posted by supersub over at the raptors board...
I have done this last year and since I kept my spreadsheet, it was easy to do an update with last year’s playoffs. Basically, I had gone through the playoffs in the last 26 years (since the 1981-1982 season), and tabulated regular season records and seeds to see if there is any correlation between the regular season and contending. By contending, I mean reaching the Conference Finals, i.e. a team should at least win 2 playoff rounds and have a chance at the NBA Finals.
Conclusions:
1. Of the 104 teams that have made the Conference Finals since the 1981-1982 season, only 8 were seeded 5th or lower, i.e. only 7.6% of the teams were able to pull the upset over the higher-seeded team.
2. Of those 8 low-seeded teams, only 2 actually reached the Finals, the Houston Rockets of 1994-1995 and the New York Knicks of 1998-1999. That’s a 1.9% chance.
3. Only one low-seed has won the NBA championship in the past 26, the Houston Rockets of 1994-1995 as the 6th seed in the West with a record of 47-25. That’s 0.9% chance. And that team was not low-seeded because of a lack of talent, but because Olajuwon missed 10 games and Clyde Drexler missed 57 games.
4. The average record of the Conference Finalists was 0.705, i.e. 57-24 (one game missing from the tally due to the 50-game season in 1998-1999.
5. The average record of the NBA Champion in the past 26 years has been 0.750 (61.5 wins).
6. In the past 26 years, the number 1 seeded team in the East has reached the Conference Finals 26 times. The number 2 seeded team has reached the Conference Finals 15 times and the number 3 seeded team 8 times.
7. In the past 26 years, the number 1 seeded team in the West has reached the Conference Finals 22 times. The number 2 seeded team has reached the Conference Finals 17 times and the number 3 seeded team 7 times.
8. 17 of the last 26 champions were ranked 1st in their confrence.
9. 18 of the last 26 champions had more than 60 wins in the regular season.
All this does is prove that winning heavily in the regular season is a precursor of contending status in the playoffs. It’s so lopsided, the chances of pretty good teams like Orlando, Cleveland and Utah actually winning the whole thing are almost nil. Hoping that the Raptors win 50 games and contending are also nil. We need 55+ wins to be taken seriously.
