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MS
Posts: 27064
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Joined: 7/28/2004
Member: #724
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EAST STARTERS
Gilbert Arenas, G, Wizards
Arenas' non-selection a year ago was among the most indefensible All-Star snubs ever (he eventually made it as an injury replacement), but he needn't worry about a repeat.
Mr. Hibachi has pumped in 29.4 points per game, nailed multiple game-winning shots, and thrown his hat into the MVP ring while keeping Washington atop the Southeast Division.
Here's an added thought -- perhaps he should get an invite to the 3-Point Shootout too. Arenas is shooting 39.1 percent from downtown on nearly eight attempts a game, many of which are difficult off-the-dribble tries.
Dwyane Wade, G, Heat
He's not going to win the MVP award because of the Heat's record, but I am utterly convinced that Wade is the best player in the league, and that Miami would be about 5-37 right now without him.
Not only is he No. 1 in the NBA in PER, he's also a solid defender and a deadly player in late-game situations because of his ability to get a shot whenever he wants and his knack for getting to the line.
Lost in all his scoring exploits is how much he's helping those around him: He's quietly averaging 7.9 assists per game, making him seventh in the league and the runaway No. 1 among shooting guards.
LeBron James, F, Cavaliers
Cleveland has been a mild disappointment, and so has LeBron … but only because he helped raise the bar so high.
By human standards, James's 27-7-6 triple crown numbers would be jaw-dropping, and his durability makes him even more valuable -- he plays 41 minutes a contest and never misses games.
He's also made strides at the defensive end, helping Cleveland become one of the league's most improved teams at that end of the floor.
By the way, he just turned 22.
Chris Bosh, F, Raptors
He missed 12 games with a knee injury, but when healthy he's been the best power forward in the East.
Now that the Raptors have added some more beef in the frontcourt, he's been freed up to grab more rebounds, and Bosh is pulling down a career-best 11.1 boards a game despite playing fewer minutes.
And thanks to the help, he has Toronto positioned for its first playoff berth since Vince Carter left town.
Dwight Howard, C, Magic It's a close contest in the middle for the East between Howard and Jermaine O'Neal, but durability gives Howard the nod. (See below for more on O'Neal.)
The 21-year-old has a good shot at becoming the youngest player in league history to lead the league in rebounding, and his improved offensive output (19.0 points per 40 minutes, 56.4 percent shooting) has the resurgent Magic playoff bound.
EAST SUBS
Chauncey Billups, G, Pistons
Mr. Big Shot's numbers aren't quite as stellar as they were a year ago, but part of the reason for that is the Pistons have slowed their pace from "turtle" to "three-toed sloth" -- they're again 29th out of 30 teams in pace factor, and relative to the league are playing nearly a full possession per game slower than last season.
Nonetheless, Billups' effectiveness stacks up very well with his peers once we level the playing field, as his 22.61 PER indicates, and he's also a solid defender who can cover both guard spots.
Jason Kidd, G, Nets Kidd continues to defy the laws of aging, dragging the Nets back into the playoff race by averaging nearly a triple double -- 14.7 points, 9.1 assists and 8.4 boards -- and posting a rebound rate better than many of the league's power forwards.
His 43.5 percent shooting mark is a career high, and after an atypically slow-footed start to the season, his defense is once again among the best at his position.
New Jersey's rough start might have turned off some voters, but he's clearly deserving.
Vince Carter, G, Nets
OK, one guard spot left (for now), and here's where it gets tough.
Billups and Kidd were easy picks, but now we're down to Carter, Richard Hamilton, Joe Johnson, and Ben Gordon.
Gordon's candidacy is more a nod to Chicago's record than anything; he really doesn't stack up with the other three if we're comparing performance.
Among the rest, each has his share of strengths. Hamilton has been the most consistent of the three and his team has won the most games. Johnson is the best defender of the bench and would have better stats if he hadn't played hurt in late December.
Nonetheless, I'll go with Carter. The reports that he's having an off year have been exaggerated: His numbers are nearly identical to last season's, he hasn't missed a game, and he's in a virtual dead heat with Hamilton in PER thanks to his underrated contribution on the glass.
Michael Redd, F, Bucks
One of many Eastern stars to spend some time on the shelf, Redd was a no-brainer pick before hurting his knee, and in my estimation still an easy choice.
