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Lee vs. Biedrins (advanced statistical comparison)
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PresIke
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10/14/2008  2:15 PM
Just posted this elsewhere, after folks have raised comparisons of Lee to Biedrins as a means of deciding what his value is, so figured I'd share it here as well...

Well, I just calculated David Lee's True Shooting (TSP) % and Biedrins for last year (Didn't know what site might have such stats)

Lee: 876 / (2 * (618 + (.44 * 237))) = 61% (.606)
Biedrins: 796 / (2 * (543 + (.44 * 187))) = 64% (.636)


I thought maybe Biedrins % would drop because of his low FT shooting %, but I forgot that it was actually Lee's that went up because he had a subpar year, compared to the previous 2 seasons, in FG%. If Lee ends up performing as he is now for most of this season, and shoots closer to the 60% we saw from his first two seasons, then he has a good chance to actually surpass Biedrins in TSP, assuming Biedrins doesn't improve at the line.

I think an important distinction to make is that both players have weaknesses and strengths that the other does not, and are key to winning games.

Biedrins is a better defensive player, which seems to be something good teams rely on late in games, and hurts Lee. Yet Lee on the other hand is a better free throw shooter, which if fouled would give his team a late game advantage on the court, while Biedrins could hurt his team here.

The point is both are very valuable, yet Lee is also showing more offensive versatility, particularly in jump shooting, which makes him a more potent weapon there, even with a lower TFS or eFG %.


Last year Biedrins took 11% of his shots from outside at a woeful 28% (.276) compared to Lee taking 26% of his shots there at 41% (.405)

Also worth noting is that while Biedrins has a better eFG% from close range shots (not dunks) 76% of those shots were assisted compared to 48% of Lee's.

This could be attributed to several variables that differentiate the Knicks offense and the Warriors last year. The Warriors had one of the best in Baron Davis versus the Knicks fiasco of PG's Marbury/Crawford/Nate/Mardy. Lee was more often getting shots out of isos or when he was just open rather than in the flow of the Knicks pathetic excuse for an offense last year, and yet he still hit a very good percentage for a PF (better than Duncan, btw, although Tim took far more shots from this area).

So, if Lee's jump shot is even better now, and we actually have an offense that exploits his improved ability to hit the open J, then I would say he is showing even more value on the offensive end than Biedrins than the stats demonstrate, and perhaps could be seen as surpassing him in value overall.

To compensate for Lee's weaknesses, and to address kid's question of who we have to play Center...well...many of us have been saying getting someone like Thabeet would be great. If not, some kind of Center that is strong defensively would be quite ideal, eventually.
Forum Po Po and #33 for a reason...
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Finestrg
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10/16/2008  12:54 AM
This is a good breakdown of the two. I've made the camparison myself before - at one point last season I made a case about dealing Lee+ to GS for Biedrins.

I know GS just re-uped him recently, but curiously Hoopshype doesn't have his salary listed - it's blanked out across the board for him. It'll probably take no less than what Biedrins got in order for us to lock up Lee. Anyone know what he signed for??
SkyWalker
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10/16/2008  9:15 AM
I like Lee a lot but Biedrins is exactly what the knicks need and the dude is a legit center who can defend anyone and protect the paint and a tremendous rebounder and a great athlete. He's also only going to get better on offense and has the tools to develop more moves around the basket.
Kenny SkyWalker
Lee vs. Biedrins (advanced statistical comparison)

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