how are we "mathmatically" out again? To say we are incapable of going 17-13 in the last 30 is a bit myopic. Its not likely we're making the playoffs, but its not out of any realm of possiblity, in the slightest.

Posted by sebstar:

how are we "mathmatically" out again? To say we are incapable of going 17-13 in the last 30 is a bit myopic. Its not likely we're making the playoffs, but its not out of any realm of possiblity, in the slightest.

what he meant to say was that we have a better chance of making the playoffs than getting an extra pick out of a Randolph trade.

Posted by Cartman718:

Miami is 7 games ahead of us. It is obvious that we cannot catch them at #7. So the only teams we can hope to catch are Bucks, Nets, Bulls (all ahead of us right now)

Milwaukee is at #8 has a record of 26-29. They also have a winning streak of 2. Lets for a second visit their record 3 games ago. (since that works in our favor and mathematically it works against them)

They would have a record of 24-28 three games ago having played 52 games and we would have a record of 21-31 with 52 games completed.

Let us assume that both teams remain fairly injury free till the end of the season since that also works only in our favor.

Assuming that Milwaukee proceeds roughly at the same pace....
If they have won 24 out of 52 games, then they will win (24/52) * 82 games by the end of the season = 37.8. Again, giving ourselves some slack.....let us assume that they win 37 games.....not 38.

We are currently at 21 wins out of 52 games. In order for us to beat Milwaukee for the 8th spot, we have to win 38 games (not 37), because they have already won the tiebreaker against us. They are 3-0 against us this season.

So out of the remaining 30 games, we have to win at least 17. That is a winning percentage of 56.6 when our current winning percentage is 40.4!!!!! Out of these 30 games, we have 15 home games and 15 road games left.

On the road, we are 7 of 26 = a winning percentage of 27% and at home we are 14 of 26 which is roughly 54%. Let us increase the winning percentage home AND on the road by 10% each (which would seem to be the best case scenario).

So out of the remaining 15 road games, we would win 37% of 15 = 5.55 games
And out of the remaining home games, we would win 64% of 15 = 9.6 games

That puts us at 15 wins......when what we need is 17.

Time to play Chandler, Gallo and Roberson (probably) major minutes and bring back Patrick Ewing Jr.

We may be 'realistically' out of the playoffs, but mathematically we still have a shot. Your math doesn't really help because if you assume the same pace of winning and losing for all teams involved, of course we don't make the playoffs-- that's what the standings are--- that's precisely why we are in 11th place in the conference. All this means statistically is that if the playoffs started today, we wouldn't make the playoffs.

But, because we are 3 1/2 games back, we will not be mathematically eliminated until there are only 3 games left in the season for both teams. 4 games isn't out of the range of possibility-- especially considering that the Bucks are now without Redd and Bogut.

I think the playoffs don't seem realistic (PLAYOFFS!?! DON'T TALK TO ME ABOUT PLAYOFFS!!!!) but mathematically, we still have a chance.

Pick #8. That's our pick. Channing Frye. Michael Sweetney...

Posted by martin:

Posted by sebstar:

how are we "mathmatically" out again? To say we are incapable of going 17-13 in the last 30 is a bit myopic. Its not likely we're making the playoffs, but its not out of any realm of possiblity, in the slightest.

what he meant to say was that we have a better chance of making the playoffs than getting an extra pick out of a Randolph trade.

Damn, you touchy son.

Posted by Cartman718:

[quote]Posted by Cartman718:


and what are the chances of us winning 4 games more than the Bucks???.....we are talking about only 30 games here.

Without Redd, Bogut and Ridnour? Sessions and Villanueva look good picking up the slack, but c'mon, they don't have enough bodies to take it down the home stretch. I think the liklihood is pretty high. See below. I think there's a good chance they go 10-20. Most of the wins are questionable... and even if the schedule eases up at the end, they are going to tired and already out of playoff contention.

BUCKS SCHEDULE:
Tue 17 @ Detroit --- Loss
Wed 18 vs Chicago -- back to back with injuries, they probably lose--- Loss
Fri 20 vs Cleveland --Loss
Sun 22 vs Denver -- Loss
Wed 25 @ Dallas --Loss
Fri 27 @ New Orleans ---Loss
Sat 28 vs Washington ---Win?
Tue 03 vs New Jersey -- Win?
Wed 04 @ Cleveland ---Loss
Fri 06 @ Chicago ---Win?
Sat 07 vs Golden State -Win?
Tue 10 vs New York --Loss?
Fri 13 vs New Orleans --Loss
Sun 15 vs Boston --Loss
Wed 18 vs Orlando --Loss
Sat 21 vs Portland --Loss
Wed 25 @ Toronto --Win?
Fri 27 @ Orlando --Loss
Sat 28 @ Miami --Loss
Mon 30 @ New Jersey --Win?
Wed 01 vs LA Lakers --Loss
Thu 02 @ Philadelphia --Win?
Sat 04 vs Memphis --Win?
Wed 08 vs Atlanta --Loss
Sat 11 vs Oklahoma City -- Win?
Mon 13 vs Orlando --Loss
Wed 15 @ Indiana --Win?

NY Knicks Schedule-- Our wildcard is Toronto-- we have 4 games against them. Without a doubt the Knicks have to play good ball and win some games, but I think they really only have to go 14-16 to make the playoffs.

Tues 17 vs SA --- Loss
Fri 20 vs Tor --- Win?
Sun 22 @Tor --Win?
Mon 23 vs Ind --Win
Wed 25 vs Orl --Loss
Fri 27 vs Phi --Win
Sat 28 @ Mia --Loss
Wed 04 vs Atl --Loss
Sat 07 vs Char --Win
Sun 08 @ NJ ---Loss
Tues 10 @ Mil ---Win
Wed 11 @ Det --Loss
Fri 13 @ Min --Win
Sun 15 @ Cle --Loss
Wed 18 vs NJ --Win
Fri 20 vs Sac --Win
Sat 21 @ Orl --Loss
Mon 23 vs Orl--Loss
Wed 25 vs LAC -- Loss
Fri 27 vs NO --Loss
Sat 28 @ Char --Win
Mon 30 @ Utah --Loss
Tues 31 @ Den --Loss
Sat 04 vs Tor --Win?
Sun 05 @ Tor --Win?
Tues 07 @ Chi --Win?
Wed 8 vs Det --Loss
Fri 10 @ Orl --Loss
Sun 12 @ Mia --Loss
Wed 15 vs NJ --Win?

Anyway, the Bucks are ravaged with injuries and are going to lose a lot of games they would have won at full strength. The Knicks are a bit more of a crapshoot-- it depends what team shows up to play... but I think we have the much easier schedule.

I think we're more likely to catch the Bucks, than we are to catch the Bulls or the Nets.

Posted by Ira:

I think we're more likely to catch the Bucks, than we are to catch the Bulls or the Nets.

Bucks are playing pretty good basketball right now. Jefferson, Villanueva and Sessions are putting up solid numbers. It was a blessing in disguise that Redd went out. Look for them to improve as the season goes along.

We need to go 17-13 at the least to have a shot at the playoffs. Watching this season that would mean we'd probably go 10-10 over 20 over those games - and then need one of those 7-3 streaks in there again to make it happen.

In other words it's now highly unlikely. Especially if it takes 39, 40, 41 wins to make it happen. You can forget about it.