The problem with predraft scouting reports—in basketball, and in any sport, really—is that they’re very often wrong. Take the 2009 draft class, for example, which was supposed to be a weak crop. Already, though, we’ve seen some emerging stars, as well as an impressive array of guys who fell late into the draft but have since proven themselves.

“I never bought into that,” said Bucks rookie Brandon Jennings(notes). “I know people were saying it was a weak draft, but I don’t know why. I’ve been playing against some of these guys for a while, and there are some good players who are rookies.”

The problem with predraft scou…

SportingNews.com - Nov 19, 11:12 am EST NBA Gallery Jennings, of course, should know. Back on draft night, he was so unsure of his status that he opted out of the NBA’s green room invitation. The Bucks wound up taking him with the 10th pick, a risky move at the time. It’s paid off.

“I don’t think there’s any question that, right now, he is Rookie of the Year,” Dallas coach Rick Carlisle said of Jennings. “My hat’s off to (Bucks general manager) John Hammond for having the onions to take him, because nobody else was going to take him that high.”

It hasn’t just been Jennings, though. Other top 20 picks are already proving scouts wrong. And, just as impressive, some rooks who had to sweat out draft night—the ones who went 25th or later—also are immediately contributing and showing how deep this draft really was.

TOP 20 GEMS

1. Brandon Jennings, PG, Bucks. Pick: 10. Stats: 24.8 points, 5.8 assists, 55.8 percent 3-point shooting.
How the scouting report was wrong: Jennings was supposed to be immature, not ready to lead a team and unable to make shots. Instead, even at age 20, he has proven to be a tough-minded leader who has been able to knock down both 3-pointers and mid-range jumpers with regularity. “He’s just been unbelievable,” teammate Andrew Bogut(notes) said. “At his age, his feel for the game is just great. He just knows when to take over the game when we need it.”

2. Jonny Flynn(notes), PG, Timberwolves. Pick: 6. Stats: 13.8 points, 3.2 assists.
How the scouting report was wrong: Scouts were right about Flynn’s suspect long-range shot, but concerns about his size (he measured just over 5-11 in the predraft combine) were unfounded. Flynn is very quick, with a great first step, and can get to the rim easily. He is a good leaper, which helps him to overcome his height and finish well near the rim.

3. Ty Lawson(notes), PG, Nuggets. Pick: 18. Stats: 9.7 points, 3.4 assists, 51.9 percent shooting.
How the scouting report was wrong: The book on Lawson was a common one for young point guards—he can handle the ball, but he can’t shoot. Starting with the season opener, in which he went 7-for-13 from the field, and clear through a 23-point, 9-for-10 performance in early November, Lawson has been on target all year.

4. Tyreke Evans(notes), PG, Kings. Pick: 4. Stats: 17.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists.
How the scouting report was wrong: The big concern about Evans was his position. He dabbled as a point guard, with some success, at Memphis, but most scouts thought he was not enough of a playmaker to succeed in the NBA. Evans shouldn’t play the point in the NBA, but only because he is such a potent scorer. He needs to get more accurate with his shooting, but he has shown as much raw ability as any rookie.

5. Stephen Curry(notes), G, Warriors. Pick: 7. Stats: 9.3 points, 4.9 assists, 40.0 percent 3-point shooting.
How the scouting report was wrong: Curry was supposed to lack the explosiveness, athleticism and playmaking to play the point in the NBA, but he has had little trouble freeing himself for shots and getting the ball to teammates. “Sometimes he should be a little more aggressive,” Warriors forward Corey Maggette(notes) said. “He can pass the ball, but we all know he can shoot, too.”

HIDDEN GEMS

1. Chase Budinger(notes), SF, Rockets. Pick: 44. Stats: 8.6 points, 3.4 rebounds.
How the scouting report was wrong: Budinger’s biggest sin heading into the draft was probably that he never lived up to the heavy billing he was given by Arizona. Thus, scouts wondered whether he had a toughness/work ethic problem. Budinger still needs consistency with his shot, but after watching him fight guys like Dirk Nowtizki and Ron Artest(notes) for rebounds, he’s shown he’s tough enough.

2. DeJuan Blair(notes), PF, Spurs. Pick: 37. Stats: 6.1 points, 5.9 rebounds.
How the scouting report was wrong: Blair was supposed to go in the top 20, perhaps even in the lottery. But concerns about his health (knee) and his height (6-7) scared off too many teams, and he slid to the second round. “What can I do about that now?” Blair said. “I am a Spur. And I am happy to be a Spur. I am not going to worry about what all the other teams thought of me.” There’s no telling how Blair’s health will pan out, but his height has not been a problem—he is second among rookies in rebounding.

3. Taj Gibson(notes), F, Bulls. Pick: 26. Stats: 7.2 points, 4.6 rebounds.
How the scouting report was wrong: Scouts didn’t feel that Gibson had much offensive potential, and they’re right on that count. But there were questions, too, about whether Gibson had the bulk to rebound and defend. “He’s very tough in there,” teammate Brad Miller(notes) said. “He’s strong. He came into the league ready to play.”

4. Rodrigue Beaubois(notes), PG, Mavericks. Pick: 25. Stats: 7.6 points, 59.5 percent shooting.
How the scouting report was wrong: Beaubois was an unknown who was supposed to be too raw to contribute. Injuries have forced him into the rotation, and he has responded by attacking the basket and playing solid defense. “Beaubois brings a different kind of athleticism and feel for the game,” Carlisle said. “He has done a lot of extra work with Jason Kidd(notes), that has been great for the kid. And we need him.”

5. Toney Douglas(notes), SG, Knicks. Pick: 29. Stats: 8.8 points, 50.0 percent shooting.
How the scouting report was wrong: Douglas is a shooting guard in a point guard’s body, as scouts feared. But there were other fears with Douglas—that he wouldn’t be explosive enough to finish at the rim and that his outside game wasn’t good enough. Douglas, though, has been an effective scorer and sparkplug. “He’s been playing his butt off in practice,” Knicks forward David Lee(notes) said. “The first thing Toney does is he comes with a lot of energy. Along with that, he is willing to learn. So that’s a pretty good combination.”