Improvement can be a very subjective term. For instance, most of the time when we talk about a player's improvement, we tend to think in terms of this season versus last season. Almost unconsciously, we tend to view players' progress in discrete season-long blocks -- "He'll be better next season," we say, or "He couldn't make that jumper last season."
The league even gives out an award, the Most Improved Player trophy, to reward the player who has made the greatest year-to-year progress.
But here's the thing: players don't always develop in neat little 12-month jumps like our brains would prefer. And if we insist on seeing things that way, we do ourselves a huge disservice. Often, progress comes not in magical offseason surges, but in fits and starts during the course of the season, so that an individual is far more potent by Game 82 than he was in Game 1.
That's particularly true of the game's younger players, who need game experience to learn where to best apply their physical skills. And with the league as young as it will ever be -- remember, we're still working in the last batch of high schoolers -- we've seen an unusual number of players make exactly those strides.
From roughly the midpoint of the season, no fewer than 15 young players have made noteworthy progress, putting up numbers in the second half that far exceed what they did to start the season. (See chart; I've compared their PER before and after Jan. 22, which was roughly the halfway point of the season).
Today, I want to take a moment to honor that group -- which I'll call the "In-Season All-Improved" team. What they've done could have huge implications a year from now, presuming they're able to carry those gains into next season.
In addition, I'm going to cheat a little and add one veteran to the team at the end -- one who quietly has put up such shockingly good second-half numbers that we really need to address it.
But first, let's talk about all these young guys. The envelopes please:
In-Season All-Improved Team
PLAYER PER THROUGH PER SINCE CHANGE
JAN. 22 JAN. 22
Al Jefferson 17.05 21.62 4.57
Tyson Chandler 14.03 20.00 5.97
Walter Herrmann 2.60 17.54 14.94
Renaldo Balkman 10.83 20.36 9.53
Nene 13.97 18.69 4.72
Josh Smith 16.12 19.85 3.73
Tyrus Thomas 13.47 15.17 1.70
LaMarcus Aldridge 15.69 18.43 2.74
Andre Iguodala 17.29 19.25 1.96
Josh Boone 9.79 18.44 8.65
Ersan Ilyasova 9.83 15.39 5.56
Tarence Kinsey 4.07 12.27 8.20
Linas Kleiza 7.41 12.84 5.43
Sasha Pavlovic 7.21 13.23 6.02
Marvin Williams 9.90 13.18 3.28
1. Al Jefferson, Celtics
Pardon me while I pull a Rob Neyer here. Let's do a side-by-side comparison of two players, whom we'll call "Player A" and "Player B"
Player A: 20.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 2.2 bpg, 53.1-percent shooting
Player B: 19.5 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 54.7-percent shooting
Which player is doing better? Player B, right? Now suppose I told you that Player A is Elton Brand … and Player B is Al Jefferson since the All-Star break. Yes, really. And if you do this same exercise with any of the game's other top power forwards -- excluding the holy hoops trinity of Dirk, Duncan and KG -- you'll find Jefferson can hang with any of them.
It's been slow and painful at times, but Big Al has arrived. The 22-year-old has finally reduced the turnovers, fouls and defensive lapses enough to allow his dominating post skills to shine, and as a result he's been one of the few bright spots in a painful Celtics season. However, we may not see any more of him this year. Jefferson has a sore knee and since the Celtics want Greg Oden, er, I mean since the Celtics don't want to risk worsening his injury, it's possible they'll shut him down.
2. Tyson Chandler, Hornets
Enjoy P.J. Brown's expiring contract, Bulls fans. The Hornets will be content with a double-double every night from their 7-foot-1 24-year-old. Chandler could always rebound and defend, but what has to have Nokes fans really excited is his offensive development.
The notoriously all-thumbs center is hanging on to enough passes to get himself a few extra dunks every night. As a result he's averaging 12.7 points on scalding 65.4 percent shooting since the All-Star break. After putting up just one double-double in his first 13 games as a Hornet, he did it in 20 of his last 25 outings before excusing himself seven minutes into last night's game against Seattle. And believe it or not, he has the highest Rebound Rate of any player averaging more than 20 minutes a game.
3. Walter Herrmann, Bobcats
The Argentine forward languished at the end of the bench for most of the season, struggling to adjust to a new league and develop comebacks to all the Fabio jokes he hears on the road. But it appears he's gotten the hang of it.
