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Eurocamp: NBA teams on the lookout
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Ford By Chad Ford
ESPN.com
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TREVISO, Italy -- The 2009 Reebok Eurocamp gets underway this weekend. And an unusually high number of NBA GMs and executives are attending this year's camp all with the same mission: find the next international man of mystery.

In years past, there has been plenty of talent at the Eurocamp. Andrea Bargnani, Danilo Gallinari, Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, Johan Petro and Marcin Gortat are all alumni of the annual camp run by Timberwolves international scout Pete Philo.

In total, 36 players have been drafted from the camp in the past six years. Twelve have been selected in the first round and 16 of the 36 have gone on to play in the league. Those are much better stats than the NBA's first American draft camp, the Portsmouth Invitational, can sport.

This year, the mood is a bit dampened by news that Brandon Jennings has pulled out of the camp at the last minute. A number of teams were traveling especially to get a closer look at the American phenom who passed on the NCAA to play pro ball in Italy last season.

But even without Jennings, the camp is filled with talent. Australian point guard Patrick Mills, who gave Team USA fits in the Olympics, is the headliner. Former Arkansas guard Patrick Beverley, who played in the Ukraine last season, is also here.

In addition, a number of top international prospects are scheduled to attend, including Jonas Jerebko, Joe Ingles, Henk Norel, Vladimir Dasic, Milan Macvan, Milenko Tepic, Rodrigue Beaubois, Vyacheslav Kravtsov, Daniel Hackett, Aboubakar Zaki, Ludovic Vaty, Artem Zabelin, Carl Ona Embo, Nemanja Aleksandrov and Rudy Mbemba. They are all potential second-round picks, while a few -- like Mills, Beverley, Jerebko, Ingles and Macvan -- have a shot at the first round.

But despite the camp's stellar reputation, more teams seem to be casting a wary eye toward Europe these days. While international players continue to find some success coming up through the college ranks, the leap from international ball straight to the NBA has been rocky of late. The international revolution that started in 1997 seems to be fizzling.

In 1997, a then-record 12 international players were taken in the draft. It was the first time international players had constituted double-digits in the draft. And in 1998, Dirk Nowitzki became the first international player to be drafted in the top 10.

Then, the NBA hit another milestone in 2000, when a record seven international players went in the first round and a total of 14 were drafted. The next year Pau Gasol became the first international player to be taken in the Top 5. And in 2002, Yao Ming became the first international player ever to go No. 1.

Next, in 2003, a record 21 international players (more than a third of the draft) were drafted, with nine going in the first round. In 2004, another 20 international players were taken in the draft.

However, after a number of the players picked in the 2003 and 2004 drafts struggled, the trend began to reverse itself in 2005. Only 14 international players were drafted that year and only four of them cracked the first round.

In 2006, the number rebounded to 16 and Bargnani became the second international player to go No. 1 overall. But in 2007, the number dipped to 12 international players, the lowest since 2001.

And last year the number dipped even lower, with just 11 international players drafted and only four in the first round -- on par with the 1999 draft.

This year things look even grimmer. Currently just one international player, Ricky Rubio, is a lock for the first round.

Arguments about the better fundamentals, higher basketball IQ and a purer form of basketball in Europe have all faded. Basketball talent hot spots like Serbia, Croatia, Argentina and China have virtually dried up.

On the other hand, just as the NBA seems to be shying away from drafting international players, more players are choosing the money, security and playing time an international team can offer. International players like Fran Vazquez have said no to the NBA. Even Americans are getting into the act -- Josh Childress bolted the NBA for Greece last year and Brandon Jennings skipped out on playing college ball at Arizona to play in Italy. Most recently, Nick Calathes gave up a chance to play in the NBA this coming season when he signed a three-year deal in Greece a month before the NBA draft.

What happened to the international invasion?

"It's still there," Pistons international scout Tony Ronzone said. "But I don't think there's any question that we strip-mined Europe for a few years. We took guys who were too young and put them in positions where it was difficult to succeed. I think that's made NBA teams wary of young international players and I think they're wary of us."

