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Oden vs. Durant, Part 3
posted: Thursday, February 15, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry

A few weeks ago, after I wrote a column addressing Greg Oden vs. Kevin Durant, Bill Simmons e-mailed me and said he thought ESPN could devote a blog to the topic. (And Bill did start a basketball blog to cover this and other topics.)

I continue to be flooded with e-mail from readers about the Oden-Durant debate. Roughly 70 percent of my readers are pro-Oden, but the Durant supporters are louder.

A couple of updates are in order.

First, check out Nets president Rod Thorn's answer to "The Question of Fear" in Wednesday's podcast.

Thorn was the GM of the Bulls in 1984 and drafted Michael Jordan with the No. 3 pick. My question to him: If the Bulls had held the No. 1 pick, would he have taken Jordan or Hakeem Olajuwon?

Thorn's reply? "Hands down, Olajuwon."

He goes on to explain the thinking going into that draft and how the thinking in the NBA, despite Jordan's extraordinary success, hasn't changed that much. Big men are still more highly valued.

Also, I'm getting a lot of questions about why I have Oden ranked No. 1 on my Top 100 when I've said on several occasions that I believe Durant is a better player. (By the way, a number of the NBA executives and scouts agree with me about Durant.)

The reason is this: Of the 18 top NBA executives that I've spoken with on this issue, all but one told me that they'd take Oden No. 1 -- most of them without any hesitation.

The goal of my draft coverage on Insider is to give you a window into what NBA teams are thinking. Some ask for my opinion, too, and I offer it, but at the end of the day, it's the guys making the draft decisions who count. So until I start hearing from teams that they've changed their mind, Oden stays at No. 1.

Finally, here's an interesting argument from Mike Murano, an Insider reader at Harvard University (they're smart up there):

"I think one of the reasons that GMs and fans want Oden is that, as we always hear, there is a dearth of quality centers in the league.

"Here, we should take a nod from baseball, and consider their concept of VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). I agree that Durant is clearly an overall better talent. But is the difference between Durant and the average forward greater than the difference between Oden and the average center? Looking quickly over the league, we see many talented forwards compared with only a few top-of-the-line centers.

"In simpler terms, with the Lakers' championship teams, I liked Kobe much more than I liked Shaq (mainly because of work ethic, and the hypersensitivity of Shaq to criticism). However, I always had to admit if we replaced either of them with another pretty good player in their position, Shaq's team would always do better. (I'm thinking Cuttino Mobley or Richard Hamilton for Kobe, and Antonio Davis or Elden Campbell for Shaq.) For years, the difference between the best center and the average center has been much greater than the difference between the best guard and the average guard (yes, even Jordan.)."

John Hollinger made a similar point in the podcast last week. So I went and looked up his PER standings to see if the conventional wisdom that there are a lot more talented small forwards than centers was true.

If you define centers by guys who are playing the position, then there are eight players who have a PER better than 20.0 playing this season. If you subtract guys like Pau Gasol, Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh and Jermaine O'Neal (power forwards forced to play center on their team) then the number drops to two -- Tim Duncan and Emeka Okafor. We'd have to add Yao Ming to this number, too, if he were healthy. A few more centers -- Marcus Camby and Eddy Curry come to mind -- are also posting a PER well above the league average.

There are currently five small forwards with a PER at 20.0 or above: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter and Josh Howard. (Note: Michael Redd is also on the list, but since his primary position is the two, we'll exclude him.)

There are another five small forwards with a PER well above the league average: Caron Butler, Luol Deng, Ron Artest, Josh Smith and Andre Iguodala.

So it really depends on your definition of a center. Given that the league is moving to a more up-tempo style, maybe it's time to include guys like Howard, Stoudemire and Bosh in that category. If they are, the NBA isn't hurting for talent at the five position. If you don't count them -- and say that the fact that they are forced to play center is evidence of the dearth of great fives in the league -- then maybe the VORP idea makes some sense.

I know this -- it is certainly the perception in the league that Oden's position trumps Durant's talent.

One more thing. It's tough to deal with projections, but almost everyone I speak with thinks that in two to three years Oden will be the best center in the NBA, assuming things go well. Yes, better than Yao or Tim Duncan.

While I know some scouts believe Durant could duplicate that feat among NBA small forwards, I don't think anyone is ready to hand over that title any time soon, especially given the status of LeBron James and the improved play of Carmelo Anthony.