brought up by supersub15 on realgm but looking at how the league is in terms of talent, and the dearth of true blue hall of fame superstars, it looks like just to get into the playoffs, you need two quality (borderline)allstar players and need three to really challenge.

last year's playoff teams:

celtics: ray + kg + pierce
hawks: joe + josh
cavs: lebron
wiz: arenas + caron + jamison (arenas hurt)
detroit: billups + rip + prince + sheed
sixers: ????
utah: deron + boozer + okur
rockets: tmac + yao (yao hurt)
spurs: duncan + parker + manu
suns: nash + amare + shaq
hornets: paul + west + tyson
mavs: kidd + dirk + howard
lakers: kobe + pau + odom + bynum (bynum hurt)
nuggets: iverson + melo + camby
orlando: dwight + shard + hedo
toronto: bosh + calderon/ford

teams that didn't advance: hawks, wiz, philly, suns, mavs, nuggets, toronto

hawks just didn't have enough parts to challenge the big 3 in boston. wiz had a hurt arenas otherwise they had a very good chance to get past cleveland. philly is an exception and shows that a team built on defense and tough nosed players can overachieve in the regular season and make the playoffs but that's their ceiling (bulls 05/06/07). suns aging shaq makes their big 3 less than the spurs. mavs loss is telling as it may show that kidd might be getting too old.

teams that advanced are: boston, cavs, detroit, utah, spurs, hornets, lakers, orlando

cavs advancement shows just how GREAT lebron is. detroit did what they were supposed to do. and orlando probably would only have been able to beat toronto, atlanta, and the wiz to advance.

following this model, this upcoming season:

east:

boston - playoffs (kg + ray + pierce)
toronto - playoffs (calderon + bosh + o'neal)
philly - TBD
nets - no playoffs (vince)
knicks - no playoffs (zach)

detroit - playoffs (billups + rip + prince + sheed)
cleveland - playoffs (lebron = greatness)
indiana - no playoffs
chicago - no playoffs (deng + gordon)
milwaukee - playoffs (redd + rj + bogut)

orlando - playoffs (dwight + shard + hedo)
miami - playoffs (wade + marion)
washington - playoffs (arenas + caron + jamison)
charlotte - no playoffs
atlanta - playoffs (joe + josh)

west:

new orleans - playoffs (paul + west + tyson)
spurs - playoffs (duncan + parker + manu)
rockets - playoffs (tmac + yao)
dallas - playoffs (kidd + howard + dirk)
memphis - no playoffs

jazz - playoffs (deron + boozer + okur)
nuggets - playoffs (iverson + melo + camby)
portland - no playoffs (roy)
minny - no playoffs (jefferson)
seattle - no playoffs

lakers - playoffs (kobe + odom + gasol)
suns - playoffs (nash + amare + shaq)
warriors - no playoffs
kings - no playoffs (kmart)
clippers - playoffs (diddy + brand + kaman)

not a science and barring other player movement, but you can see what it takes to even challenge for the playoffs in the league today. the teams that most likely won't make the playoffs next year really have 1 guy that's just decent/good with nothing else.

[Edited by - djsunyc on 07-02-2008 11:13 AM]

In the history of the league this has been pretty much the formula for success. I think that is what Waltoni will look to do here. Sometimes players just take that next step and i'm hopeful that we can see that happen with our young players one day, much like the Hawks did this year.

Posted by djsunyc:


the problem with the hawks is that they have joe johnson and smith could be emerging...but who else on that roster looks to take that next step? it's really on marvin williams at this point or else they will have to make a trade.

What Al Horford isn't any good?

Posted by djsunyc:

Posted by nyk4ever:

Posted by djsunyc:


the problem with the hawks is that they have joe johnson and smith could be emerging...but who else on that roster looks to take that next step? it's really on marvin williams at this point or else they will have to make a trade.

What Al Horford isn't any good?

good point. forgot about him.

I think your premise is right though. You really need 3 top-tier guys to advance and after the years of lotto picks, the Hawks look like they are heading in that direction. They even have Acie Law in the fold too. They are going to be a team to be reckoned with. Joe + Horford + JSmoove + Acie Law + Marvin Williams.