HOOPSWORLD
NBA AM: Time To Pack?
By: Steve Kyler Last Updated: 11/25/09 10:47 AM ET | 2540 times read
Time To Pack: With the NBA trade deadline approaching, and teams starting to get a real feel for who they are going to be at the 20-game mark there are a few players who should be ready to hear the rumors, and a few more who should start packing for a move to another team in the coming weeks:
David Lee: The Knicks are going nowhere fast, and word from within the team is the locker room is toxic and there is a general "me-first" attitude, and it seems David Lee may not be in head coach Mike D'Antoni's long term plans.
The Knicks were extremely smart in inking Lee to a one-year deal because he is extremely moveable next summer in a sign and trade deal without being a Base Year Compensation player (something he is this year). Lee cannot return the full $7 million he's owed in trade now as the Knicks can only take back 50% of his salary. As a $7 million ending contract, Lee could fetch a better trade asset or be the sweetener to get a longer term contract like Eddy Curry or Jared Jefferies off the book in New York.
Odds of him being moved before the deadline: 60/40
(Note: David Lee, as a player signed to a one-year contract and having his Bird Rights, can also veto a trade if he doesn't like it.)
Monta Ellis: Monta hung 37 points on the Mavericks last night and is clearly the focal point of the Warriors offense; that said he's not happy in Golden State and as long as the Warriors are sticking with Don Nelson, Monta wants out.
He hasn't pulled a Stephen Jackson "demand," but its clear Monta and his agent are pushing for a move and several league sources say Nelson wants to see the move happen as well.
Ellis could return a far better asset than Jackson, who had a terrible contract. The Warriors are not giving Monta away, but if he keeps scoring like he has so far this season the list of teams that would seriously consider him is likely going up.
Odds of him being moved before the deadline: 60/40
Tyrus Thomas: The Bulls should get Thomas back in the next couple of weeks. Thomas broke his arm during a weight training session and has missed nine games so far.
Thomas unfortunately may never become the player he could be in Chicago for a number of reasons. The Bulls have made it clear they plan to be free agent players next summer, meaning Tyrus could see his rights renounced in order to clear space.
The Bulls publicly say they are commitment to Tyrus long term, but league sources say with Taj Gibson playing well in Thomas' absence and the general malaise surrounding Tyrus and head coach Vinny Del Negro, it is almost inevitable Tyrus gets shopped and ultimately moved.
Like the Warriors, Chicago is not giving Tyrus away, they will want real value for Thomas and the next month or so will really establish Tyrus' future in Chicago, if he plays lights out like Joakim Noah has, he'll be a Bull long-term, if he's inconsistent he may see the door.
Odds of him being moved before the deadline: 60/40
Caron Butler: Supposedly Wizards' guards Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas have talked through their differences. That doesn't mean Washington, who sits at 4-9 on the season are going to stay married to this roster.
League sources say the only tradeable assets the Wizards really have is Caron Butler and given the rift between he and the unmovable Gilbert Arenas, Butler is the odd man out.
The Wizards have a payroll north of $79 million, just shy of the NBA luxury tax threshold. If things for the Wizards do not improve in December, you can expect the team is going to try and make a change and Butler is the best chip they have to move.
Odds of him being moved before the deadline: 60/40
Tracy McGrady: Tracy doesn't trust the Rockets and the Rockets don't trust Tracy. There is no long-term future for McGrady in Houston and its clear Tracy may not be on the same page as head coach Rick Adelman.
The Knicks rumors are not baseless; they simply are not where the Rockets are leaning right now. Once Tracy returns to action and proves he still has top-tier ability teams may be more open to giving up real assets for McGrady - right now Houston has been offered junk and bad contracts. A team that might have interest in re-signing Tracy next summer, at a reduced rate of course, might be willing to give up a real asset if they see Tracy playing at a high level again.
The Rockets will not be significant free agent players in the summer of 2010, so landing some assets for McGrady now might be the best course for Houston. They are in absolutely no rush to make a bad deal, and they know that Tracy has a lot to play for.
December will be the month for McGrady. If he plays well and meshes in with his team he may survive the trade deadline, but if he struggles or slows down the progress Houston is making he's likely the easiest player to move.
Odds of him being moved before the deadline: 80/20
There are always other names to mention, the list above are the players most likely moved.
The 20-game mark is always the barometer for NBA teams; you tend to have played enough games to know who you are and where you fit into the grand scheme of the season. The 20-game mark is typically where you see teams embrace the need for change, until then, we'll just have to wait out the schedule.