hehe, I'm tempted to repost that bit of research I did about Marbury and team assists. How everywhere he's gone they gone down on his arrival and up on his departure. People told me that's because he's a scoring PG, but I also showed the opposite were true for Clyde, Magic and Isiah, the 3 PGs who led their team in scoring on their way to championships.

LOL at that logic franco

Posted by Elite:

LOL at that logic franco

I was about to say the same thing. Subtract currys 295 turnovers and 600 assist(not an actual number) too.

Okay, Anji, this is for you.

I wrote this 51 games into the 04-05 season, a month or so after his "I'm the best" comments, when the vast majority of my message board mates thought he had the right to consider himself such. I was told all we had to do was get rid of Lenny and Kurt and we'd be well on our way.

I haven't updated the data since then, but we all know how he's struggled with coaches, and how uninspired our offense still is.

One note is that I don't think wins and TAs are in direct correlation. For instance, it's not as if each year the team with the best record leads the league in team assists. But I think it is indicative of a style of play, one that seems to follow Marbury around, and transcends coaches and team make-up.

Anyway...

-------

Marbury and team assists (TAs)

I'd like to make a presentation of what I believe separates Marbury from the great scoring PGs of the game.

I do this for two reasons,

A) I keep hearing people say Marbury is a great PG, even though people like Bob Cousy and his former coach (COY) D'Antioni have since echoed my sentiments to the contrary. By his supporters I'm told Marbury's 8 apg prove his greatness, but I believe larger career trends tell far more.

B) I continually see people say "you can't win with a PG leading your team in scoring." History proves that statement blatantly false. There may be others I'm not aware of, but I know of three PGs who led their team in scoring on their way to a championship:

Clyde, 1973 Knicks.
Magic, 1986 Lakers
Isiah, 1990 Pistons

However, these men not only were good scorers, but good playmakers too. They not only put up good personal stats, but good team stats as well.

I believe one relevant indicator of an offense with good "flow" is team assists (TA). Team assists are the total of all assisted shots, including, but not limited to, the point guard. High team assists is suggestive of ball movement not solely emanating from the PG position. It's "the pass that leads to the pass that leads to the bucket" approach. It's the antithesis of the stagnant offense we presently see on the Knicks, where the ball is pounded on the perimeter, or passed back and forth on the perimeter, until late in the clock. Most passes yield low percentage jumpers, and frequently Marbury never relinquishes the ball for the entire possession. He brings it up-court, dribbles around the perimeter, then drives it in.

Below are relevant team assist stats for Clyde, Magic and Isiah's teams. These men arrived at clubs which were under-performing and produced immediate and lasting positive impacts on team assists and wins. And, with the exception of Clyde, who left his duties in the capable hands of HOFer Monroe, their departure was met by a concomitant falloff in production and success.

Isiah and Magic spent their entire careers with one club, and retired before their time for health reasons. Clyde moved once (to Cleveland) in the twilight of his career.

Below I show the teams of each of these PGs before they arrived, then their impact, then the team after they left. The relevant variables noted are the year, team assists, win-loss record, and in parenthesis the personal stats of the PG of the time.


Knicks:
YR, TA, Record, PG Stats
67 22.0 36-49 (Komives 15.7 ppg/6.2 apg)
68 24.0 43-39 (Clyde rookie 9.0/4.1)
73 26.7 57-25 (Clyde 21.1/5.9, leads team in scoring, wins Championship)
77 23.9 40-42 (17.4/5.3 Clyde's last season as Knick)
78 28.5 43-39 (Monroe 17.8/4.8)


Above we see TAs increase with the arrival of Clyde. However, they did not decrease after his departure with the ball in Monroe's HOF hands.

------

Lakers:
YR, TA, Record, PG Stats
79 28.5 47-35 (Nixon 17.1/9.0 (very impressive!))
80 29.4 60-22 (Magic rookie 18/7.3 Championship)
86 29.6 65-17 (Magic 23.9/12.2 leads team in scoring, wins championship)
91 25.5 58-24 (Magic's last healthy season, 19.4 ppg 7.0 rpg 12.5 apg)
92 22.0 39-43 (Threatt 15.1/7.2)

------

Pistons:
YR, TA, Record, PG Stats
81 22.2 21-61 (Not sure who the PG was)
82 24.7 39-43 (Isiah rookie 17/7.8 )
90 24.3 59-23 (Isiah 18.4/9.4 leads team in scoring, wins Championship)
93 23.7 40-42 (Isiah's last healthy year 17.6/8.5)
95 22.8 28-54 (Dumars 18.1/5.5)

------

Now, in contrast, we'll see Marbury has moved around a lot in his young career. And aside from a brief improvement to his first club, Minnesota (which also coincides with the comeuppance of Garnett and the apex of Gogliotta's career), at each stop his arrival brings a decline in both team assists and wins, while his departure brings a surge. This is the opposite of the greats above.

Minny:
YR, TA, Record, PG Stats
'96 22.8 26-56 (Porter 9.4/5.5)
'97 22.9 40-42 (Marbury 15.8/7.8 )
'98 25.2 45-37 (Marbury 17.7/8.6)
'99 24.4 25-25 (Marbury 17.7/9.3, Brandon 14.2/9.8, Marbury traded 18 games in ) (lockout season)
'00 26.9 50-32 (Brandon 17.1/8.9)

What stands out to me is that Marbury's energy and production over the aging Porter does result in an initial boost to the club, (as does the maturation of Garnett). Note how wins coincide with team assists, and the surge in team assists after Marbury fully departs.

