courtesy of kosmovitelli on realgm:

The Knicks ended their season last night by a win and a 33-49 record.
Most of the fans here don't want to surrender a top 2 pick to the Bulls. Knicks fans are wondering what are the odds of the Knicks winning the #1 or #2 pick. So let's take a closer look at the lottery and evaluate our chances.


Here’s the usual breakdown of the lottery and the number of combinations (chances) given to each team according to the standings :

#01 - 250 chances
#02 - 199 chances
#03 - 156 chances
#04 - 119 chances
#05 - 88 chances
#06 - 63 chances
#07 - 43 chances
#08 - 28 chances
#09 - 17 chances
#10 - 11 chances
#11 - 8 chances
#12 - 7 chances
#13 - 6 chances
#14 - 5 chances

Now here are the standings (in reverse) for the lottery this season :

Memphis----------22-60
Boston------------24-58
Milwaukee--------28-54
Atlanta------------30-52
Seattle------------31-51
Minnesota---------32-50
Portland----------32-50
Charlotte---------33-49
Sacramento------33-49
New York---------33-49
Philadelphia------35-47
Indiana-----------35-47
New Orleans------39-43
LA Clippers-------40-42

Since some teams are tied (Minnesota and Portland for #5 and #6, New York, Charlotte and Sacramento for #8, #9 and #10), the NBA will have to adjust the number of balls. For example, usually the team ranked #6 gets 63 combinations and the team ranked #7 gets 43. As Minnesota and Portand are tied, you simply add the chances (63 + 43) and the two teams split the total number of combinations (106) from the sixth and seventh spots : 53 for each team.
We’ll do the same for Charlotte, Sacramento and New York (28 + 17 +11). We split the total (56) between them and get 18.66, after rounding team ranked first amongst those 3 teams (coin flip) will be rewarded with 19 combinations, the second will also be given 19 combinations and the third 18.


Here’s the final result :

#01 - Memphis---------22-60----------250 chances
#02 - Boston------------24-58----------199 chances
#03 - Milwaukee-------28-54----------156 chances
#04 - Atlanta------------30-52----------119 chances
#05 - Seattle------------31-51------------88 chances
#06 - Minnesota-------32-50------------53 chances
#07 - Portland----------32-50------------53 chances
#08 - Charlotte---------33-49------------19 chances
#09 - Sacramento-----33-49------------19 chances
#10 - New York--------33-49------------18 chances
#11 - Philadelphia-----35-47-------------8 chances
#12 - Indiana-----------35-47--------------7 chances
#13 - New Orleans----39-43--------------6 chances
#14 - LA Clippers------40-42--------------5 chances

Of course, the order between Minnesota/Portand and Charlotte/Sacramento/NY can change after the coin-flip. If NY wins the coin flip against SacTown and Charlotte, they will only get one additional combination (chance). The coin flip really matters only if the team didn’t win one of the top 3 picks.


Here are the lottery results (winners of #1 and #2) this decade :

2007 :
#1 pick = ?
#2 pick = ?

New York, 33-49 , ranked #8 tied with Charlotte and Sacramento, 18 or 19 combinations, from 2% to 4% chance to win the #1 or #2 pick. Keep in mind that the chances at the #2 pick depends who win the #1. For example if the worst team (Memphis) wins the #1 pick then Knicks chances to get the #2 pick will be higher (as 250 combinations won’t be eligible to win anymore). On the other hand, if the best team (LA Clippers) wins the #1 pick, our chances to get the #2 pick will be lower as that team only has 5 combinations.


2006 :
Toronto 27-55, ranked #5, 88 combinations, 8.80% chance to win the #1 pick.
New York, 23-59, ranked #2, 199 combinations, 18.78% chance to win the #2 pick.

2005 :
Milwaukee 30-52, ranked #6th, 63 combinations, 6.3% chance to win the #1 pick.
Atlanta 13-69, worst record, 250 combinations, 21.46% chance to win the #2 pick.

2004 :
Orlando 21-61, ranked #1, worst record, 250 combinations, 25.00% chance to win the #1 pick.
L.A. Clippers 28-54, ranked #4, 105 combinations, 11.31% chance to win the #2 pick.

2003 :
Cleveland 17-65, ranked #1, worst record tied with Denver, 225 combinations, 22.50% chance to win the #1 pick.
Memphis 28-54, ranked #6, 64 combinations, 7.20% chance to win the #2 pick.

2002 :
Houston 28-54, ranked #6, 89 combinations, 8.90% chance to win the #1 pick.
Chicago 21-61, worst record tied with GS, 225 combinations, 20.30% chance to win the #2 pick.

