http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/25/sports/24cnd-danley.html?ref=basketball

As Draft Approaches, What’s Not Visible From the Stands


By STEPHEN DANLEY
Published: June 25, 2007

Stephen Danley, who played forward at Penn before graduating this spring, provides his insights into the top players in the National Basketball Association draft, which will be held Thursday.

General managers give personality tests. They hold individual workouts and measure players. But there is no comparison between watching a player and competing against him.

There are skills that are nearly impossible to evaluate from the stands. How does a player react when you shade him to the left? Will he overreach and make a bad play after a missed shot? Out on the perimeter, I’ve played with guys who would grab your wrist, pull you in one direction, and cut backdoor for a layup while you were off balance.

In the post I would often bump a guy going middle, then anticipate his countermove to the base line. When I beat him to that spot, he would either travel or take an off-balance shot. Those are the types of plays that are very tough to evaluate by watching the game. Certain subtleties simply aren’t visible from the stands.

So this article is intended to highlight those subtleties, specifically among the players I had the opportunity to play against.

When I started evaluating players before writing this, I realized I was separating them into the guys I’d want on my team and the guys I’d hate to play with.

Go to any gym in the country and one rule is always the same. Win and stay on. So being picked up for games becomes a rite of passage.

I remember a summer night at DeMatha every bit as clearly as I remember my first collegiate game. Jerry Stackhouse picked me first over two big men in the Atlantic Coast Conference. I knew he only picked me because I wasn’t going to take the shots he wanted, but I was still so excited that I spent the game running around like Anderson Varejao with a buzz cut and a Red Bull.

In that spirit, these are the guys I’d pick first if the gym was packed and there was an hour wait to play again if we lost.

ACIE LAW IV, guard, Texas A & M — When we were preparing to play Texas A. & M. in the tournament, the scouting report pointed out an amazing stat. In the last two minutes of close basketball games, Law outscored the entire opposing team. It wasn’t until we actually played him that I understood what that stat meant. For most of the game Law was content to set up his teammates, trying to involve everyone in the game. Coming down the stretch in the second half he went for the jugular and ran off a couple of quick buckets to put us away. Say what you want about his skills or his quickness, but if you have to win a game, you want this kid on the court.

GLEN DAVIS, forward, Louisiana State — For the life of me I can’t understand how “Big Baby” has dropped so far down most people’s draft boards. He’s got unbelievable feet, he’s a polished offensive player and he’s an engaging personality from both a marketing standpoint and a teammate’s perspective. He’ll be a fan favorite. I would be completely fine with my Wizards taking him at 16. He’d be an immediate improvement over Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas offensively. Of course, general managers are worried about his weight, so he may fall to the second round. I’d be even happier if the Wizards could grab him there.

JEFF GREEN, forward, Georgetown — In the mold of a Scottie Pippen or Lamar Odom, Jeff Green can do it all. Almost. In the Georgetown summer league this past year I found myself facing Jeff in a tip to start the game. Knowing he would almost certainly win a fair jump, I leaned against his hip with my left forearm on the way up. The result was he flailed wildly at the ball, and I calmly tipped it back to my point guard. The game later went to overtime. As we stepped up for the second tip Jeff looked at the ref and said, “Watch Steve, he cheats on the tip.” The ref looked at him incredulously and I quipped back, “Maybe I’m just more athletic than you, Jeff.” I won that tip too. A guy with his passing ability should be fine as long as he has some talent around him, and this past year at Georgetown he showed signs of turning into a player who wanted to take big shots down the stretch. If he turns into that guy, watch out. Either way, he makes you better with his versatility.