Nets:
YR, TA, Record, PG Stats
98 20.5 43-39 (Cassell 19.6/8.0)
99 18.4 16-34 (Marbury 23.4/8.7, Cassell 18/4.8, Cassell only played in 4 games)
00 20.6 31-51 (Marbury 22.2/8.4)
01 19.5 26-56 (Marbury 23.9/7.6)
02 24.3 50-32 (Kidd 14.7/9.9)

Note again how wins track team assists and the surge in TAs (and wins) upon Marbury's departure.

Suns:
YR, TA, Record, PG Stats
01 23.2 51-39 (Kidd 16.9/9.8 )
02 22.4 36-46 (Marbury 20.4/8.1)
03 21.0 44-38 (Marbury 22.3/8.1)
04 19.3 29-53 (Marbury/Eisley/Barbosa)
05 23.1 62-20 (Nash 16.9/11.5)

With the exception of '03, wins again closely track team assists and in that stat (team assist is what I'm looking at, regardless that his personals don't keep up with them either) Marbury can't keep pace with the premium PGs, like Brandon, Nash and Kidd.

Knicks:
YR, TA, Record, PG Stats
03 22.7 37-45 (Ward 7.2/4.6 Eisley 9.1/5.4)
04 20.7 39-43 (Marbury/Ward/Eisley)
05 20.3 33-49 (Marbury 21.7/8.1)
06 17.9 23-59 (Marbury 16.3/6.4)
07 18.7 33-49 (Marbury 16.4/5.4)

If ever there were an opportunity for Steph to reverse the trends it was with the Knicks, known for years as a slow, unatheletic, jumpshooting squad with poor ball movement and sub-standard PGs. Even with a clean house, and presumably a better, retooled lineup, Steph keeps pace with his career trends and we see an overall reduction in team assists and wins.

Those team records encompass his entire career. A close reading will reveal he's never won more than 45 wins and most seasons were spent well below .500


[Edited by - blueseats on 04-28-2007 01:13 AM]

Posted by franco12:

the problem with your marbury analysis is that the only variable changing wasn't marbury alone- the suns got hurt, the nets were hurt.

If we were to trade marbury (which I am for), and our assists went up, I think part of the explanation is that other guys try harder and move instead of waiting for the 'star' to make a play.

Agreed, the data would support the theory that Marbury takes every injury as an opportunity to ball hog.

However, it's not inconceivable that injuries could justify an increase in team assists, for instance with less dependancy on a go-to guy.

An example is Phoenix. In Nash's first year (04-05), with a healthy Amare they netted 23 TA. The next year (05-06), with Amare injured they netted 26 TA.

In contrast, in 02-03 with Amare healthy Marbury had them at 20.6 TA, the following year when Amare missed 27 games TA dropped to 19.3. That latter figure isn't totally accurate because it reflects the full season while Marbury got traded midway through, but I think it serves as contrast to the direction TAs took with Nash in a similar circumstance.

He's Thomas's greatest pet. He was suposed to be the next Zeke!

Posted by franco12:

Posted by Anji:

^^^^ I want to bust my head on a wall............ you should finish these stats. Because the Marbury everybody hated as a cancer and a ball hog, the one who started this whole post by you finished that season averaging 20 Team assists. With tiny Tim and the rest cast of horrible players we had.

The "new" marbury that has leaned at the ripe old age of 30 that he wants to be a team player. Who had CUrry, Jc,Q , Lee, Balkman ,Nate, Frye, a whole team of players who can finish...... just finished averaging 18 Team assists per game.......... We will neverwin with him here. NEVER!!!!!!!!

[Edited by - anji on 04-28-2007 12:54 AM]

I don't disagree with the notion that Marbury should get traded. I think its unfair, though, to crucify him on our lack of team assists this year, when the offense ultimately became "Dump it into Curry" and watch.

Maybe if Curry had been able to pass out to his own team mates and we had a legit spot up shooter, the numbers would have been better.

People can pin point much of it on starbury, statistically as much as they want, but it's much more than that. It's his presence that seems to have a negative effect. It like his past is catching up to him. Catching up to all of us. It is just what it is. It's some kind of bad energy, having to do more with chemistry that statistics cannot put a finger on. It's just been happening for so, so long is what is disturbing about having him on this team anymore. Lately, I been getting the same thing with Thomas being around anymore. I hate to say it, but maybe it's Dolan who is spreading this love of negativity onto this team. I just don't know what it is exactly or where it's coming from. I/we just don't feel good about it. I've described it as attitude, but it's something else. Even Nates been giving off this kind of aura also. It can be a destructive thing, if you don't know what it is or how to use it or not' to use it.

Posted by RemBee76:


I would like to see a similarly rigorous study performed looking at the percentage of Assisted Field Goals. And I would be happy to help.

Be my guest. I'd love to see it for Clyde, Isiah, Magic, and Marbury with the requisite overlaps of Nash and Kidd.

FWIW, tomverve suggested things should also be adjusted for pace. It was a good point he made but when he crunched the numbers pace showed little difference, at least as I recall it.

No statistic ever tells the whole story, and I'm quite sure that whatever complex equation one might come up with someone will note what's still missing. But no doubt my efforts were crude. I look forward to seeing what you can come up with.