2001 :
Washington 19-63, ranked #3, 157 combinations, 15.70% chance to win the #1 pick.
L.A. Clippers 31-51, ranked #8, 29 combinations, 3.38% chance to win the #2 pick.

2000 :
New Jersey 31-52, ranked #7, 44 combinations, 4.40% chance to win the #1 pick.
Vancouver 22-60, ranked #4, 120 combinations, 12.71% chance to win the #2 pick.

As you can see, the odds of the Knicks winning either the #1 or #2 pick are slim but they do exist. The Knicks will be present at the lottery for the 4th time in 5 years, we never won the #1 pick until now so the more you stay in the lottery the more you’re likely to get a #1 pick one day. It might be this year if we’re unlucky. Chances are slim but you never know.
In 2002, the Knicks ended up in the lottery for the first time in ages and they had the 7th worst record. Yao Ming was the big prize for the winner of the number one pick that year. The Houston Rockets won the lottery, the winning combination was 13 - 8 - 11 - 4. One of the combinations the Knicks had was 13 - 8 - 11 - 6.
When the first 3 ping pong balls were drawn out of the bin, the Knicks were still in the race. If the last ping pong ball was 6 instead of 4, the Knicks would have won the lottery. Pretty close no ?


Now here’s how it works on lottery day :

The 2007 NBA draft lottery will be held Tuesday, May 22nd. The Lottery will take place in Secaucus, New Jersey.

The ball drawing machine is produced by Smartplay International. A representative of the company, probably Wayne Ryba, will be in the room to supervise the drawing and make sure the machine works well.

Before the drawing, Mark Manoff (or another representative) of Ernst & Young, will make sure that the ping-pong balls have been certified, weighed and sized.

Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a drum. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Prior to the Lottery, 1,000 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating Lottery teams by a computer. 1,001st combination doesn’t belong to any team. If this combination wins then the balls are replaced and drawn again.

The actual Lottery procedure will take place in a separate room (conference room 3A on the third floor of the NBA Entertainment building in Secaucus) prior to the national broadcast with NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm of Ernst & Young in attendance.

Upon entering the room, NBA’s General Counsel Jamin Dershowitz will describe all the lottery's rules. The league's vice president of events and attractions, Mike Kordonsky, will open a small black suitcase, complete with balls numbered 1 through 14, and will announce each number as he places it into the plexiglass hopper.

Then the switch will be flipped, the balls will start swirling and about 15 feet from the hopper, on the other side of the room, Mike Kordonsky, with a stopwatch in hand and his back turned to the machine, will decide the draw. After precisely 20 seconds of required mixing (it used to be 15), Mike Kordonsky will raise his hand a first time. Then he will re-raise his hand every ten seconds (it used to be five but now it’s ten) to yield the four-digit combination that corresponds to the team that receives rights to the overall No. 1 pick in the draft.

The league's executive vice president for legal and business affairs, Joel Litvin, will call out the numbers on each ball.

Immediatly upon hearing the numbers, all the room will look at the laminated paper boards to find out which team was assigned the winning combination.

The four balls will be placed back in the drum and the process is repeated to determine the number two and three picks.

The order of selection for the teams that do not win one of the top three picks will be determined by inverse order of their regular season record.

All team representatives, officials and all the people present will be required to stay in the room as long as the lottery results haven't been announced on stage and television. Phones, cells and pagers are allowed in the room but they must be turned off. A security guard is required to check the audience and report any member of the audience trying to communicate outside the room. All trips to the bathrooms and the minutes spent there are noted by the securiyty guard.

Following the drawing, team logo cards will be inserted into envelopes marked 1 through 3 and 5 through 14 by an Ernst & Young representative. These envelopes then will be sealed and brought on-stage, where the announcement of the Lottery results will be made by NBA Deputy Commissioner Russ Granik. A second representative from each participating team will be seated on-stage. Neither the Deputy Commissioner nor the team representatives will be informed of the Lottery results prior to the opening of the envelopes.

The team whose logo is in the last envelope opened will pick first in NBA Draft 2007.

This guy is amongst the Elite when it comes to posting.

Philly really ****ed up by winning so many games.

Posted by eViL:

So since Chicago technically doesn't own our pick, but rather, the right to swap -- does that mean that a Knicks representative will be there at the lottery? Wouldn't it be awesome if Isiah had to sit there for the whole drawing representing the Knicks, knowing that he's going to have to fork the pick over. Whoever televises the lottery could have a camera on Isiah the whole time. It'd be incredible.

Grunwald or Brandon Suhr will be there I'd wager.

I think it would be great if isiah, went and forget he had to hand the pick over and gave it a fist pump when the knicks win

this was a classic post by kos... In other words, Great.