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History of NBA Draft Lottery Winners
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eViL
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4/20/2008  12:08 PM 

Year by year, winner and lottery slot:

Year	Slot	Team
1985	5	NYK
1986	6	PHI
1987	7	SAS
1988	3	LAC
1989	7	SAC
1990	1	NJ
1991	5	CHA
1992	2	ORL
1993	11	ORL
1994	4	MIL
1995	5	GS
1996	2	PHI
1997	3	SAS
1998	3	LAC
1999	3	CHI
2000	7	NJN
2001	3	WAS
2002	5	HOU
2003	1	CLE
2004	1	ORL
2005	6	MIL
2006	5	TOR
2007	6	POR
2008	?	???


(*) The bold years are the years where the NBA moved to the modern day weighting system.


Amount of times each slot has won the first pick since the beginning of the lottery:

Slot	# of Wins
1	3
2	2
3	5
4	1
5	5
6	3
7	3
8	0
9	0
10	0
11	1
12	0
13	0



Amount of times each slot has won the first pick since the modern day system:

Slot	# of Wins
1	2
2	1
3	4
4	1
5	3
6	2
7	1
8	0
9	0
10	0
11	0
12	0
13	0


All info from: http://www.nba.com/history/lottery_probabilities.html

When the Knicks won the first pick in 1985, they were in the 5th slot. Can lightning strike twice?
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AUTOADVERT
nyk4ever
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4/20/2008  12:40 PM
I just want #1 or #2. For the love of god PLEASE just #1 or #2
"OMG - did we just go on a two-trade-wining-streak?" -SupremeCommander
eViL
Posts: 25412
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4/20/2008  12:46 PM
nykman from RealGM posted the New York Knicks NBA lottery odds:

#01: 07.55%
#02: 08.37%
#03: 09.37%
#04: 00.00%
#05: 26.10%
#06: 35.90%
#07: 08.40%
#08: 00.04%
#09: 00.00%
#10: 00.00%
#11: 00.00%
#12: 00.00%
#13: 00.00%
#14: 00.00%

25.29% chance of Getting a TOP 3 PICK
15.92% chance of Getting a TOP 2 PICK
7.55% chance of Getting the TOP PICK

http://realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=781739
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Uptown
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4/20/2008  1:15 PM
The 3rd and 5th spots seem to be the hot-spots to jump to #1. #3 and #5 have won the top pick more than the team with the worst record. My only concern is that at some point the law of averages will kick in.
eViL
Posts: 25412
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4/20/2008  1:33 PM
Posted by Uptown:

The 3rd and 5th spots seem to be the hot-spots to jump to #1. #3 and #5 have won the top pick more than the team with the worst record. My only concern is that at some point the law of averages will kick in.

Yeah, you know -- I had this feeling towards the end of the season, that if the Knicks fell to the bottom two teams in the league, that they'd get skipped by the 5th spot. I just thought that would be the type of thing that would happen to our team. So I'm not that upset that we are where we are -- we are where we're supposed to be, we were pretty much 5th worse all season long.

More often than not, teams that deliberately tank, get screwed. You hear that Miami?
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djsunyc
Posts: 44929
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Member: #536
4/20/2008  5:12 PM
knicks will get the 2nd pick. the fix is in...
Bonn1997
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4/20/2008  5:20 PM
Posted by Uptown:

The 3rd and 5th spots seem to be the hot-spots to jump to #1. #3 and #5 have won the top pick more than the team with the worst record. My only concern is that at some point the law of averages will kick in.

Those are just random occurrences that you get with small samples. There's no legitimate reason to prefer the #3 slot over the #2 slot (or #5 over #4).
Uptown
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Member: #1883
4/20/2008  5:28 PM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by Uptown:

The 3rd and 5th spots seem to be the hot-spots to jump to #1. #3 and #5 have won the top pick more than the team with the worst record. My only concern is that at some point the law of averages will kick in.

Those are just random occurrences that you get with small samples. There's no legitimate reason to prefer the #3 slot over the #2 slot (or #5 over #4).


I think I adressed that point.
GKFv2
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4/20/2008  5:35 PM
Eh, these are the Knicks. They never have any luck. There is also the possibility they can move down. It's a lottery and anything can happen. But it would have been better if we had a higher chance at a top pick. I think I agree with the law of averages theory. The 5th and 6th slots aren't going to win it every year and I think 3 straight years is probably where it will end.
Thank you, Rick Brunson.
eViL
Posts: 25412
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4/22/2008  3:05 PM
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by Uptown:

The 3rd and 5th spots seem to be the hot-spots to jump to #1. #3 and #5 have won the top pick more than the team with the worst record. My only concern is that at some point the law of averages will kick in.

Those are just random occurrences that you get with small samples. There's no legitimate reason to prefer the #3 slot over the #2 slot (or #5 over #4).

I didn't post this because I think the fifth slot is somehow better than the 1, 2, 3 or 4 slot. It just feels good to know that, at the very least, we're in one of the lottery positions that has, mathematically and historically, a legit shot at the first pick. As pessimistic as I can be about the team, we do have a shot at moving up and it's a realistic shot. LET'S GO KNICKS!!! WIN THE LOTTERY!!!
check out my latest hip hop project: https://soundcloud.com/michaelcro http://youtu.be/scNXshrpyZo
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