Herrmann is shooting 58.6 percent since the All-Star break and has taken over a starting forward role thanks to Sean May's injury … unexpectedly making him the Bobcats' best rookie this season. He's also fueled one of the best stretches of the Cats' largely disappointing campaign -- they're 6-5 since he cracked the rotation in mid-March. Wednesday night's win over Washington was his fourth straight 20-point effort, and he's made more than half his shots in all four.
4. Renaldo Balkman, Knicks
Isiah Thomas has made more than his share of mistakes, but folks who were killing him for drafting Balkman got it wrong. The injury to Quentin Richardson has given Balkman more opportunity to prove it, and the high-flying rookie is making himself heard.
Since the All-Star break, his 40-minute averages are 14.0 points, 11.4 boards and 2.0 steals on 61.3 percent shooting -- including a 17-point, 16-rebound outburst in a losing effort against Philly Wednesday night. And check out that 20.36 PER since late January -- he's not a scorer, but he fills the stat sheet in so many other ways that he's still been a star.
5. Nene, Nuggets
After being roundly criticized for giving the Brazilian big man a six-year, $60 million deal in the offseason, the Nuggets may be getting the last laugh. He's been looking sprier with each passing week as his ne-knee recuperates from last year's season-ending injury, to the point that his stats this season are well ahead of what he did in his first three pro seasons.
Since the break, he's averaging 13.5 points, 8.3 boards and shooting 59.0 percent, and he's still gaining steam -- witness the 28 and 12 he hung on the Kings Wednesday night.
6. Josh Smith, Hawks
The one positive to Joe Johnson's injury is that it's allowed Smith to expand his repertoire offensively -- with Sunday's sweet crossover and up-and-under reverse layup against Chicago's Luol Deng being the latest surprising examples.
Settling for fewer jumpers and showing more confidence off the dribble, Smith averaged 20.3 points per game in March and shot 46.1 percent from the floor. He's raised his scoring average every month this season, and blocked 3.4 shots per game since the All-Star break to challenge Denver's Marcus Camby for the league lead. Such work should allow the 21-year-old to sign a rich contract extension this summer that would keep him in his hometown long term.
7. Tyrus Thomas, Bulls
I can't leave Thomas off this list after the weekend he had: a career-high 27 points against Cleveland on Saturday, followed by outleaping Atlanta's Josh Smith at the rim on two plays, one at either end of the court, in a win over the Hawks on Sunday. Throw in a 13-point, eight-rebound night in a 10-minute stint against Detroit on Wednesday, and the talent is obvious.
Moreover, check out these per-40-minute numbers since the break: 18.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, 3.0 blocks and 53.2 percent shooting. As difficult as he can be at times (witness Wednesday night's heave-ho), it's only a matter of time before he inherits P.J. Brown's starting power forward job, because he's just too good to keep out of the lineup.
8. LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers
The Blazers seemed strangely reluctant to use Aldridge at the start of the season, preferring to watch Joel Przybilla and Jamaal Magloire combine for four points and seven rebounds instead. That viewpoint has changed radically since the All-Star break, allowing Aldridge to showcase the skills that made him the second overall pick in the draft. In 19 games since the break, he's shot 53.0 percent and averaged 14.0 points, 7.3 boards and 1.6 blocks.
But here's my favorite stat: 0.8 turnovers. Aldridge has proved to be amazingly mistake-free at the offensive end for a rookie. Unfortunately, the Blazers might have to shut him down while the team looks into what may be a heart problem.
9. Andre Iguodala, 76ers
It's amazing what having the ball can do. Iguodala was miscast as a catch-and-shoot guy while watching Allen Iverson the last two seasons, but once Iverson was traded he got to show his stuff. Since a rough November -- in which he played all but two games with Iverson and had a triple-double in one of them -- Iguodala has shown he's a bona fide scorer and playmaker on the wings.
He's made steady improvement since, averaging 20 points each of the past two months and 5.9 assists per game since the All-Star break. Considering he's only 23 and is one of the league's most athletic players, there's still plenty of upside left to explore.
10. Josh Boone, Nets
New Jersey's first-round draft pick spent the first half of the season nursing a shoulder injury, and when he came back he got off to a slow start. But he's picked things up considerably of late, starting with a 10-for-10, 21-point effort in an overtime win against Charlotte.
Since then, he went 11-for-13 in a rout of Indiana and dropped 17 on Detroit's vaunted frontcourt in only 20 minutes. He's shooting 64.5 percent since the break and getting gobs of free throws; if he ever converts them (53.5 percent on the year) he'll be even more potent.