DEMETRIS NICHOLS, forward, Syracuse — Demetris is a perfect example of a guy being overlooked because general managers try to assemble talent, not a basketball team. Team USA now realizes they can’t just toss out a group of All-Stars and win overseas. Good N.B.A. teams are built the same way. In a game where there are five players and just one ball, role-players are at a premium. Just because Nichols is not adept at creating his own shot doesn’t mean he won’t be a valuable basketball player. He uses screens superbly, a la Rip Hamilton or Reggie Miller, and he isn’t afraid to take (and make) big shots. Teams are stockpiling shooters; look at Houston’s pickup of Steve Novak. The difference between Nichols and Novak? Novak can’t guard driftwood (we played together on a team the N.I.T. sent to Europe). Nichols is a long 6-foot-8 player capable of guarding a two or a three.

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As a guy who has always had a little more desire than talent, I take pride in playing basketball the right way. There’s nothing worse than playing pickup with a talented point guard who insists on taking off-balance 3’s, or a physical specimen in the post who just isn’t hungry for boards. In that spirit, the following players will either be out of the league in five years or be signed by the Knicks to franchise-debilitating contracts.

JOSH McROBERTS, forward, Duke — One of my favorite tests of a player’s mental makeup is to give him an open shot in a pressure situation. An Acie Law or Kevin Durant will stick a dagger in the opposition. Most players will take the open shot, make or miss, without thinking too hard about it. McRoberts is one of those guys who lets it get into his head, and hesitates. You can almost see him thinking, “Why are they leaving me open?” I’d always rather play with a guy who thinks that shot is going down than one who doesn’t.

BRANDAN WRIGHT, forward, North Carolina — Forecasting Wright’s career is a tough call. Brandan has the talent to be good. When I guarded him in the Dean Dome he displayed great touch around the basket and an effective spin move, and he dropped in hook shots like a kid tossing pennies in a wishing well. Here’s the catch: People are rating him the third best player in the draft, but when we played North Carolina we considered him the third biggest threat on the team. We were more worried about Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough. Wright is an awful shooter and ball-handler. We didn’t bother to chase him outside of eight feet, choosing instead to allow his defender to play off him and sag into the lane. It’s not that I don’t think he’ll be a contributor down the road for somebody, it’s just that in this draft a top-five pick has to be better than a complementary player.

SEAN WILLIAMS, center, Boston College — Three years ago when we played Boston College, our game plan was not to guard Sean Williams. We wanted to use his defender to help against Craig Smith and Jared Dudley. They finally made an adjustment and started cutting him toward the basket, and he had a dunk coming down the lane. I don’t care how many shots a guy can block — if he doesn’t need to be guarded outside of two feet, under no condition will I spend a first round pick on him.

DARRYL WATKINS, center, Syracuse — He seems to be a workout wonder, moving up draft boards. “Mookie” certainly passes the eyeball test, but I can’t see him as a productive player. Since when do a handful of good workouts outweigh four years of underachieving? At Syracuse I thought he played lackadaisically and didn’t have an offensive game. Frankly, I’d rather see my team draft another European that no one has heard of.

Well, there it is. Some guys who play the right way and some talented enigmas who haven’t quite put it together yet. Pick at your own peril, and while you’re at it, Stackhouse wouldn’t be a bad free agent signing either.

[Edited by - oldfan on 06-27-2007 12:34 PM]

Interesting article.

Posted by EnySpree:

Guess I will just have to buy the post to read that article.

why?

That was a great article. Kid was brutally honest.

I still think Demetris Nichols could be a good pickup for this team.

Surprised more haven't chimed in here. I mean he basically says that Brandon Wright is not worth being a top 5 pick. The Acie Law report makes me wish we could get him....I also like his assessment of Nichols. IMHO he might be a nice fit at the for the Knicks since he can score, shoot and defend a bit at the 2/3 where we are lacking someone who can do all 3 (unless Q is healthy and his shot is on) and who doesn't need the ball the whole game, question is whether he is worth being picked at 23.

I think comments on Sean Williams and Glenn Davis are very interesting. From the little I know I would have expected Davis to be the bigger question mark - but the writer seems to doubt Williams ability more.