Ronzone knows firsthand. It was the Pistons who drafted the poster child for the excesses of the international frenzy -- Darko Milicic. I was with Ronzone in Europe for several scouting trips that year and got a front-row seat to the frenzy. In fact, I was swept into it, too. It was a beautiful thing to see 18-year-old, fundamentally-sound 7-footers swishing 3-pointers and doing crossovers in an empty gym.

Everyone wanted to believe that there was a land of Dirk Nowitzkis and Toni Kukocs just waiting to be tapped into. If a player was big, could shoot and had a pulse, he was suddenly a prospect.

Milicic wasn't the only high-profile bust of the movement. Nikoloz Tskitishvili was drafted ahead of Amare Stoudemire in 2002. And in 2004, Pavel Podkolzine went ahead of Kevin Martin and Delonte West.

But 2005 was an especially low point. The Magic drafted Vazquez with the No. 11 pick only to watch him refuse to come to the NBA. And the Clippers, drafting at No. 12, took Yaroslav Korolev -- a player Clips coach Mike Dunleavy fell in love with in a two-day juniors tournament at the Euroleague Final Four in Moscow -- over Danny Granger.

Names like Darko, Skita, Pavel and Vazquez are now whispered as cautionary tales about the dangers of over-scouting Europe. But the question remains, has it really been that bad?

Milicic was a bust in 2003. But Leandro Barbosa, Boris Diaw, Mickael Pietrus and Sasha Pavlovic were also drafted in the first round that year. Barbosa has won a Sixth Man of the Year Award. Pietrus just helped stop LeBron and the Cavs in the Eastern Conference finals.

In 2004, Andris Biedrins, Anderson Varejao, Beno Udrih and Sasha Vujacic were drafted. Biedrins is a solid starting center and Varejao has been an important role player for the Cavs.

The Raptors get killed for taking Bargnani with the first pick in the 2006 draft, but he's been much better than Adam Morrison and Shelden Williams -- the third and fifth picks, respectively, in that year's draft. Which leads to a pretty interesting question: Is it really that much riskier taking an international player over an American player?

Milicic was a bust at No. 2. But the same can be said of other former No. 2 picks, like Stromile Swift, Shawn Bradley, Danny Ferry and Sam Bowie.

Skita was an awful No. 5 pick. But so were Shelden Williams, Jonathan Bender, Jon Koncak and Sidney Green.

Korolev was a disaster at No. 12. But Robert Swift, Melvin Ely, Cherokee Parks, Khalid Reeves and Harold Miner didn't exactly light up the league, either.

The draft is, and has always been, a crapshoot. As the D.R.A.F.T. Initiative has shown, the value of picks begins to drop off dramatically after the Top 5 are off the board. Could it be that international players have more in common with American players than we think?

Could it be true that for every Darko there's a Kwame Brown? For every Skita, an Adam Morrison?

Meanwhile, a number of NBA teams have proven that the late first round and second round are where the real value for international players are.

While there have been plenty of busts there too, there have also been a lot of success stories in the past decade. Tony Parker, Nenad Krstic, Andrei Kirilenko and Barbosa were late first-round picks. Manu Ginobili, Luis Scola, Varejao, Mehmet Okur, Marc Gasol, Zaza Pachulia, Marko Jaric and Gortat were all second-round picks.

Who could follow in their footsteps this year? That's what everyone here at the Eurocamp is trying to figure out.

Most of the players here aren't going to make it to the league. Of the players that do, most of them will fall out of the NBA within three years. But for the few that stick, it's worth all of the time, expense and trouble.

"The production of the international player in the NBA speaks for itself," Philo said. "Not scouting international talent or taking shortcuts, essentially leads to mistakes and poor evaluations. No matter what the perception is, it is imperative to scout the world extensively. Finding that one diamond in the rough can completely change the fortunes of a franchise."

And with a beautiful setting, amazing food and Venice just a few miles away, it's not hard to argue that the Reebok Eurocamp is the best scouting event of the year.

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For once I completely agree w/Chad Ford.

yeah, good article.

ford sums things up pretty nicely here.

I hate that Jennings is not playing. My hope is that GS takes him so we can take Curry. If Jennings does not do well in his workouts, GS is probably going to take Curry.