11. Ersan Ilyasova, Bucks
I'm glad to see Chad Ford's near-death Turkish restaurant experience wasn't for naught. Ilyasova, a Turkish Johnny Damon doppelganger, had gotten some crunch-time minutes early in the season, but more out of desperation by the injury-plagued Bucks than any sense that he could help.
However, things have started to click lately, with a definite "aha" moment coming when he threw down a jaw-dropping alley-oop dunk in Dallas. In his first season with regular playing time, the 19-year-old shot only 35.3 percent before the break, but has shot 43.8 percent since, including 50 percent on 3-pointers. Now that the Bucks have shut down all their frontcourt players (and I would be shocked, shocked I tell you, to learn this had anything to do with the fact that Kevin Durant and Greg Oden might be in this year's draft), Ilyasova figures to see plenty of action over the final two weeks.
12. Tarence Kinsey, Grizzlies
"Not a household name" doesn't quite do him justice. Until a few weeks ago, his name didn't come up even in Tony Barone's household. But that may be changing after the undrafted rookie from South Carolina put together a series of solid efforts in March.
He's topped 20 points five times in his last seven games, and like the other guys on this list, his post-All-Star break splits dwarf what he'd done beforehand. Additionally, he's a fantastic athlete who has shown a lot of promise at the defensive end.
13. Linas Kleiza, Nuggets
Linas has become George Karl's security blanket off the Nuggets' bench, improving his outside shot and defense to become a solid role player who feeds off all the attention paid to Melo and AI.
The second-year pro's scoring average and 3-point percentage have gone up every month, and at the same time he's become much more confident shooting from distance. More than half of his tries since the All-Star break have been from downtown, and he's made 45.5 percent. March was his best month yet; he averaged nearly a point every two minutes while saving his two best performances (career highs of 24 and 29 four days apart) for a pair of national TV games.
14. Sasha Pavlovic, Cavs
For three-plus years, Pavlovic has been a lot like the American preps-to-pros players of the last few years -- he's a good athlete who came to the league too young and had no idea what he was doing. But partway through this season, the light bulb went on, and the Cavs have benefited.
Pavlovic briefly fell out of Cleveland's rotation after a rough start, but he's come back with a vengeance since the new year. He shot 39.2 percent in November and only 22.2 percent in December, but in the three months since he's hit 50.9 percent, 47.1 percent and 46.5 percent. He's also cranked up the 3-point stroke, making over 40 percent in each of those three months, and is paying far greater attention to defense.
15. Marvin Williams, Hawks
OK, there's still a ways to go here … that's why he's 15th and not first. But Williams has been a much more aggressive offensive player ever since the fourth quarter of the New Jersey game on Feb. 7, when he got matched up against a bigger player and seemingly realized for the first time that he was allowed to dribble. He took 12 foul shots in the fourth quarter that night, and since then has been a steadier offensive weapon.
In equal minutes, he put up 11.9 points and 4.6 boards on 40.9 percent shooting before the break, and 13.3 points, 6.0 boards and 44.7 percent shooting afterward.
And finally, one veteran to cap off the team:
PLAYER PER THROUGH JAN. 22 PER SINCE JAN. 22 CHANGE
Antonio McDyess 11.33 23.26 11.93
Antonio McDyess, Pistons
Whenever a team's fortunes change, we invariably give all the credit to its newest arrival. In this case, I had been trying like crazy to figure out how the addition of Chris Webber could have had such a profound impact on Detroit's results when Webber's own production wasn't vastly different from that of the man he replaced, Nazr Mohammed.
Then I stumbled across McDyess' splits. Good golly, Miss Molly. Getting Webber was nice and all, but the real difference in Detroit was that the Dice Man suddenly remembered how to play basketball. The change in his numbers between the first two months and the last two has been phenomenal -- especially when you consider that his minutes have hardly budged.
In the first two months of the season, his production was positively Ostertagian: 5.4 points per game, 41 percent shooting, just half a block per night and an appallingly low free-throw rate for an interior player.
Compare that to what he's done since the All-Star break, and it's hard to believe it's the same player. McDyess' scoring has more than doubled, up to 11.3 points per game, and he's done it on 56.9 percent shooting. He's also earned nearly three times as many foul shots and tallied twice as many blocks and steals. Again, minutes weren't a big factor here -- he's just become massively more productive with the same playing time. As the chart shows, his PER has more than doubled since late January, and on a per-minute basis you could argue he's been Detroit's best player since then.
I don't know if I've ever seen a veteran player make such a massive midseason U-turn, and it's McDyess' newfound spunk, not Webber's arrival, that is the big reason the Pistons are positioned to retake the Eastern Conference crown.
4/5/2007 6:50 PM
