs to be made clearer by a closer look at the numbers. When I was trying to explain that MDA does have a defensive system but it's as unorthodox as his offense. I was saying how characteristics of his teams are low assists allowed and lots of steals. We've seen the numbers for this team follow that same line.

nixluva
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12/24/2009  10:57 AM
fishmike wrote:
nixluva wrote:I like his stats as reference points. Oh and by the way MATH is the language of the Universe:). almost Everything can be expressed as a mathematicl equation you just need to find the right variables to plug in.
You can track trends and refute myths and misperceptions. People keep bringing up cliches about what this team does wrong or MDA's system and the numbers prove them wrong.

haha... math is the universal language yet it cant explain everything and therefore means very little. Basketball, like the natural world cant be expressed in math, and cant be predicted with math. Organic is just that.. organic. Math is suitable for all thing non biological. Once you intoduce life you introduce chaos. Anyone thats had kids knows this! You can track tendencies but as the old saying goes.. you never know and thats why they play the games.

Actually you're wrong! Eventually everything will be expressed mathematically it's only a matter of time. Even randomization can be calculated and expressed. The point isn't that we try to reduce everything to numbers but that it's another tool to track progress or compare which helps.

The unusual way MDA has his teams play often needs to be made clearer by a closer look at the numbers. When I was trying to explain that MDA does have a defensive system but it's as unorthodox as his offense. I was saying how characteristics of his teams are low assists allowed and lots of steals. We've seen the numbers for this team follow that same line.

JCHAN
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12/24/2009  1:19 PM
Hollinger didn't say any of this stuff. He just had the stats posted, I interpreted it myself. I'm not sure Hollinger invented things like rebound rate and offensive efficiency. We have randomness, but it comes to no surprise we're a bad offensive rebounding team and the numbers back it up etc.
arkrud
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12/24/2009  2:01 PM
nixluva wrote:
fishmike wrote:
nixluva wrote:I like his stats as reference points. Oh and by the way MATH is the language of the Universe:). almost Everything can be expressed as a mathematicl equation you just need to find the right variables to plug in.
You can track trends and refute myths and misperceptions. People keep bringing up cliches about what this team does wrong or MDA's system and the numbers prove them wrong.

haha... math is the universal language yet it cant explain everything and therefore means very little. Basketball, like the natural world cant be expressed in math, and cant be predicted with math. Organic is just that.. organic. Math is suitable for all thing non biological. Once you intoduce life you introduce chaos. Anyone thats had kids knows this! You can track tendencies but as the old saying goes.. you never know and thats why they play the games.

Actually you're wrong! Eventually everything will be expressed mathematically it's only a matter of time. Even randomization can be calculated and expressed. The point isn't that we try to reduce everything to numbers but that it's another tool to track progress or compare which helps.

The unusual way MDA has his teams play often needs to be made clearer by a closer look at the numbers. When I was trying to explain that MDA does have a defensive system but it's as unorthodox as his offense. I was saying how characteristics of his teams are low assists allowed and lots of steals. We've seen the numbers for this team follow that same line.

And Futurama is the greatest prove to this...

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." Hamlet
JrZyHuStLa
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12/24/2009  2:02 PM
djsunyc wrote:imho, hollinger has added absolutely nothing to basketball...

I agree 100%.

Some interesting notes taken while using Hollinger's team analysis

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