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Hollinger predicts the Knicks will win 28 games this season
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mythfaze
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12/7/2007  11:30 AM
...sort of

NBA Hollinger Playoff Odds 2007-08

Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are based on the Hollinger Power Rankings, designed by ESPN.com's John Hollinger.

The Hollinger Power Rankings are a measure of each team's performance in the season so far.

Based on those rankings, each day the computer plays out the remainder of the season 5,000 times to see the potential range of projected outcomes. The results reveal the most likely win-loss record for each team -- and how likely it is for each team to make the playoffs, win the NBA title, win the lottery, and so on.

For more on how the system works and what it means, see Hollinger's explanation.

Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are updated automatically each night.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

East
Boston 64-18
Orlando 60-22
Detroit 58-24
Toronto 46-36
Washington 44-38
Indiana 41-41
Cleveland 37-45
Atlanta 36-46
Milwaukee 33-49
Miami 33-49
Philadelphia 33-49
New Jersey 33-49
Chicago 32-50
New York 28-54
Charlotte 26-56

West
San Antonio 58-24
Phoenix 56-26
Utah 55-27
Golden State 51-31
LA Lakers 51-31
Houston 47-35
Dallas 45-37
Denver 43-49
New Orleans 44-38
Sacramento 38-44
Memphis 36-46
Portland 32-50
LA Clippers 25-57
Seattle 24-58
Minnesota 21-61

Go visit the site and take a look - there's a lot more there:

W = Average number of wins from 5,000 computer-simulated seasons, based on the Hollinger Power Rankings
L = Average number of losses
Best = Best record from simulated seasons
Worst = Worst record from simulated seasons
Playoffs = Likelihood of making the playoffs
Division = Likelihood of winning the division
No. 1 = Likelihood of holding the top seed for the conference
Finals = Likelihood of making the NBA Finals
Champs = Likelihood of winning the NBA title
Lottery = Likelihood of winning the lottery

[Edited by - mythfaze on 12-07-2007 11:31 AM]
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VDesai
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12/7/2007  11:39 AM
The Hollinger Power Rankings are a measure of each team's performance in the season so far.

The key line. Of course the Knicks have played like crap right now so they will finish with a crap record.

Fancy computers an all, if you just took our winning percentage right now and multiplied that times and 82 game season, you'd come out with 29 wins.
franco12
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12/7/2007  12:27 PM
I'm not holding my breath- but the knicks need to win one more game each month than they lose to finish 500.

Unlikely- but if they play like they have without Marbury & Curry (addition by subtraction) I think they could
SupremeCommander
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12/7/2007  12:36 PM
Posted by VDesai:
The Hollinger Power Rankings are a measure of each team's performance in the season so far.

The key line. Of course the Knicks have played like crap right now so they will finish with a crap record.

Fancy computers an all, if you just took our winning percentage right now and multiplied that times and 82 game season, you'd come out with 29 wins.

This thing is ridiculous. I'm one of the biggest Hollinger fan, but this record predictor adds nothing of value because it doesn't make any projections... it's all based upon PAST data. It doesn't take into account anything like, say, Ray Allen and his knees averaging 40 minutes a night.
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Allanfan20
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12/7/2007  1:31 PM
Posted by franco12:

I'm not holding my breath- but the knicks need to win one more game each month than they lose to finish 500.

Unlikely- but if they play like they have without Marbury & Curry (addition by subtraction) I think they could

Don't use that Nets game as a measuring stick. Every player on that team looked confused as hell without Jason Kidd, and as good a victory that was for us, I think any team could have beat them, that night and they've been struggling WITH Kidd. We still have all our flaws with and without Curry and Marbury and with or without them, the roster will need to be rebuilt in order to have a winning team.

Winning teams don't need the death of a teammates parent as a motivational source, and this is the sense I am getting. It will wear off, you can believe that.
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holfresh
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12/7/2007  4:21 PM

It really takes a lot of imagination to multiply our winning percentage by the number of games this season...Good effort...
Solace
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12/7/2007  4:27 PM
Why is everyone knocking this? Clearly based on his description, he didn't simply multiply by the number of remaining games. The fact that how they've done so far this season factors is shouldn't be a surprise. What's a better heuristic? How we 'will' do?

Now the fact that it's all formulaic and that it's never going to be 100% accurate for predicting the future should deflect some criticism. That being said, it has a reasonable chance of being accurate, doesn't it?

[Edited by - Solace on Dec 07 2007 4:28 PM]
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eViL
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12/7/2007  4:32 PM
It can't be as simple as multiplying our win percentage by 82 games because if that was the case, Miami would be projected to have a worse record than ours. So there has to be a little more to this Hollinger thing.
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VDesai
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12/7/2007  4:33 PM
Posted by Solace:

Why is everyone knocking this? Clearly based on his description, he didn't simply multiply by the number of remaining games. The fact that how they've done so far this season factors is shouldn't be a surprise. What's a better heuristic? How we 'will' do?

Now the fact that it's all formulaic and that it's never going to be 100% accurate for predicting the future should deflect some criticism. That being said, it has a reasonable chance of being accurate, doesn't it?

[Edited by - Solace on Dec 07 2007 4:28 PM]

I don't necessarily question the accuracy, but I question the value. Barring catastrophic or hugely positive events, what you are now is the best predictor of what you will be. But was all the trouble put into making this system worth it if all you have to do is look at our record now to come up with a good prediction?

If the system took stuff like strength of schedule, point differentials and stuff a step further and inferred improved or worse future performance- it would be more interesting. My apologies if it already does that I haven't dug too deeply into his system. Just looks like the record he predicted aren't far off what the standings are right now.

Perhaps it looks better with more data when the season is further under way. But then again- too close to the end and what good would that do ya....
VDesai
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12/7/2007  4:34 PM
Posted by eViL:

It can't be as simple as multiplying our win percentage by 82 games because if that was the case, Miami would be projected to have a worse record than ours. So there has to be a little more to this Hollinger thing.


It isn't that simple- but in some cases you can arrive at the same number (or very close) just by doing that.
VDesai
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12/7/2007  4:42 PM
I found this system of ranking teams more interesting:

http://www.knickerblogger.net/2007/12/05/colley-rankings-1252008/#comment-189114
Solace
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12/7/2007  4:42 PM
Posted by VDesai:
Posted by eViL:

It can't be as simple as multiplying our win percentage by 82 games because if that was the case, Miami would be projected to have a worse record than ours. So there has to be a little more to this Hollinger thing.


It isn't that simple- but in some cases you can arrive at the same number (or very close) just by doing that.

The fact that you can arrive at a similar number by doing multiplication just means that multiplication is a rough estimate that proves true in some cases, which it does. His system is more complex, which I think you realize.

I think the annoyance is that the Knicks are predicted at 28 wins, which is lower than just about everyone, including me, on this board had them slated for.
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Solace
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12/7/2007  4:46 PM
Posted by VDesai:

I found this system of ranking teams more interesting:

http://www.knickerblogger.net/2007/12/05/colley-rankings-1252008/#comment-189114

I like the principle behind it. The Knicks at 36 wins may or may not be realistic, though.
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Hollinger predicts the Knicks will win 28 games this season
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