He's likely to be back in time for the game, he doesn't have a history of injuries that makes this part of a larger pattern, and his numbers (28.0 points per 40 minutes, 58.5 true shooting percentage, fourth-best PER in the East) are beyond reproach.
Here's the twist -- I'm taking him as a forward. He's played more minutes at small forward than at shooting guard because of Milwaukee's frequent small-ball lineups according to 82games.com, nearly two-thirds of his minutes have come at that spot.
Additionally, selecting Redd here helps us deal with the paucity of good forwards in the East.
Paul Pierce, F, Celtics
Currently sidelined with a foot injury and potentially on the shelf past the All-Star Game, Pierce would be easier to dismiss if he wasn't so glaringly better than the other candidates at this position.
His triple-crown averages of 27-7-4 pretty much dwarf the competition. Before the injury Pierce was again among the East's top players, and few doubt he'll return to that perch when he comes back.
Jermaine O'Neal, C, Pacers
As with Tim Duncan in the West, O'Neal is a center listed as a forward. He belongs on the team either way, but since we're required to choose a backup center he's the obvious choice.
A perennially underrated defender, O'Neal leads the NBA in blocked shots. Unlike a lot of other shot-blockers, he also takes a ton of charges.
He could be well on his way to some long-overdue recognition in this area, while his offensive output remains more or less All-Star quality.
Emeka Okafor, C, Bobcats
OK, now it really gets tough. We have room for one more player, and it can be from any position.
In addition to Johnson and Hamilton (mentioned above), our list of finalists includes Okafor, Washington's Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, and Chicago's Luol Deng.
Players from teams that are a few games over .500 tend to do disproportionately well in All-Star voting, especially when their competition is from a losing team, so I have a feeling the coaches will pull the lever for Hamilton, Butler or Deng -- particularly one of the latter two if they forget to choose Redd as a forward.
Nonetheless, Okafor is the right choice. He's become one of the league's best defensive players, ranking second in blocks, which explains how a team with Matt Carroll and Adam Morrison on the wings can rank in the middle of the pack in Defensive Efficiency. And he's quietly boosted his offensive effectiveness this year, shooting 53.0 percent from the floor.
Butler matches Okafor's output statistically but is totally, utterly outclassed as a defender, while Jamison similarly pales defensively and isn't in the same boat in terms of PER either. That leaves Deng as the last man standing, but Okafor has slight edges across the board -- he's a better defender and has better numbers at 16.7 points and 12.6 boards per 40 minutes.
In fact, the main frontcourt rival to Okafor in my mind isn't Butler or Deng -- it's New York's David Lee. Absolutely nobody is talking about him for an All-Star berth, but put his numbers side by side with any of these other forwards and tell me why he doesn't belong. He's shooting 60.6 percent from the floor, and despite playing only 30 minutes a game he ranks seventh in the NBA in rebounding, right ahead of Duncan.
At the very least he should be running away with the Sixth Man award, but people seem to be going out of their way to ignore him at the moment. (Good heavens, is it possible that a Knick can be underrated?) I'll take Okafor over Lee because of his defense, but this is a closer call than some might imagine.
As for Okafor against Johnson and Hamilton, they're all quite close in PER, and the former two have much more established reputations. This is important since we have to consider the possibility that Okafor's high field-goal percentage is a fluke.
Nonetheless, I'm picking him anyway. I think his defense has been that much of a factor, especially compared to somebody like Hamilton, and just because nobody watches Bobcats games doesn't mean we should ignore his accomplishments.
REALITY CHECK
Here's where I look at how my ballot syncs up with what's possible, factoring in the actual voting and injuries.
The fan voting in the East leaves things relatively uncomplicated. Shaquille O'Neal is going to be voted in as the starting center even though he's played only five games thus far, but that's OK because Pierce is unlikely to be available for the All-Star Game.
Just select Howard as a backup forward instead of a starting center (he's seen substantial time at power forward), choose Okafor as the injury replacement for Pierce, and the rest of the roster can remain intact.
The more problematic consideration is if Redd can't return in time for the shindig in Vegas, because there's only one other reserve forward on the roster at the moment. (I can't see choosing O'Neal or Okafor at that spot when they've played center almost exclusively.) That means we'd have to choose from among Butler, Deng and Lee. In that case, I'll go with Lee … even if his own coach would go with Channing Frye.
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1/25/2007 2:46 PM
wut?